After huge bombshell, what now?

After huge bombshell, what now?

By

LeRoy Goldman

Columnist

BlueRidgeNow.com

Times-News Online

November 20, 2016

In case you haven’t noticed, Donald Trump just pulled off a bloodless revolution. He took on an increasingly irrelevant and angry Republican Party and transformed it into a party that has a chance to govern successfully. It’s nothing short of remarkable.

No one contests that Trump came out of nowhere, or that his candidacy was regarded as an irrelevant joke even as he won primary after primary, or that the GOP believed with certainty that his quest was doomed and would implode. That they were all wrong and couldn’t see it illuminates their blindness and bullheadedness.

Trump’s genius was that he harvested the seeds of revolt that have been laying fallow ever since the stunning 1994 election when Newt Gringrich and his Contract With America enabled the GOP to capture the House for the first time in 40 years. But Gingrich and his insurgents were unable implement that contract. By the end of the Bill Clinton presidency, they were consumed by an impeachment proceeding that would flame out in the Senate.

A decade later, a new and even more radical collection of Republican House members, the tea party and then the freedom caucus, attempted to destroy Barack Obama. They failed spectacularly. At every important turn, the stimulus, Obamacare or shutting down the government, they came up short. Instead, they did manage to decapitate House Speaker John Boehner. They are a circular firing squad.

Throughout this turmoil, the leadership of the Republican Party has been exposed as utterly incapable of understanding or coping with a party coming apart at the seams. Makes no difference where you look — Boehner, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Reince Priebus, Mitt Romney, the Bush family or the GOP intelligentsia including Bill Kristol, George Will, Charles Krauthammer or Michael Gerson — they all assumed that Trump was toast, that their unholy alliance with the left would destroy him, and that business as usual would follow.

They are the ones who have put the previously dying Republican Party out of its misery. They are the ones who, in their self-satisfied smugness, are blind to the fury in the heartland that is now focused as much on them as it is on the insiders in the Democratic establishment.

There’s no way back to business as usual because Trump’s rise makes it evident that leaders can’t lead when the followers won’t follow. Trump’s candidacy succeeded because it tapped that fury. It’s that simple.

Trump was, of course, right in pounding away at the notion that the political system is rigged in such a way that the insiders benefit lavishly while the outsiders are left holding the bag. Exploiting that latent anger enabled Trump to expand the narrow base of the Republican Party into territory normally safe for Democrats. That’s what enabled him to win traditionally Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and probably Michigan. Absent that, he would have lost the election and become a ridiculed footnote in American political history.

Throughout the campaign, Trump showed no reluctance to confront directly the high priests of the Republican Party. That confrontation was perilous, brilliant and necessary if he was to have any chance of winning.

The best way to understand Trump’s willingness to confront the GOP’s leadership is to recall how much angst there has been throughout the campaign between him and House Speaker Ryan.

In mid-October, Stephen Collinson, Eugene Scott and Eric Bradner, writing in CNN Politics, said, “Donald Trump is launching a kamikaze mission — fracturing his own party four weeks before Election Day.” Trump lashed out at Ryan, accusing the GOP leadership of dooming his campaign. CNN called it an unprecedented meltdown by a presidential nominee.

But Trump was undeterred. He tweeted, “It’s so nice that the shackles have been taken off me and I can now fight for America the way I want to” and “Disloyal R’s are far more difficult than Crooked Hillary. They come at you from all sides. They don’t know how to win — I will teach them.” And that is precisely what Trump did on Election Day.

In January, President Trump, Speaker Ryan and Senate Leader McConnell will need each other in order to govern effectively. If they pull it off, a transformed Republican Party will have been created, one that can govern, not just gripe.

Governing effectively has all but disappeared given the extreme polarization of the American people. For Trump and the Republicans on the Hill, an acid test will come early: Obamacare. They can take the easy but wrong road and simply trash it. Or they can keep its worthy aspects, repeal its government-heavy approach, and not victimize the millions who now depend upon it.

How Trump deals with Obamacare will tell us whether or not a new and better day is dawning.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident. Reach him at :  

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Final of a three-part series. For parts one and two, see Friday’s and Sunday’s editions.

By:

LeRoy Goldman

Columnist

BlueRidgeNow.com

Times-News 11-07-2016

Get ready for Madam President

This is the 18th presidential election I have attempted to predict. It's a challenge in large part because polling data for months have shown that a very large majority of the American people don't want to see either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

Clinton is untrustworthy and an architect of the Washington that Americans have come to despise, a Washington designed to serve itself, not us. Meanwhile, Trump has proven he is not prepared by experience or temperament to be president.

That means we can be certain that, regardless of which of them wins Tuesday, America loses.

But before we get too uppity about how the blame for this sorry situation belongs in Washington, or with one or both of the political parties, or with too much cash from too few donors, or with the hackers in the Kremlin, let’s face the truth. Clinton and Trump are on the ballot because we put them there. We are the problem, and as long as we continue to deny that truth, there's no way out of the growing darkness in a polarized America.

But like it or not, we're going to be stuck with one of them.

The presidential election is actually the aggregation of 51 separate elections in the states and the District of Columbia. Voters in each jurisdiction will select electors who are pledged to one candidate or the other. Every state's number of electors is determined by its number of members in the House of Representatives, plus two for its senators.

In all, there are 538 electoral votes (435 House members plus 100 senators plus three for the District of Columbia). Winning the presidency requires at least a majority, 270.

If we look back at the past four presidential elections, an electoral voting pattern emerges. Typically the Democrats can count on winning 19 states and the District of Columbia with 247 electoral votes. The Republicans can count on winning 23 states with 191 electoral votes.

And then there are the eight swing states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, with 100 electoral votes. In 2000 and 2004, the GOP won most of the swing states. In 2008 and 2012, the Democrats won most of them.

This year, the swing states will be more evenly divided. Clinton can survive that, but Trump can't unless he wins at least one state from Clinton's blue fortress. The ones to watch are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

In all presidential elections, both candidates do whatever they think they can get away with to demonize their opponent. But Clinton has won this gutter fight. She's won it because she's had a secret and unexpected weapon — Donald Trump!

Trump has alienated women, Hispanics, African-Americans, Muslims, Jews, Asians, LGBTs, the disabled, independents and evangelicals. That's a tour de force, giving new meaning to Forrest Gump's mama's truism, “Stupid is as stupid does.”

In so doing, it appears Trump has forfeited his chance to win any of Clinton's blue states like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, and that likely dooms him. Republicans can afford to lose badly in cities like Philly, Detroit or Milwaukee, but not if they also lose badly in their surrounding suburbs by forfeiting the women's vote.

It's the lesson the GOP is incapable of learning, and its kiss of death.

However, over the past two weeks, Clinton's comfortable lead has all but vanished, to the dismay of her campaign and most of the media. It's worth noting that the Democrats, some Republicans and most of the press have been saying from the moment Trump declared his candidacy that he had no chance and would flame out. But saying it doesn't make it happen. And now Trump has momentum, and Clinton is playing defense.

The seemingly mysterious explanation for Trump's resiliency hides in plain sight. It's voter fury aimed directly at Washington. Trump's enduring strength is that he promises change, while Clinton is Washington by another name.

The unanswered question is whether he can overtake Clinton at the finish line. Probably not, but it's going to be close.

• Prediction: Clinton wins, but just barely. In addition to her base of 247 electoral votes, she carries Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Colorado (9) and Nevada (6) for a total of 279. Trump adds to his base of 191 electoral votes by carrying Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) and Iowa (6) for a total of 259.

• Caveat: I'm not betting the ranch on this prediction. If Trump snatches one of those three blue states in the Rust Belt, he'll win. If so, it would be an upset for the ages! Move over, Harry Truman.

• Bellwethers: What I'll be watching Tuesday night is the vote in the nation's two best presidential election bellwethers: Hillsborough County, Greater Tampa, Fla., and Vigo County, Terre Haute, Ind. If they both vote the same way, there's your winner.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident and welcomes comments.  Please contact me at:

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GOP will keep Senate ... barely

GOP will keep Senate ... barely

By:

LeRoy Goldman

Columnist

BlueRidgeNow.com

Times-News Online

November 6, 2016

Second of a three-part series. Coming Monday: Predicting the presidential race.

The Republicans currently control the Senate, 54-46. Thirty-four Senate seats are up this year. The Democrats are defending 10 and the Republicans are defending 24.

Thus the battle begins with the an advantage to the Democrats because they have fewer seats at risk. This is so because the last time these seats were up was 2010, and that was a Republican year as voters delivered a strong rebuke to President Barack Obama based upon their opposition to Obamacare.

In 2010, the Republicans picked up Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Arkansas. The four in the Rust Belt are now in varying stages of jeopardy. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s start with the Senate races that appear the easiest to call.

There are 24 such seats, 15 controlled by the GOP and nine controlled by the Democrats. In these states, I predict none will shift from one party to the other. Remember, incumbents seeking re-election typically have an enormous advantage over their opponents. In the main, that advantage is due to higher name recognition and because they have a far larger war chest from which to fund their campaigns.

The GOP will retain seats in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Utah. The Democrats will retain sets in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington.

Senate control, therefore, will be determined in the remaining 10 battleground states. Each of these contests is close enough so that their fate may well be significantly influenced by the top line vote for the presidency. And in the closing days of the campaign, the presidential race has tightened rapidly and significantly.

Battleground states

• Florida: Incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is opposed by Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy. Rubio has had a single-digit lead in the polls throughout the campaign. Keep your eye on the vote in Hillsborough County (Greater Tampa). The winner there will carry the Sunshine State. Rubio survives.

• Illinois: Incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk is opposed by Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. Kirk sleeps with the fishes in what has become the Royal Blue Land of Lincoln. A Democratic gain.

• Wisconsin: Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, a conservative firebrand, is opposed by former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Johnson loses. Democratic gain.

• New Hampshire: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is opposed by Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte has led by a whisker throughout much of the campaign. She’s tried to walk the tightrope of Trump I love you, I love you not. But she loses her balance. Hassan wins. Democratic gain.

• Indiana: Republican Congressman Todd Young opposes former Democratic Sen. and Gov. Evan Bayh for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Dan Coats. Indiana is a traditionally Republican state, and Young has managed to successfully brand Bayh as a card-carrying member of the Washington establishment. Bayh bites the dust. Young wins.

• Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey opposes Democrat Katie McGinty. McGinty benefits from the hammering Trump will take in the four suburban Philadelphia counties: Chester, Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery. Moderate Republican women in those suburbs reject Trump and Toomey with him. Democratic gain.

• Arizona: Republican Sen. John McCain is opposed by Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. McCain has run scared and run hard. It pays off next Tuesday. He wins.

• Missouri: Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is opposed by Missouri’s Secretary of State Jason Kander. Missouri is a normally Republican state and Blunt has maintained a small but consistent lead of a couple of points. Kander is a Washington outsider who has run a brilliant campaign. Blunt survives, but just barely.

• Nevada: Republican Congressman Joe Heck is opposed by Democratic former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. This is the battle to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Reid is all in for Cortez Masto. Reid’s ace in the hole are the votes of Hispanics in the 60,000-member culinary workers union, most of whom who work on the Vegas Strip. But this time Reid’s magic fails him and the Democrats. Heck wins. Republican gain.

• North Carolina: Republican Sen. Richard Burr is opposed by former N.C. Rep. Deborah Ross. Burr has cleverly exposed Ross as too far left for the Tar Heel State. He also benefits from a downturn in African-American turnout. Burr wins.

PREDICTION: Republicans 51, Democrats 49.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident and welcomes comments.  Please contact me at:

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House Predictions

Times-News columnist LeRoy Goldman shares election predictions in the first of a three-part series.

By LEROY GOLDMANTimes-News Columnist

* First of a three-part series. Coming Sunday: predictions of the U.S. Senate races.

The conventional thinking for months has been that the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives on Tuesday, but that their majority will be reduced.

Had FBI Director James Comey not dropped his bombshell last Friday concerning new and possibly pertinent information concerning the FBI investigation of possible misuse of classified material by Hillary Clinton when she served as secretary of state, I was prepared to argue that the conventional thinking might well have been off the mark. I was prepared to argue that there was a real chance the Republicans might see their majority in the House gutted or even obliterated by a wave election.

But what Comey did takes that option off the table. He informed Congress in a letter that the FBI had discovered new information possibly pertinent to its investigation of Clinton's home-brewed email system. That new information is in a computer owned by Anthony Weiner, estranged husband of Huma Abedin, one of Clinton's closest political advisers who worked for her at the State Department.

Comey's letter, an October Surprise if there ever was one, will significantly affect the campaign's closing days, expose the internal intrigue within the FBI and between it and its Department of Justice superiors, and possibly have deleterious legal consequences for Clinton and/or her closest aides.

But Comey's letter was brief and opaque, and for good reason. He and the FBI don't yet know what's in the hundreds of thousands of new emails it has discovered.

But here's a capsule summary of what we do know: Last July, Comey held a news conference and then testified before Congress that no reasonable prosecutor would bring charges against Clinton concerning her handling of classified information on her private email system. He did, however, state that she was “extremely careless.” For that, Democrats praised Comey and Republicans condemned him. Regardless of that divergence of reaction, the matter seemed to be closed.

But the FBI was also conducting a completely independent investigation aimed at determining whether Anthony Weiner had been sexting with an underage girl. In that respect, the FBI took possession of Weiner's computer. On it were discovered hundreds of thousands of emails from Abedin that may be pertinent to the FBI's investigation of Clinton.

Comey's letter to Congress alerted it and the public of the FBI’s new discovery. The Clinton campaign and Democrats have now turned their heavy artillery on Comey, alleging he's trying to improperly influence the presidential election.

That allegation is nonsense. But understanding why Comey did what he did is crucial. Comey's letter to Congress was the best of only bad options for him. This is so because there are in the FBI those who believe Comey should have recommended criminal charges against Hillary Clinton last July. Their growing angst now borders on rebellion.

Had Comey not gone public, he risked the information being leaked to the media by the dissidents in the FBI. Then it would have appeared he was concealing the information and covering for Clinton. To his credit, he did not allow that to happen.

What no one yet knows is the content of the emails on Weiner's computer.

But this much is clear. The focus of the election has now shifted from Donald Trump to Clinton, and that's bad for her. That means voters are being reminded of something most already believe: Clinton is untrustworthy.

That won't cause most Democrats to not vote for her. But it will energize Republicans and will likely increase their turnout. And that will likely narrow the gap between Trump and Clinton nationally and in the battleground states.

And lastly, it will benefit down-ballot Republican candidates for the House and the Senate.

That's what saves the day for the GOP House majority. The GOP currently controls the House 247-188. For the Democrats to reclaim the House majority, they have to gain a net of 30 seats. It's not happening. Prediction: Republicans: 231 (-16 seats), Democrats: 204 (+16).

Watch this subset of vulnerable Republican-held seats. The Democrats would have to win virtually all of them, and others like them, to threaten the Republican majority:

1. Florida-26, Miami-Dade, Carlos Curbelo.

2. Iowa-3, Southwest, Des Moines, David Young.

3. New Hampshire-1, Southeast, Manchester, Frank Guinta.

4. Illinois-10, Chicago, Northern suburbs, Robert Dold.

5. New York-24, Upstate N.Y., Syracuse, John Katko.

6. Florida-7, North of Orlando, John Mica.

7. Virginia-10, Northern Virginia, Washington suburbs, Barbara Comstock.

8. Michigan-7, Southern Michigan, Ann Arbor suburbs, Tim Walberg.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident. Reach him at:

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The Donald's bid is now history

The Donald's bid is now history

By

LeRoy Goldman

Hendersonville Times-News
October 16, 2016

Most Americans share a common set of beliefs about the 2016 presidential election. They don’t want to vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton because, for very different reasons, they don’t believe either of them is qualified to be president.

Trump has had plenty of time to demonstrate that he has the temperament, demeanor and policy chops to be an effective president. He failed. In fact, it’s worse than that. It’s not simply that he tried and failed. It’s that he hasn’t even tried. And it makes no difference whether the explanation for his lack of effort is because he’s too lazy or too self-absorbed.

Clinton has had plenty of time on the campaign trail and for decades prior to that to demonstrate that she can be trusted. There can be no doubt that she has spectacularly failed the trust test. Her trail of untrustworthiness is so long and so blatant that it is breathtaking.

For more than a quarter-century, Clinton has been twisting the truth for a single purpose — her own political and pecuniary advantage. There’s been Whitewater, the sacking of the White House Travel Office staff, outsized profits from commodity trading, false claims of being under sniper fire in Bosnia, the deception surrounding the attack in Benghazi, and most recently there’s the matter of “pay for play” regarding the Clinton Foundation and her use of a home-brewed email system when she served as secretary of state.

The thread that ties all of this behavior together is best captured in Clinton’s own words in one of her speeches to Wall Street banks that have recently come to light thanks to WikiLeaks. Clinton stated, “But if everybody’s watching, you know, all of the backroom discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position.”

Translated into plain language, Clinton is saying, look, I can’t afford to trust the American people with the truth so I’ll feed them something other than the truth in order to make things work for me. Or more simply, I get to lie when it serves my purpose. Clinton is a serial liar, and that makes her dangerous, too dangerous to be president. No wonder only about 11 percent of the American people believe Clinton is honest and trustworthy.

However, thanks to Trump, she’s on her way to the White House. He has become her ticket to ride. By successfully demonizing Trump, she has managed to minimize the vulnerability she faces on the trust issue. And Trump has accommodated her at every turn. The irony of that reality is stunning and surreal.

But the recent release of the 2005 tapes containing Trump’s vulgar comments about women as sex objects may turn out to be the straw that breaks the backs of both camels, Trump and Clinton. Wouldn’t that be lovely!

The only way Trump can achieve something of value out of his star-crossed quest is to step aside. I know he has said there is “zero chance” he will drop out of the race. I know he’s tweeted, “I will never drop out of the race, will never let my supporters down!” But I will not be surprised to see him drop out.

He faces a stark, binary choice. He can stay the course and suffer a historic and humiliating defeat, or he can get out of the way and bask in the afterglow of having demolished a Republican Party incapable of governing the nation while at the same time having sown the seeds of its rebirth.

Stop for a moment and contemplate how different were the insurgent efforts led by Trump and Bernie Sanders during the primaries this year. Both challenged ruling oligarchs and bureaucrats in their respective parties. Both called for nothing short of a revolution. At the outset of their crusades, neither was taken seriously by their parties, the media, the lobbyists or the general public.

Everybody underestimated what fueled their respective candidacies: voter fury aimed at Washington.

But by the end of the primaries last spring, Trump had won while Sanders had failed. Sanders ended up with his tail between his legs, urging his supporters to rally behind Clinton. Many of them feel betrayed. Many will not vote for Clinton. In fact, the day of reckoning for the Democratic Party has only been delayed.

But Trump and his supporters won the day. The GOP now must reform itself or die. If Trump gets out of the line of fire, he preserves the focus on the forthcoming reformation. If he stays the course, the focus will become his humiliation at the polls on Nov. 8.

LeRoy Goldman welcomes comments,  is a Flat Rock resident, and can be reached  at:

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