Will the GOP fumble 2016?

 Will the GOP fumble 2016?

By LeRoy Goldman 

The Charlotte Observer

Special to the Observer

If you don’t count George W. Bush’s presidency, and I don’t, by 2016 it will have been 28 years since the American electorate was willing to trust the Republicans with the presidency. That’s a very long drought, and the GOP has been incapable of figuring out how to end it.

“W’s” presidency doesn’t count because of how he was elected, and, much more importantly, because of how he governed after taking office. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 by more than a half million votes. The electoral vote came down to Florida, and Bush prevailed when the Supreme Court in 7-2 and 5-4 decisions gave him Florida. Regardless of whom you think won that election, President Bush doomed the GOP when he preemptively attacked Iraq. Not only did he attack the wrong country, he and his Republican allies on the Hill put the costs of Iraq and Afghanistan on the national credit card. The national debt skyrocketed, Wall Street got away with murder, and by 2008 the economy was in free fall. The Republicans had become their own worst enemy.

In 2008 any Democrat would have trounced any Republican. By 2012 even a weakened and ineffective President Obama had little trouble dispatching Mitt Romney who raced far to the right in the GOP primaries to appease the party’s extremists and thereafter was never able to establish his footing in the general election.

Left to their own suicidal devices the Republicans are now gearing up to lose in 2016, an election that history tells us should be theirs for the taking. Looking back over more than a half century makes plain that after two terms the American people usually turn the White House over to the opposition party. Given the fact that President Obama has been one of the most polarizing presidents ever, that most Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track, and that Hillary Clinton is loaded with partisan baggage, there should be little doubt about a forthcoming Republican victory next year.

But Hillary Clinton is a savvy and cunning politician. She smells victory. There’s a good chance she’s right because the Democrats have a decided edge in the Electoral College and because of the GOP’s suicidal instincts.

In the Electoral College the Democrats have a virtual lock on 19 states and the District of Columbia, giving them 247 of the 270 necessary votes for victory. Only eight states with 100 electoral votes are legitimate swing states. Of these Florida is the biggest prize with 29 electoral votes. That means, if the Democrats hold their Blue Fortress and win Florida, they win.

There are more than 20 Republicans who are considering running in 2016. Most of them will willingly race to the right in the primaries to court the party’s narrow and frenetic base. None of them, if nominated, can win. What the GOP needs to get a grip on is that in order to really repeal and replace Obamacare, in order to be in a position to nominate multiple justices to the Supreme Court in the coming years, and in order to restore the nation’s standing in the world, there is no substitute for winning the White House.

The only Republican in the current Republican Clown Car who can do that is Jeb Bush. Right Wing darlings like Rand Paul, Scott Walker and Ted Cruz are just what the doctor ordered for Hillary Clinton. Moreover, Jeb Bush can carry Florida. And that makes the race for the White House competitive!

The final piece of a Republican winning strategy is to deny the Democrats a key state in their Blue Fortress. That state is Michigan with its 16 electoral votes. Jeb Bush can deliver a message on jobs, energy independence and rebuilding America’s infrastructure that will resonate in states like Michigan and Ohio.

If Bush selects former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers to be his running mate, the door to victory swings open. In Congress until last year, Rogers was the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, a position that requires an ability to work across the aisle.

His expertise in intelligence, terrorism and defense is the perfect complement for Jeb Bush and his resume. Rogers is currently CNN’s National Security Commentator. He’s articulate, ambitious and young enough to seek the presidency in 2024.

Soon we’ll know if the adage, Stupid Is As Stupid Does, remains alive and well in the GOP.

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Small number to decide Hillary's fate

 ME AND MY SERVE-HER

Small number to decide Hillary's fate 

By LeROY GOLDMAN
Guest columnist

BlueRidgeNow.com Times-News Online

Published: Tuesday, March 17, 2015 at 4:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Monday, March 16, 2015 at 3:16 p.m.

Hillary Clinton is going to run for president. When she announces, millions will be ecstatic, and millions will fulminate at the mouth. She will win the Democratic nomination. But will she win the general election? I doubt it.

For the past two decades, America has become increasingly polarized. That polarization has hamstrung the federal government. The event that lit the fuse was aversion to Hillarycare in 1993-94, the health care reform plan that she, as first lady, devised. Opposition to her health care plan was so intense that it enabled the Republicans to win the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years (the Gingrich Revolution).

Bill and Hillary Clinton responded by declaring war against their enemies, who the first lady called the “vast right-wing conspiracy.” And the GOP became obsessed with its effort to drive Clinton from office.

George W. Bush accelerated the descent into the partisan abyss with his pre-emptive war in Iraq and profligate spending. The Bush administration sputtered out as the national economy imploded.

In 2007, then-Sen. Hillary Clinton launched her bid for the White House. She was the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party and the odds-on favorite to win the general election. But because of her vote for the Iraq War, her imperiousness and a horribly badly run campaign, Barack Obama won it all.

President Obama took office in 2009 having promised the nation he would end partisan gridlock, a promise he did not know how to keep, and didn’t. Opposition to his stimulus and health care reform proposals in 2009 enabled the GOP to take back the House in 2010. But more than that, Obama’s unforced errors gave the nascent tea party the issues it needed at exactly the right time.

The GOP steamroller went way beyond the 63 House seats it gained in 2010. Data from the Pew Research Center show the carnage inflicted on the Democrats in the 2010 and 2014 elections. In 2009, the GOP controlled both legislative chambers in only 14 states. Today it controls 30 states, having gained more than 900 state legislative seats. That has enabled the Republicans to gerrymander so many House districts that it will take a miracle for the Democrats to recapture the House before 2022 at the earliest. And that’s beyond the first term of the next president!

The ensuing polarization has brought the government to its knees. And while most Americans say they want an end to it, they themselves give it life. Conservatives have disappeared from the Democratic Party, and there are hardly any moderates left in the GOP. These two homogenous political mastodons hate each other. Their cause celebre is to destroy one another. Failing that, their real objective is to ensure their re-election by feeding their constituents the red meat they unthinkingly relish and devour.

Into this maw now comes Hillary Clinton. Her campaign will attempt to reach women just as Obama’s campaigns reached African-Americans. It will be about shattering glass, especially in the White House.

Most Americans believe their vote for president matters. Except for voters in only eight states, it doesn’t. North Carolina is one of the eight. The other seven are Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

When you couple polarization with the winner-take-all workings of the Electoral College, it’s clear right now that Clinton will win 19 states, the District of Columbia and 247 of the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory. It’s just as clear that the Republican nominee will win 23 states and 191 electoral votes. The next president will be the candidate who can push his or her electoral vote total to at least 270 in the remaining eight swing states.

In 2012, those eight states cast only 27.5 million votes of the 122 million votes nationwide. And in those decisive states, it’s reasonable to assume that about 80 percent of the voters were partisan Democrats or Republicans. Thus, the winner was really determined by the roughly 5.5 million swing voters in those eight states. In 2012, most of them voted for President Obama.

But those 5.5 million swing voters are the voters who really are disgusted with the deleterious effects of gridlock and polarization. And in 2016 most of them will vote to end it.

In 2008, they were willing to take Obama at his word that he would end gridlock. They got burned, and now they’re the wiser for it. A similar campaign promise from Hillary with the baggage she carries will fall on deaf ears. And that’s why she likely will come up short.

There is, however, an important caveat to this scenario. There are more than 20 Republicans considering a run in 2016. Some of them are mainstream conservatives. Others are ideologues of the far right. If one of the far right doctrinal purists were to win the GOP nomination, Hillary’s lifelong quest will be realized.

It’s ironic, but Hillary Clinton’s best chance of becoming president rests in the hands of her enemies, not her own.

If she does prevail, here’s the complete text of her inaugural address in January 2017: “My Fellow Americans, I’ve got a pen, and I’ve got a phone.”

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident. Please contact me at:

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GOP vulnerable to Obamacare boomerang

LeRoy Goldman, Guest columnist 12:50 p.m. EST March 6, 2015
Ashville Citizen-Times

Whether you love or hate Obamacare, there’s no denying that the process by which it was enacted and implemented has left almost everything to be desired.

President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies on Capitol Hill have paid a terrible political price for the bitterly partisan, incompetent, and deceptive manner by which this program, which proposes to reform one-sixth of the nation’s economy, was created. Contrast Obamacare with the enactment of Social Security, the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, and Medicare and Medicaid. All of those controversial laws had significant Republican votes on final passage. All have endured for decades. But not Obamacare. It had no Republican votes on final passage. And one way or another it will not endure.

Vitriolic public opposition to Obamacare cost the Democrats control of Congress. It has neutered Obama. Amazingly, it was a self-inflicted wound. But what is not yet obvious is the clear and present danger that Obamacare’s demise poses for the Republicans if the Supreme Court invalidates its tax subsidies in the 34 states that did not establish their own exchanges.

Last Wednesday the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on King v. Burwell, the case in which the challengers argue Obamacare subsidies in the form of tax credits are impermissible in those 34 states. An IRS regulation promulgated in 2012 currently makes the subsidies available in all states.

The challengers base their argument on Section 1401 of the law, which says subsidies are to be available only to people, “which were enrolled through an Exchange established by the State.” The act makes no mention of subsidies for people who enroll in states in which the exchange was established by the federal government.

Contrary to popular belief, the central issue this case presents is not the constitutionality of Obamacare, nor whether a ruling in favor of the challengers will create the conditions that trigger a death spiral for the statute. No, the central issue before the High Court is the integrity of the Constitution’s Doctrine of Separation of Powers. The IRS regulation under assault by the challengers amounts to executive branch lawmaking and spending, powers the Constitution vests only in Congress. The Obama administration now wants the Supreme Court to legitimize its unlawful behavior, thus setting a precedent that future presidents could use to aggrandize their power.

The best and ultimate line of defense for the Constitution’s Doctrine of Separation of Powers is the Supreme Court. In 2012 Chief Justice Roberts said, “the Framers created a Federal Government of limited powers, and assigned to this Court the duty of enforcing those limits.” When the court rules on King, we will know if he meant it.

Let’s suppose he did, and the court rules in favor of King. Then the GOP will have to put up or get hammered by the voters in 2016. The Democrat’s reaction to the Obamacare death spiral that a Court ruling in favor of King will trigger will be swift, unrelenting, and merciless. They and their allies in academe and the media will blame the Republicans for abruptly terminating insurance coverage for millions who can no longer afford it without subsidies. They will portray the GOP as heartless and uncaring. Those charges, if not answered promptly and effectively, will stick.

The GOP’s defense will likely be the legislation that Sens. Hatch, Alexander and Barrasso are preparing. It won’t work. It will lack specificity, not be comprehensive and will be opposed by all Democrats. It will be filibustered in the Senate and/or vetoed by Obama.

What the GOP needs is a bipartisan solution that has a proven track record of success. How about one with 55 years of success: the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP)?

Prior to Obamacare it was the largest health insurance program in America. It covers about eight million people nationwide. It’s voluntary, thus no tax penalties. Its premiums are subsidized. It has comprehensive coverage, bars discrimination against pre-existing conditions, and offers multiple choices among many fee-for-service and HMO plans. It is administered by the federal government working cooperatively with private insurers. FEHBP has been an enormous success. It has no enemies.

The Republicans should propose it as their alternative to Obamacare. Most congressional Democrats will vote for it. There will be no filibuster. If a petulant Obama were to veto it, his veto would be overridden. Its enactment would demonstrate that the GOP can compromise, legislate and govern. It’s a gridlock killer.

Goldman lives in Flat Rock. He was member of the federal government’s Senior Executive Service for many years.

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