AND THE VOTERS SAID, “YOU'RE FIRED”
LeRoy Goldman
October 29, 2020
The outcome of the election November 3rd is best understood by knowing that it's going to be determined by a collision between the former host of The Apprentice and Forrest Gump. More on that below.
History doesn't help us much in predicting whether an incumbent president seeking reelection wins a second term. Since World War II, there have been plenty of examples of happy and unhappy such outcomes. Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson read the tea leaves and chose not to seek a second term. Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush tried and failed. However, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all won second terms. Now comes Donald Trump. What fate awaits his pursuit of a second term? And how will that affect or not the down ballot races for Congress and State governments?
If Donald Trump's triumph in 2016 teaches us anything, it teaches us a lesson in humility. Remember that nobody gave Trump a chance to win four years ago. And that long list of those who wrote him off not only included elections experts, political pollsters, academics, newspaper editorial boards, and television talking heads, it also included Trump's inner circle of advisers, his Campaign staff, and Trump himself.
I've been predicting presidential elections since 1948 and Congressional elections since the early 1970s. My track record is exemplary and better than most of the “experts”. That's because I have a secret weapon most of them don't. I do my very best to not infect my predictions with the outcome I want to occur. Too many of the “experts” either unwittingly or intentionally do not exercise that discipline. For them their analysis starts with their personal bias and reasons (predicts) backwards. If that's your cup of tea, read the New York Times or the National Enquirer or listen to Rachael Maddow or Sean Hannity.
So here are current examples of what I'm walling off in the predictions that follow. I don't believe Donald Trump is fit for the office he holds. I don't believe he is capable of getting beyond his own self interest to the interests of the American people. I believe that Joe Biden is way beyond his prime and thus no longer capable of leading and healing a nation torn apart by polarization unlike anything we've witnessed since the Civil War. And I don't believe that Joe Biden will be able or willing to successfully resist the far left forces that control the Democratic Party with beliefs that are rooted in reverse racism and sexism.
That said, I also got it wrong in 2016. I predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. I also said that, if Trump broke through in the traditionally Democratic states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he'd win. And that's exactly what happened.
In order to begin to try to figure out whether that kind of unexpected breakthrough might happen this November it's worth looking back at how Trump won in 2016 by breaking into the Democrat's Blue Fortress and winning those three Rust Belt states.
Given the growing and now almost complete polarization of the American electorate, we knew in 2016 and we know today how most states will vote before a single vote is cast. This polarization, which has been inexorably expanding for more than a quarter century, has now produced two Americas that distrust and loathe one another. It's lethal and it is the clearest and most present danger the nation faces. But that zero-sum game is not the subject of this paper.
In 2016 it was assumed that the Democrats would carry 19 states and the District of Columbia with 247 electoral votes. This was their Blue Fortress. The Republicans assumed they would carry 23 states with 191 electoral votes, their Red Fortress. That left the 8 Swing states of New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada with their 100 electoral votes. Since it takes at least 270 electoral votes to win the White House, you can see how the Democrats had an advantage. They only needed 23 electoral votes from the Swing States to win. The GOP, however, needed 79.
Trump won four of the eight Swing States with 68 electoral votes, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Close but no cigar! But then Trump did what no one, including Trump, his campaign, and the nation's pollsters saw coming. He broke into the Blue Fortress and won the 46 Electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He won them by the narrowest of margins. Trump prevailed in those Rust Belt states by 77,000 votes out of a total vote cast of over 13,000,000. That's less than one-half of one percent. Can he pull the rabbit out of the hat again on November 3rd?
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
For openers we need to understand that the list of Swing States this year is not the same eight states it was in 2016. Now it includes seven of those from 2016 and six more. Virginia is now reliably Democratic thanks mainly to the huge Democratic margins the party rolls up in vote rich Fairfax County in Northern Virginia. This prosperous County just south of Washington DC, boasting a population of over 1.1 million, gives the Democrats more than they need to secure Virginia's 13 electoral votes.
In addition, thanks to the shocking results four years ago, we need to add Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to the list of Swing States.
And finally the states of Georgia, Arizona, and Texas are no longer reliably Republican. They have become Swing States.
Thus the Red Fortress now contains 20 states and 126 Electoral votes. The Blue Fortress now contains 17 states and the District of Columbia with 214 Electoral votes. Now there are 13 Swing States with 198 Electoral votes.
Donald Trump's amazing victory in 2016 can best be explained and understood by focusing on two factors: that he faced a vulnerable adversary in Hillary Clinton and that he was able to energize and bring to the polls a large cadre of individuals who hadn't voted in quite some time. Let's call them the Forgotten Americans. Most of them were white, older, and many were former Democrats.
Once it became clear that 2016 would be a choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump I began asking folks if they were OK or not OK with those two choices. Every single time I put that question before voters of all stripes the answer was the same. People were not happy with either choice.
Clinton had already proved herself to be a terrible campaigner. She had sought the Democratic nomination in 2008, and started the effort as the prohibitive favorite. She blew it as the upstart, Barack Obama, secured the nomination and went on to the White House. During that battle Clinton chose to make little or no effort in the states that held caucuses. Those are the states where Obama built a lead in delegates that Clinton was never able to overcome. There's only one way to describe Clinton's decision to ignore the caucus states—stupid.
By 2016 Clinton was again the front runner for the Democratic nomination. But she turned out to be her own worst enemy. Many voters perceived her to be haughty and condescending. Many concluded that she felt she was owed the Democratic nomination and the Presidency. This nation's birth has taught us to be profoundly skeptical of the Divine Right of Kings or Queens.
The best example of how the Forgotten Americans were instrumental in putting Trump in the Oval Office is how he carried Pennsylvania. Democrats have carried the Keystone State for decades by piling up huge majorities in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and also doing exceedingly well in the suburban counties surrounding Philly. Republicans win handily throughout the rest of the state. But normally that's not enough to overcome the Democratic vote from the two major cities and their suburbs. Trump however successfully energized a much larger than normal turnout in Pennsylvania’s small towns and rural areas. Many of these traditional non voters were former Democrats and union members who have been passed over by the longstanding recession caused by manufacturing job losses in Pennsylvania and other Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump gave them hope and a renewed cause to vote. Whether that will again be the case in 2020 remains to be seen.
From the moment that Donald Trump began his quest for the presidency he was a polarizing and unique phenomenon. His unceasing and personal onslaught aimed as his many rivals for the GOP nomination amounted to nothing less than a scorched earth campaign. None of his rivals could find an effective countervailing strategy to turn his ceaselessly marauding attacks to their advantage.
Having secured the Republican nomination, Trump unleashed his fury on Hillary Clinton. It too worked, although the nation did not realize it until the votes were counted on election day. Trump's triumph stunned the nation. As it became clear that he was the President elect, the Never Trump movement was born.
The question left unanswered was whether he would change course and reach out to all Americans once he was sworn in on Inauguration Day. His inaugural address answered that question with a resounding, NO. How dumb was that!
His answer was a strategic and lethal blunder. It was stupid, and here's why. On the day he took the oath of office Trump's approval rating was 40%. That should have told him that he had work to do in order to have the support necessary to enable him to successfully bring about the monumental changes in Washington that he had promised the voters as he campaigned throughout 2016. Draining the Swamp and Making America Great Again could only be accomplished with an extraordinary amount of skill, compromise, yes, compromise, and luck. It turns out Trump has benefited from none of the above. Throughout his term in office his approval rating has been stuck in the 40s. Ignoring the fact that more than half of the American people disapprove of your conduct as president is not only narcissistacally unthinking, it's a recipe for defeat.
Trump's response to the corner he painted himself into has been predictable and utterly counter productive. He has worked tirelessly and successfully in throwing red meat to his base supporters who will blindly follow him over the cliff this November 3rd. His incessant Tweet Storms may work as anesthesia for his ardent followers. But they bear no resemblance to a governing strategy for a nation torn apart by polarization. Finally, Trump's chances for reelection were slim to none before the Corona virus infected America and crippled our economy. His response to the pandemic has been a tragic joke, and the vote of no confidence that is on the wing will seal his fate.
Any elected official with approval numbers stuck in the 40s knows that he must broaden his base or face defeat. Even a cigar store Indian with no electrical activity between his ears knows that if he gets 45% of the vote and his opponent gets 55% of the vote, he loses!
Any yet that is precisely what Trump has done for the last four years. The price of only throwing red meat to his base, while belittling and humiliating his enemies, has had the effect of alienating large swaths of the American people, including principally women, seniors, minorities, and suburbanites. Taken together they constitute a large majority of voters in America. With a large minority of their support and that of the Trump base the president would have had a fighting chance at Making America Great Again, and reaping the benefit of a second term to continue that herculean effort. Absent that it curtains.
Recent polling is replete with data that documents the hole the president has dug and is continuing to dig for himself. Here's a sampler of these devastating data.
In 2016 Trump defeated Clinton in the nation's suburbs by 4%. But in the 2018 Congressional election the GOP was butchered in suburban districts all across the nation. The Republicans lost 37 of its 69 suburban congressional seats. In losing those seats the GOP lost the House of Representatives. In most of those districts Republicans, especially Republican women, chose not to vote or voted Democratic. They did so for two basic reasons vehement opposition to the president's failure to put forth a comprehensive alternative to Obamacare and/or because they simply couldn't contain their fury at the president's assault on women. They took his boorish behavior toward women personally. Since having lost the House two years ago has the president changed course in respect of women? In a word, no! Not smart!
In Pennsylvania, the normally Democratic state that sealed Trump's breathtaking 2016 victory, polling shows him losing the Keystone state's suburbs to Biden by an astonishing 26%. Unsurprisingly polling data also show similar results with women, regardless of whether or not they reside in suburbs. A recent ABC/Washington Post national poll shows that Biden leads Trump 59% to 36% among women likely to vote.
You want more? You have to go back to the Clinton election in 1996 to find a Democrat who won a significant majority of the senior vote. And seniors make up one-fourth of all voters. But a recent NBC News/Wall Journal poll had Biden up by a jaw-dropping 27 points among voters over 65. In 2016 Trump carried the senior vote by 7%. While multiple factors undoubtedly account for the fact that seniors are deserting Trump, make no mistake about it, the heart of the problem is the Corona Virus epidemic and the haphazard way in which the Trump Administration has bungled coping with it. Recall that last Spring the President stated, “it'll go away when the weather warms up”. At the same time he is on the record in interviews with Bob Woodward for Woodward's book, Rage, stating that he knew clearly how deadly and widespread Covid would be in the United States. Then, just for good measure, the president weaponized the wearing of face masks. That move was not only dumb it has resulted in more cases of Covid, more hospitalizations, and more deaths. Trump's handling of Covid makes George W. Bush's bungled response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 look like a master stroke of competence and compassion. Not to worry, Trump has tried to off load the blame for the Covid mess onto incompetence at the CDC, the FDA, and Dr. Fauci. The last time I looked all of them worked for him.
Lets go to the numbers. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won the popular vote handily, 66,000,000 to Trump's 63,000,000. This year Joe Biden will do even better than did Clinton in besting Donald Trump. But, of course, the popular vote is not determinative. What counts is the electoral vote. It takes at least 270 Electoral votes to win. I predict that Trump will win at least 20 states with 126 Electoral votes. Biden will win at least 17 states and the District of Columbia with 214 Electoral votes. The tale will be told in the remaining 13 Swing States with their 198 Electoral votes. Here's how I believe they will go:
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)- In 2016 Clinton edged Trump by only 3000 votes out of a total of 700,000 votes, less than half a per cent in the Granite State. It won't be nearly that close this year. BIDEN CARRIES NEW HAMPSHIRE.
NORTH CAROLINA (15)- Four years ago Trump carried North Carolina by 4%. Carrying it again is vital for him to have a viable pathway to reelection. The vote will be close, but Trump falls short. It's a possible trifecta for the Democrats in the Tar Heel State this year. Popular Governor, Roy Cooper wins in a breeze, and the bitter Senate contest between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham is the most expensive Senate race in the nation's history and will likely be determinative in deciding which party controls the Senate next year. BIDEN CARRIES NORTH CAROLINA.
FLORIDA (29)- Only California and Texas have more electoral votes than Florida. Moreover, dating back to Bill Clinton's first win in 1992, the candidate who carries Florida wins the White House. Florida is almost always close. Four years ago, Trump won by just over 1%. Think of Florida as two states politically. The southern half is Democratic. The northern half is Republican. Dividing the two is the I-4 Corridor that runs from Tampa on the Gulf coast, through Orlando in the center of the state, and on to Daytona Beach on the Atlantic coast.
How the vote breaks in along the I-4 Corridor will determine who carries Florida. And the lynch pin of the Corridor is Orange County, Orlando. Turnout in Orange County and its neighboring counties on its north and south, Seminole and Osceola, will tell the tale in the Sunshine State. Orange County is the state's fifth most populous county. Its population is just under 1.5 million. Four years ago Hillary Clinton carried Orange County by about 125,000 votes. Since then there has been a substantial increase in Democratic registration. This part of Florida has been experiencing explosive growth and much of that growth consists of Latinos, including large numbers of persons of Puerto Rican descent. If the Democrats can get these folks registered and to the polls Trump's margin of victory statewide will disappear.
And there is another county in the Sunshine State that bears close attention, Sumter County. It's home to the posh retirement community, The Villages. Its median age is 66. It has more than 125,000 residents most of whom are white, and it's a bastion of Republican strength. In 2016 Trump won Sumter County with 68% of the vote and carried the state narrowly. Anything below 66% would spell big trouble for Trump statewide this year.
More and more polling data show that seniors are increasingly unhappy with the president at the intersection of his actions (and inactions) on the Covid pandemic and health care issues more broadly. Senior are a large and powerful cohort of voters who are a necessary lynchpin in any election that Republicans win. The vote out of Sumter County will tell us a great deal not only about whether Trump wins Florida but also how he will fare in other states with significant number of seniors. BIDEN CARRIES FLORIDA.
GEORGIA (16)- That Georgia is now a Swing State is noteworthy in and of itself. Heretofore it has been reliably Republican. But the changing demographics of Georgia increased the population of the suburbs surrounding Atlanta, and we know that Trump, as a consequence of unforced errors, has lost significant suburban support. In addition Georgia Democrats, especially African-American Democrats, have been outraged and energized by the Black Lives Matter movement and the death of an American icon earlier this year, Georgia Congressman John Lewis. The polls show Trump with a slight lead in the Peach State. I believe they do not (yet) reflect the electoral wave that will finish Trump. BIDEN CARRIES GEORGIA.
OHIO (18)- No Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying the Buckeye State —none. Trump carried it handily four years ago by 8%. Polling shows it to be much closer this year, although Trump maintains a narrow lead. Like Georgia, I don't believe Trump's lead holds up. There's going to be too much leakage in the Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus suburbs. BIDEN CARRIES OHIO.
PENNSYLVANIA (20)- It was the Keystone State that put Trump over the top and in the White House in 2016. It was a squeaker. He carried the state by only 46,000 votes out of a total of just under 6 million. The formula is basically the same in each presidential election. The Democrats must win overwhelmingly in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, carry the surrounding suburbs easily, and, and hope that the GOP can't overcome their lead in the rest of the state. That's the algorithm that failed them four years ago.
The county to watch is Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania. Its population is just over 300,000 and it’s made up of white working class families most of whom are not college educated. Trump carried Luzerne by 26,000 votes in 2016. That's not in the cards this year. His margins in most of the state's Trump counties are going to diminish, and the Democrats are going to carry Philadelphia and it suburbs by more than they did four years ago. BIDEN CARRIES PENNSYLVANIA.
MICHIGAN (16)- Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by the narrowest of margins, 11,000 votes out of almost 4.5 million. He'll not do it again for a host of reasons including his running war with the Democratic Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, over how best to combat the Covid crisis. The Great Lake State returns to the Blue Fortress. BIDEN CARRIES MICHIGAN.
WISCONSIN (10)- The Badger state was the third Rust Belt state that Trump won in 2016. It was that election's tipping point state. It was the state that Hillary stupidly chose to never campaign in. And the Black vote in Milwaukee was way down. That will not happen this year. In addition to a hefty Black vote in Milwaukee thanks to the Black Lives Matter Movement and the violence in Kenosha, keep an eye on Ozaukee County just north of Milwaukee. This overwhelmingly white and wealthy county is the beating heart of Republican territory. No Democrat running for President has won more than 40% of the vote in Ozaukee in forever. Biden might just pull it off. BIDEN CARRIES WISCONSIN.
IOWA (6)- Trump won Iowa in 2016 handily, by 9 points. It's much closer this year. Recent polling shows the race to be a dead heat with perhaps a slight advantage to Trump. If I'm right that there is a mounting tidal wave pushing Biden, there's no reason to believe it will not engulf the Hawkeye State. BIDEN CARRIES IOWA.
TEXAS (38)- Four years ago Trump defeated Clinton in Texas handily by 9 points. The last time a Democrat seeking the presidency carried Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, 44 years ago. But times have been a changing. The Hispanic portion of the Texas population has been steadily increasing for decades. About 40% of the state's population is Hispanic. And Trump has alienated Hispanics in a myriad of ways including The Wall, DACA, and his ineffectual response to the Corona virus debacle.
Texas has been particularly hard hit by the Covid pandemic, and a disproportionate share of the hospitalizations and deaths have occurred in minority communities in the Lone Star State.
In 2018 Incumbent Republican Senator, Ted Cruz, was reelected by only 2+% over Democrat Beto O'Rourke. It was the closest Senate race in Texas since 1978. Now it appears that Trump is no longer assured of victory in Texas. TRUMP CARRIES TEXAS.
COLORADO (9)- Hillary Clinton won Colorado four years ago, and Joe Biden has a lead that is expanding in the Centennial state. The combination of the expanding Latino population and the battering Trump is taking in the Denver suburbs make the state's electoral votes a bridge too far for Trump. BIDEN CARRIES COLORADO.
NEVADA (6)- Hillary Clinton won the Silver State four years ago and the same formula will work again this year for Joe Biden. Trump will carry every county in the state except Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno). But Vegas and Reno are more than enough for the Democrats to prevail. Instrumental in the outcome are the highly organized and largely Latino culinary workers on the Vegas Strip who work in its many hotels and casinos. That union was and still is closely allied with former Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid's political machine. BIDEN CARRIES NEVADA.
ARIZONA (11)- The Grand Canyon State used to be a reliably Republican state. No more. For example, Mitt Romney carried it in 2012 by 10.7% But Trump carried it in 2016 by only 2.8%. Since then things have gotten worse for Trump.
The state's Latino population has continued to grow, and Trump has gone out of his way numerous times to denigrate personally the now deceased former Arizona Senator, John McCain, the party's 2008 standard bearer. Recall the worst of it from Trump concerning Senator McCain. In July of 2015, while speaking in Ames, Iowa, Candidate Trump said, “He's not a war hero. He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured.”
McCain was shot down over North Vietnam, imprisoned in the infamous “Hanoi Hilton” for 5 and one-half years, tortured, and refused to come home without the other imprisoned American servicemen when the North Vietnamese learned his McCain's father was an admiral.
John McCain's lifetime of service to this nation is rightfully respected in Arizona. Trump's about to learn that Vengeance is a dish best served cold. BIDEN CARRIES ARIZONA.
When all is said and done Trump will have carried 21 states and 163 electoral votes. Biden will have carried 29 states and the District of Columbia with 375 electoral votes. His victory will be clear, convincing, and overwhelming. In these totals Biden will also have won a single electoral vote in Nebraska by having carried its 2nd Congressional District, Omaha. Nebraska (and Maine) award electoral votes on the basis of congressional district.
If I'm right, Biden will have won all of the Swing States except Texas. For Trump a humiliating defeat of this magnitude will have been the inevitable consequence of his many unforced errors, his incompetence, and his unnecessary and counterproductive viciousness. Brilliant, no?
THE PRESIDENTIAL BELLWETHER
Now let's presume you don't have the time or the interest in staying up most of the night on November 3rd to follow all of the returns. There's a work around available. Alternatively you can follow the vote in Vigo County Indiana. And the Hoosier State is one of the states that reports its returns early in the evening.
Vigo County, located in southwestern Indiana on the Illinois border, has a remarkable record of voting for the person who goes on to become president. It has done so correctly in every election since 1956, and it has been wrong only twice since 1888. No one really understands why.
In important respects Vigo's population, roughly 100,000, is not a mirror image of the United States. Its population is far less diverse than the rest of America. It is less well educated and poorer than is the rest of America. It is however made up of plenty of Republicans and a mix of Democrats who are either older, union workers or students who attend one of the four colleges in the county. How many of them are currently attending classes in Terre Haute and voting in Vigo County though is unknown to me given the Covid pandemic. If they are elsewhere, that alters Vigo County's demographics and imperils the county's status as a bellwether.
Trump likely will carry Indiana. But if Biden wins Vigo County or only loses it by only a point or two, you can go to bed with the confidence that he's on his way to victory.
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Two years ago I employed a novel, yet risky, strategy in attempting to predict the outcome of the House election. I focused on only two districts, one in Michigan and one in Virginia, predicted their outcomes, and then extrapolated from those two in an effort to predict the changes for the House as a whole. With skill, and a lot of luck, it worked.
Although this may be pressing my luck, I'm going to use the same methodology again. I'm only going to predict the outcomes in two House districts, the 1st district in Ohio and the 5th district in Indiana. Based on that I'll go on and deal with the result for the House writ large.
It's important to begin with remembering what happened in the House election two years ago. Not only did the Democrats recapture the House. They did so dramatically. They gained 41 seats, which was the largest such gain since 1974. In the 1974 election the Democrats gained 49 seats. It was the election that followed a few months earlier the resignation of President Nixon and the culmination of his Watergate conspiracy.
Last year's House election was also noteworthy in that the Democrats won the largest share of the popular vote in the history of either party recapturing the House majority, and turnout for that election was the highest it had been in a century. The Democrat's stunning success in 2018 was overwhelmingly Trump related. Three quarters of the seats the Democrats wrested from the Republicans were suburban where traditional Republicans, especially women, either did not vote or voted Democratic because of their growing antipathy to president Trump.
In addition Republicans turned their back on their party because of the debacle it had made of the health care issue. Remember that the House Republican majority had voted more than 50 times to repeal Obamacare. Their mantra was Repeal and Replace. But after Trump won in 2016, and GOP had control of the White House and the Congress they failed in their attempt to bring forward an alternative health bill that had any chance of being enacted. In fact the GOP's alternative proposals would have stripped health care coverage from more than 20 million Americans. That effort blew up in their face on election day in 2018.
Their effort was grossly inadequate, certain to fail, and it cost them control of the House. And the blame for this unforced error is shared by the president who never came forward with his own health plan alternative and also supported the still born proposals the GOP attempted, but failed, to push through Congress. Trump and his Hill counterparts, especially the House Freedom Caucus, managed to become a circular firing squad. It was stupid, stupid, stupid.
It's also important to recall that unfortunately most House seats are gerrymandered in a way so that only one party has any real chance of winning a gerrymandered district. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have been at the gerrymandering game for a very long time. Neither party shows any indication of curtailing or stopping this anti-democratic process.
What all this meant is that in 2018 the Democrats won most of the “winnable” seats. Thus there's not much upside left for them in this election.
The current lineup in the House is 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 Libertarian, and 5 vacancies. In order to recapture the chamber the GOP would need to gain a net of 21 seats on November 3rd.
OHIO—1st DISTRICT
In the 1st Congressional district of Ohio Republican Congressman, Steve Chabot is opposed by Democrat, Kate Schroder. Chabot has represented the district for all but two of the last 24 years. He is a staunch supporter of President Trump. Schroder is a newcomer, a mother, a cancer survivor, and has lived in Zambia for two years focusing on improving the health of children.
The district includes most of Hamilton County, Cincinnati, and suburban Warren County to its northeast. In 2016 Trump carried the district 51%-45%. In 2018 the long serving Chabot was reelected by a margin of 4.4%.
What we have here is a classic confrontation between an established Republican who has the president's back and his support versus a female newcomer with a background and interest in healthcare issues. And this is playing out in yet another suburban district that has been gerrymandered to favor the GOP, while at the same time being an example of a district where the president's support has been eroding over the past several years
Schroder defeats Chabot.
INDIANA-5th DISTRICT
The 5th Congressional district of Indiana includes the northern portion of Indianapolis, its northern and eastern suburbs, and several additional counties to the north, including all or portions of the cities of Carmel, Marion, Noblesville, and Kokomo. It is the wealthiest congressional district in the Hoosier state.
In 2016 Trump carried the district by 12%. In 2012 Republican Susan Brooks won the seat and has been reelected easily since then. She has also served as a Deputy Mayor of Indianapolis and as a federal prosecutor under President George W. Bush. However in June of 2019 Brooks announced she would not seek reelection this year.
Thus the battle for Indiana's 5th pits Republican Victoria Spartz against Democrat Christina Hale in this historically suburban Republican district. Spartz is a Trump supporting firebrand. Spartz, an Indiana state senator, has run ads wearing camouflage, carrying a rifle, and saying she “will stand with Trump”.
Hale who has been an Indiana state representative has focused on combating sexual violence against women and children, and has given divisive issues a wide berth. She has previously won the endorsements of both the AFL/CIO and the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. That's something that rarely occurs
Spartz versus Hale will give the voters of the 5th district of Indiana a starkly clear choice between a conservative Republican who is a Trump acolyte and a relatively moderate Democrat. In addition the 5th district has a distinct Republican tilt to it, and Indiana is a state that President Trump will win with ease.
All that said, Hale defeats Spartz.
Remembering that most of the low hanging House fruit was picked by the Democrats in the House election two years ago, I predict that the Democrats will further enlarge their majority, though modestly. The Democrats will gain 8 seats in the House, and the final numbers will be 244 Democrats and 191 Republicans.
THE SENATE
The Senate consists of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Of the Democrats two are technically Independents, King of Maine and Sanders of Vermont. But both caucus with the Democrats and for all practical purposes are Democrats. 35 Senate seats will be up for election this year. 23 of the 35 seats being contested this year are held by Republicans. 12 of the 35 seats being contested this year are held by Democrats.
I believe that 24 of the seats being contested this year are safe for the incumbent's party. The remaining 11 seats are in play and are discussed below.
MAINE
Republican Senator Susan Collins seeks reelection and her 5th term in the Senate. She is opposed by Maine House Speaker, Sara Gideon. Collins has never faced a difficult reelection, until now. Collins has prided herself on being a centrist. As such she is one of the few Republicans in the Senate who has not always been in lockstep with Trump. In past elections the key to Collins easy reelection is because she commands the Pine Tree State's Republican vote and also wins the votes of substantial numbers of Democrats, especially women.
However, that applecart has been overturned. Trump and many of his staunchest followers in Maine are at best lukewarm over Collins because she has not always toed the Trump line. (How dumb is that with GOP control of the Senate at grave risk?) And at the same time Collins has seen a marked decline in the traditional support she has previously received from Democrats because she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Collins is caught in an impossible double bind.
GIDEON DEFEATS COLLINS. -1R
NORTH CAROLINA
Freshman Senator, Republican Thom Tillis, seeks reelection. He is opposed by former state senator, Democrat Cal Cunningham. This has become the most expensive Senate race in the nation's history. In large measure because both parties believe there is an excellent chance that the outcome of the Senate race here will determine which party controls the Senate next year. Like Collins in Maine, Tillis has seen some erosion in his support because he has not ALWAYS supported Trump, although in the main he has been a loyal and erstwhile Trump supporter. Unfortunately for Tillis, many of the Trump faithful demand total allegiance.
In addition Cunningham has hammered Tillis on the cash that he has taken from drug manufacturers and health insurance companies, while also voting to oppose the expansion of Medicaid in the face of the Covid pandemic. It has recently come to light that Cunningham has cheated on his wife. Cunningham has not denied the charge. However, it is unlikely that marital infidelity will cause Cunningham supporters to desert him.
CUNNINGHAM DEFEATS TILLIS. -1R
SOUTH CAROLINA
Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, seeks a 4th term. He is opposed by the former Chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, Jaime Harrison who is African American. South Carolina is a conservative state and likely will easily give the state's electoral votes to Trump on November 3rd. However, polling shows the Senate race to be extremely tight. Harrison is the hand picked candidate of the National Democratic establishment, and he has access to unlimited cash.
In addition some Trump followers are unhappy with Graham given the fact that he trashed Trump during the 2016 Republican primaries. Graham is the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and has led the successful fight that has culminated with Barrett's ascendancy to the Supreme Court. Were Graham to lose, it would signal a bloodbath for the GOP in Senate races.
GRAHAM DEFEATS HARRISON
GEORGIA
Both Senate seats in Georgia are up this November. In addition Georgia law provides that a run off election is mandatory in the event the winning candidate(s) November 3rd do not have at least 50% of the vote. In that case a run off election between the top two candidates in either or both Senate races will occur in early January 2021. Thus it is possible that control of the Senate will be unknown until next January.
Republican Senator, David Perdue seeks reelection. He is opposed by Democrat Jon Osoff who won national attention in a losing bid in 2017 for what was the most expensive House race in the nation's history. Until recently Georgia has been a reliably Red state. No more. Now it's a Swing state.
Osoff has plenty of cash on hand for his bid to unseat Perdue, and thanks to his unsuccessful effort to win a House seat in 2017 he has name recognition throughout the Peach State. Perdue has been hobbled by allegations of using insider information about the coming Covid pandemic earlier this year to reap windfall financial benefits from stock trading.
This race will be a dead heat right down to the wire.
PERDUE DEFEATS OSOFF
Republican Senator Johnny Isakson resigned for health reasons late last year. The Republican Governor of Georgia appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace him last January. This election on November 3rd is in fact a “Jungle primary” in which all candidates, regardless of party run against one another. If one of them, gets more than 50% of the vote that candidate wins. Otherwise the top two finishers, regardless of party, move on to the January 5th 2021 runoff.
There are multiple candidates from both parties on the ballot this November. For the Republicans this includes Senator Loeffler and House member, Doug Collins. They are bitter rivals. On the Democratic side the principal candidate is Raphael Warnock, currently the Senior Pastor at the Ebeneezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, formerly the church of the Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr.
Expect a January run off election between Warnock and probably Loeffler.
WARNOCK DEFEATS LOEFFLER -1R
ALABAMA
Democratic Senator Doug Jones seeks reelection. He is opposed by Republican Tommy Tuberville, the former head coach of the University of Auburn football team.
Jones was initially elected in a special election in 2017 caused by the resignation of Republican Senator Jeff Sessions who had been nominated by Trump to be Attorney General. Jones' opponent in the 2017 election was Republican Roy Moore, a former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, where he had been twice removed from that office by the Alabama Court of the Judiciary for judicial misconduct. In addition during the campaign against Jones in 2017 Moore faced allegations of sexual misconduct against underage girls in previous years.
For many Alabamians their three highest priorities are God, college football, and conservatism.
TUBERVILLE DEFEATS JONES +1R
IOWA
Freshman Republican Senator, Joni Ernst, seeks a second term. She is opposed by Democrat Theresa Greenfield. In 2016 Trump carried Iowa easily, by almost 10 points. Now both the presidential contest and the Senate contest are toss-ups. If Biden carries Iowa, Ernst will not survive the undertow.
GREENFIELD DEFEATS ERNST. -1R
KANSAS
Four term Republican Senator, Pat Roberts is retiring in normally reliably Republican Kansas. The election on November 3rd will pit Republican Congressman, Roger Marshall against Kansas State Senator Barbara Bollier, who switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party in 2018. In normal years this would not be a race that is in play. This is not a normal year, and Bollier is in striking distance of Marshall in the heart of Trump country.
MARSHALL DEFEATS BOLLIER
COLORADO
First term Republican Senator Cory Gardner seeks reelection. He is opposed by Democratic former Governor John Hickenlooper. Colorado is on the cusp of losing its status as a Swing State. Gardner, like other endangered Republicans seeking reelection this year is hopelessly trapped between Trump and his adoring supporters who demand nothing less than total allegiance and an electorate in Colorado that is inexorably moving Left.
Gardner, like other Senate Republicans who will be defeated in this cycle, find themselves mousetrapped between uncompromising Trumpites on the far right and an electorate unwilling to embrace the rigidity of such a radical minority. How dumb is that?
HICKENLOOPER DEFEATS GARDNER -1R
MONTANA
First term Republican Senator, Steve Daines seeks reelection. He is opposed by Montana's Governor, Democrat Steve Bullock. At the presidential level Montana is typically reliably Republican. Bullock is a popular sitting Governor and was elected in 2016 by 4 points while Trump was carrying the state by 20 points. Montana's other Senator, Jon Testor, is also a Democrat and was reelected two years ago.
Both candidates are popular and well known to Montana voters. Trump will carry the state, but not by 20 points. It's going to be close between Daines and Bullock.
DAINES DEFEATS BULLOCK
ARIZONA
Arizona Republican Senator John McCain was last elected in 2016. He passed away in 2018 and Martha McSally was appointed to the seat until the next election, which is November 3rd. The winner then will serve the remainder of McCain's term until 2022. McSally is opposed by Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut and the husband of former congresswoman Gabby Giffords who was severely wounded after having been shot several years ago.
The Grand Canyon State is no longer a Red state. Thanks to Trump, Trump's personal assault on former Senator McCain, and Trump's hostility to Latinos, Arizona is now in play. Kelly is well known and well liked in Arizona. In addition he has more than enough money to fuel his campaign.
KELLY DEFEATS MCSALLY -1R
If the above predictions are correct, the Republicans will lose a net of 5 seats and will lose control of the Senate. The lineup when the Congress reconvenes next January will be 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans.
CONCLUSION
Assuming that, having lost the control of the House of Representatives two years ago, the Republicans now forfeit the White House and the Senate, the question that obtains is, why? It's not as if the handwriting was not boldly and plainly on the wall. The crushing repudiation of Trumpism was made manifest two years ago when the voters ran the GOP out of the House of Representatives on a rail. At that point there was still time, plenty of time for Trump and the Republicans to face reality, to make significant policy and political adjustments to avert the 2020 election from being an even larger debacle than was the drubbing they were handed in 2018. They chose not to make any course corrections. How dumb is that?
If it comes to pass next Tuesday that the voters send Trump and his army of belligerent, yet unthinking, lemmings into the sea, it's worth stepping back and understanding what happened and why.
We all knew in 2016 that Trump had no chance to win. And most of us were more than OK with that “inevitable” outcome. After all Hillary Clinton received 3,000,000 more votes than The Donald. Clinton “knew” she would win. Trump expected to lose. And the nation's opinion leaders: the electronic and writing press, academics, corporate executives, the entertainment industry, and all of the “holier than thou” apostles of the Left all assumed victory was inevitable.
All of them were wrong. And they were wrong because Trump successfully brought just enough of the Forgotten Americans to the polls in just the right states. They believed that maybe, just maybe, Trump would restore their rightful place in the nation's expanding bounty.
Had Trump fashioned an agenda to do just that and do it in a way that did not go to war with those already at the table he had the opportunity to be not just a successful president, but a transformational president.
But Trump not only failed to do that. He never tried. Instead of surrounding himself with advisers who knew their portfolios better than he and who were encouraged to challenge him, Trump chose to fire and disparage pubically anyone who dared to cross his bow. The hard and depressing truth is that Trump is and remains an infantile bully. He actually believes that our job as citizens is to glorify him. The notion that it has been his job to serve us, all of us, has never entered his mind. If it had, we'd see evidence of it in his policies, his rhetoric, and his persona. We don't because he simply doesn’t have the right stuff. Even more depressing is the fact that his supporters comprehend none of this. Trump is a loser, and his adoring supporters are suckers. How's that for smarts!
Trump took over the Republican Party and destroyed it. He came to power with the Republican Party controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. He will depart with the Republicans controlling nothing. That's the Trump legacy. From Abraham Lincoln to Donald Trump, captures the catastrophe in six words.
We should be at the point now where Porky Pig says, “Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th...That's All Folks”. But we're not. Unfortunately there's more.
THE COMING COURT BATTLE
If Joe Biden wins the election on November 3rd, do not expect Trump to go quietly into the night. You don't have to take my word for it. For weeks now Trump has been signaling the coming struggle in Court. He has repeatedly refused to say that he would relinquish power willingly having been defeated at the polls. He has repeatedly stated that the Democrats will illegally claim victory based on widespread fraud in the millions of mail in or drop off ballots. There is every good reason to believe Trump will initiate legal challenges to what he will allege are fraudulent, Democrat votes in numerous states.
Presumably he expects that when these cases work their way, as they will, to the United States Supreme Court that the Supreme Court will rule in his favor. After all, it will then have six conservative justices, three of whom will have been nominated by him.
However surreal and disruptive it turns out to be, Trump will in no way be deterred from plunging the nation into a constitutional crisis as he tries to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
But his extra-constitutional ploy will not work. The Supreme Court will rule against him, and the vote will not be close. What Trump has not tumbled to is that conservative judges not only are averse to rewriting laws from the bench, they are also averse to reversing the clear will of the electorate as they exercise their most important constitutionally guaranteed right—the right to vote.
What Trump will not do when he is resoundingly defeated by Biden is to paraphrase the words of John McCain when he was resoundingly defeated by Barack Obama in 2008.
McCain said, “Sen. Obama has achieved a great thing for himself and for his country. I applaud him for it...And my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude...to the American people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that Sen Obama and my old friend Sen. Joe Biden, should have the honor of leading us for the next four years.”
So here's the Trump legacy. In 2018 Trump and the House Freedom Caucus surrendered the House of Representatives. In 2020 Trump and his supporters lost the Senate and the White House. Next January the Democrats, lusting for vengeance and lurching to the Left, will rule the roost. How's that for smarts!
As I indicated at the open, this election will amount to a collision between The Apprentice and Forrest Gump. Forrest said, “My mama says stupid is as stupid does”. And that's just what The Apprentice has been doing for the last four years.
LeRoy Goldman
October 29, 2020
