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Sunday, November 10, 2013

President Obama, the reluctant warrior



By LEROY GOLDMAN
The Shadow Knows
Published: Sunday, November 10, 2013 at 4:30 a.m.


Today's column will be my last. The Shadow and I want to thank all of you who have been kind enough to send along words of encouragement and constructive criticism over the past two years.


President Obama, the reluctant warrior

The effort to enact health care reform in the United States is a century old. It began with the Progressive Party platform of Theodore Roosevelt's unsuccessful quest for the presidency in 1912.
President Franklin Roosevelt considered adding comprehensive health insurance to his proposal for Social Security in 1935 but dropped it for fear that the adamant opposition of the American Medical Association might doom Social Security.
President Harry Truman tried and failed to achieve passage of the Murray-Wagner-Dingell health insurance bill after World War II.
President Lyndon Johnson made health insurance a top priority, and with the advantage of huge Democratic majorities in Congress he successfully passed Medicare and Medicaid.
In the early 1970s, Sen. Edward Kennedy attempted to build a bipartisan bridge between his national health insurance proposal and the one submitted by President Richard Nixon. But Kennedy's allies in organized labor would not countenance any bargain with Nixon, and Nixon would not agree to financing such a measure through payroll taxes. Watergate sealed the failure.
Although President Jimmy Carter proposed his own health insurance scheme, it was not embraced by the leading Democratic proponents of comprehensive reform in Congress. It went nowhere.
President Bill Clinton made health insurance reform a top priority, and he appointed first lady Hillary Clinton to lead the effort. The complexity of the bill she presented to a Congress controlled by Democrats doomed it.
Comes now Barack Obama, the man who made the enactment of health care reform the centerpiece of his 2008 campaign and his presidency.
One would think that after such a protracted and bitter struggle over the past century, the enactment of health care reform in 2010 would be cause for a genuine national sigh of relief and celebration. But whether you love Obamacare or hate it, you can't deny the fact that its passage and implementation have left the nation deeply and bitterly divided.
In 2007, Obama was on the verge of not accepting an invitation to speak at a health conference sponsored by Families USA, a progressive group. But, as Carrie Brown and Glenn Thrush reported on Politico.com about six weeks ago, “two aides, Robert Gibbs and Jon Favreau, hit on an idea that would make him appear more prepared and committed than he actually was at the moment. Why not just announce his intention to pass universal health care by the end of his first term?”
One of them said, “We needed something to say. I can't tell you how little thought was given to that thought other than it sounded good.”
Thus, Obama came to embrace the necessity for health care reform mainly by accident. It was a way to enable him to begin to compete with his rival for the nomination, Hillary Clinton, on an issue where she had an established, though tarnished, track record.
Furthermore, at that time there appeared to be no consequential downside to the fact that Obama was a novice on heath care. Not only did Hillary Clinton expect to win the nomination, so too did many in the Obama campaign. But, of course, it didn't work out that way!
Once inaugurated, President Obama chose to stand and deliver on health care over the objections of senior advisers. But Obama turned the job of writing the bill over to the Democrats on the Hill — an unforced error. He did not insist that the bill contain provisions, such as tort reform, that would have brought at least a modicum of Republicans on board, making the effort bipartisan — an unforced error.
He allowed the bill to become so grotesquely complex that he has never been able to explain it to the American people — an unforced error. He steadfastly continues to characterize the law as health care reform when in fact many of its central components, including the individual mandate and the exchanges, are the handiwork of the health insurance industry — an unforced error.
He presumed that the federal government was capable of implementing a law that was designed to make profound changes in the operation of a $2.5 trillion industry that makes up what soon will be 20 percent of the nation's gross domestic product — an unforced error. And, after having more than three years to design the Obamacare website, HHS Secretary Sebelius and her bureaucrats gave birth to what she now describes as a debacle — an unforced error.
Those unforced errors are more than enough to ruin a good idea. But there is more, and the more is more troubling.
When presidents lie and the American people tumble to it, look out! At least 24 times, President Obama told the nation, “If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away. No matter what.”
Tell that to the hundreds of thousands of Americans who are now receiving cancellation letters. Their individual policies are being canceled so that the Obama administration can force younger, healthier Americans into Obamacare to prevent the program from imploding due to the influx of older, sicker persons.
Assuming that the president didn't know and intend that is preposterous.
The president and his sycophants are now trapped by their hubris, mendacity and incompetence. Obama has risked his legacy and more importantly the nation's well-being on a deeply flawed idea made immeasurably worse by its bungled implementation. It's what happens when you send a neophyte to do a man's job.



Sunday, November 3, 2013

Tuesday should be telling for GOP



Tuesday should be telling for GOP


It's only a 275 mile drive from Richmond to Trenton. But given the dynamics of the two gubernatorial elections that will reach their climax this Tuesday, these two state capitals might just as well be on opposite sides of our Milky Way Galaxy.

There appears to be little doubt that Republican, Ken Cuccinelli, will be defeated in Virginia, while Republican Governor, Chris Christie will be reelected in New Jersey. Cuccinelli is likely to lose by as much as 10%, and Christie may win by more than 25%. The oddity, of course, is that Virginia has been a solidly Republican state until very recently. On the other hand New Jersey is a solidly Blue, reliably Democratic state.

Understanding the anomalous nature of a Republican loss in Virginia, coupled with a Republican victory in New Jersey, can teach us a lot about whether the GOP can win back the Senate in 2014 and the White House in 2016, or whether it might lose the House in 2014 and be pulverized by Hillary Clinton 2016.

THE OLD DOMINION

The Governor's race in Virginia is a three-way battle among the Commonwealth's Attorney General, Republican Ken Cuccinelli, businessman and former Democratic National Committee Chairman, Terry McAuliffe, and lawyer and businessman, Libertarian Robert Sarvis.

From 1952 until 2004 Virginia's Presidential electoral votes have been cast for Republicans with the exception of 1964. But President Obama carried the Old Dominion in both 2008 and 2012. And now Virginia is no longer Red. It's Purple.

Significant demographic changes in Virginia account for its transformation. Chief among those changes is the explosive population growth in Northern Virginia, the Washington suburbs. Much of that growth is accounted for by an influx of Hispanics. A disproportionately large number of these individuals vote Democratic. And many of them are Federal employees.

Cuccinelli has not been able to navigate successfully between the ideologically driven Tea Party wing and the more pragmatic and moderate Republicans in Northern Virgina and in the Richmond suburbs of Henrico and Chersterfield counties. The presence of third party candidate, Libertarian Robert Sarvis, on the ballot continues to bleed Tea Party supporters from Cuccinelli. Lastly, the radioactive fallout from the recent Government shutdown and debt ceiling crises have hurt the Cuccinelli campaign badly, probably mortally, in the vote-rich suburbs outside the Washington Beltway.

McAuliffe is extremely wealthy and an inveterate optimist. He has a $10 million dollar advantage over Cuccinelli in campaign funds, and more importantly he has the Clintons. Bill and Hillary Clinton have been McAuliffe's close personal friends for decades. The families vacation together. McAuliffe has raised over $400 million for the Clinton's presidential campaigns. He was the Chairman of Hillary's unsuccessful 2008 bid for the White House. In 1999 when the Clinton's needed financial assistance to purchase their lavish home in Chappaqua, NY, McAuliffe personally secured their mortgage with $1.5 million in cash. Now the Clintons are campaigning for McAuliffe in Virginia. And it's more than friendship. The Clinton's want to be able to leverage a state Democratic Machine in Richmond in 2016.

THE GARDEN STATE

In New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie seeks a second term. He is opposed by Democratic State Senator Barbara Buono. Virtually all polling organizations show Christie with a huge edge, approaching 2:1. Barbara Buono will be buried under an avalanche of Christie votes Tuesday night. What remains unknown is how big the margin will be and, more importantly, how well Christie does with Hispanics, African-Americans, and Independents.

Christie is a conservative Republican who has demonstrated that he can not only win in a Blue state like New Jersey, but that he can govern successfully even though the Democrats control both chambers of the State legislature. How many news reports have you heard that describe impasse in Trenton like the impasse in Washington? If Christie couldn't effectively reach across the aisle and work with Democrats to solve problems, he would not be on his way to overwhelming reelection.

About 18% of New Jersey's population is Hispanic. Only seven states have a larger Hispanic population. And in mid October Governor Christie spoke to supporters at the Sabor Latino restaurant in Dover, New Jersey. What he said is what distinguishes him from folks like Ken Cuccinelli and those at right fanatical fringe of the Republican party who suffer from a doctrinally-induced coma.

Christie said, “The eyes of America will be on New Jersey on November 5th. What they're going to see is a coalition supporting the governor like no other Republican has anywhere in the country: Hispanic voters, African-American voters, members of the building trade unions, people who live in the suburbs, people who live in cities, people who live on our farms”.

New Jersey law precludes a governor from serving more than two consecutive terms. So what's coming is a titanic struggle for the soul and the future of the Republican Party that will play out over the battle for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2016.

One of Trenton's famous landmarks is the TRENTON MAKES: THE WORLD TAKES Bridge over the Delaware River. Those words, illuminated in neon, can easily be seen by passengers taking the high speed trains from Washington and Philadelphia north to New York and Boston. In 2016 Chris Christie is hoping to redefine that 1935 motto into WHAT TRENTON MADE, AMERICA TAKES. His chief adversary is his own party!


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