2018 ELECTION PREDICTIONS
By:
LeRoy Goldman
November 5, 2018
The election is upon us and the campaign ends with both sides telling
us that it's the most important election in modern American history.
We've heard that refrain from presidents Trump and Obama, from
Vice-Presidents Pence and Biden, from Oprah Winfrey, and from
commentators on both Fox and MSNBC. When folks who hate one another,
don't trust one another, and refuse to work with one another agree on
something, don't believe it. This election is is nothing more than a
rerun of 2016 when, as you will recall, most Americans were
disenthralled with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. In 2018
it's more of the same with our having to choose between their
surrogates.
More on that sorry state of affairs below, but let’s get to what
most of you are focused on, who's gonna win. Attempting to predict
the outcome of a congressional election starts by knowing whether or
not there is also a presidential election. If not, as is the case
this year, the dynamics of the election are frequently quite
different than elections for Congress and the White House. The two
most striking differences are that voter turnout in an election for
Congress only tends to be far smaller then in presidential years, and
those who do turn out tend to be older and whiter than is the case in
presidential years. Thus, as a general rule, the Republicans have a
real advantage in elections like the one tomorrow. And there's
another factor that needs to be kept in mind. When a congressional
election follows the election of a new president, as is the case this
year, it is more likely than not that the new president's party will
lose seats in the congressional election. This year it's clear that
turnout is going to be very large. That's not good news for the GOP.
And there have been extreme examples of a president's party losing
seats following his victory two years earlier. In the 1994
congressional election, following the election of president Clinton
in 1992, the GOP gained 54 seats in the House and took control of
that chamber for the first time in 40 years. The Republicans also
gained 9 seats in the Senate and captured it too. In 2010, following
the election of president Obama, the pattern repeated itself. The
GOP gained 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats, controlled 29 Governor's
mansions, and gained 680 state legislative seats nationwide. It was
the largest gain in a midterm election since the Great Depression.
1994 and 2010 were Tidal Wave congressional elections, Red Tidal
Waves. For months now there has been talk and expectation of a Blue
Tidal Wave coming tomorrow. Don't bet on it. Tomorrow will be a
better day for the Democrats than the Republicans, but it will turn
out to be a win on points, not by a knockout. The Democrats will
recapture the House of Representatives, gain Governors and state
legislative seats, but fail to recapture the Senate. GOP losses will
be muted by the effect of gerrymandering in the House and the fact
that most of the Senate seats up this cycle are being defended by
incumbent Democrats, not vulnerable Republicans.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
In order to recapture the House the Democrats need to gain a net of
at least 23 seats. There is no doubt that the wind has been at the
Democrat's back ever since they woke up on the morning of November 9,
2016 and found to their disbelief that Donald Trump was
President-elect. The Never Trumpers have been on the warpath ever
since their worst nightmare came to pass. And president Trump has
deliberately and stupidly played right into their hands. Most
importantly, he has managed to enrage millions of Americans,
particularly educated, white women. Many of them live in suburban
congressional districts that have traditionally elected moderate
Republicans. That is about to change, and change with a vengeance,
as moderate Republican women either vote Democratic or stay home.
That is why so many of the Republicans who have retired from Congress
in the last two years have represented these suburban districts.
They have seen the handwriting on the wall, Trump's handwriting.
Let me boil the battle for the House down to just two districts,
Virginia's 10th and Michigan's 8th. That's
risky, but what happens in districts like these will, I believe, tell
the tale for the composition of the House when all is said and done.
VIRGINIA-10 The 10th is located in Northern Virginia and
stretches from Dulles Airport in Chantilly west to the city of
Winchester and the West Virginia state line. The district is largely
suburban and overwhelmingly white. The median income is over $120,000.
More than half of the adults in the district hold at least a college
degree. Since it was created in 1952, it has been represented by a
Republican for 60 of its 66 year history. Prior to the election of
the current incumbent, Barbara Comstock, it was represented by
Republican Frank Wolf from 1981-2014. Comstock served as an aide to
Wolf prior to winning the seat in 2014. She has served in the
Virginia House of Delegates and is a lawyer. In 2014 she won with
56% of the vote and was reelected in 2016 with 53% while Hillary
Clinton was carrying the district with 52% of the vote.
Comstock is opposed by Democrat Jennifer Wexton. She is a lawyer and
in 2014 was elected to the Virginia Senate. If Wexton wins, and she
will win, consider it the beginning of end for moderate Republicans
in suburban districts. Make no mistake about it, Comstock's loss
will not be principally attributable to Wexton. It will be
principally attributable to Trump's alienation of educated Republican
women. How dumb is that?
MICHIGAN-8 The 8th is located in Southern Michigan running
East from Lansing, the State Capital, into suburban Oakland County
just North of Detroit. The district is overwhelmingly white, 84%.
And it has been gerrymandered to make it a safe Republican district.
When Republican Mike Rogers retired in 2014 he was replaced by the
current Congressman, Republican Mike Bishop. Bishop previously
served as the Majority Leader in the Michigan State Senate.
Bishop is a graduate of University of Michigan and holds a law degree
from Michigan State University. He won the 8th district
in 2014 with 55% of the vote and was reelected in 2016 with 56% of
the vote. President Trump carried the district in 2016 by 7 points.
Bishop is opposed by Democrat Elissa Slotkin. She brings a
remarkable resume to her upstart campaign. She grew up on a family
farm in Holly, Michigan. Her family owned Hygrade Foods, the makers
of Ball Park Franks which were introduced at Tigers Stadium in the
1950s. After college she went to Kenya, Tanzania, and the Middle East
and learned Arabic. Slotkin ended up at the CIA and ultimately
served three tours of duty in Iraq as an intelligence liaison after
9/11.
Ultimately she ended up working not only at the CIA but also at the
State Department Defense Department, and the White House. When
President Obama took office in 2009 Slotkin was asked to stay on!
Interestingly enough it is not her national security background that
propelled her to challenge Congressman Bishop. Rather it was seeing
Bishop in the Rose Garden with President Trump in 2017 during the
celebration of the House passage of the health bill that would have
penalized persons with pre-existing conditions. Slotkin's mother had
died from ovarian cancer in 2011 and she did not qualify for health
insurance.
Under normal circumstances Bishop should win reelection without
breaking a sweat. These are not normal circumstances. Slotkin wins.
If either Barbara Comstock or Mike Bishop loses, I believe the GOP
House majority hangs by a thread. If they both lose, it's Katy bar
the door. And that's my prediction. I believe the Democrats will
gain 34 seats and recapture the House of Representatives. The final
tally will be 229 Democrats, 206 Republicans.
A result like this will also alter significantly the make-up of the
House Republican caucus. If the moderate Republicans are
disproportionately defeated tomorrow, the Republicans left standing
will be those who are the most conservative, like the members of the
Freedom Caucus. They will be forced to adjust to a new life, one in
which they will have to learn the meaning of the word, IRRELEVANT.
They and the President will have themselves to thank for their
demise.
And that reminds me that revenge is a dish best served cold!
SENATE
The Republicans currently control the Senate 51-49. Two
Independents, Bernie Sanders (VT), and Angus King (ME), are included
in the Democratic total because both senators caucus with the
Democrats and vote with them most all the time. This year
thirty-five Senate seats are up for election, 26 are currently held
by Democrats and 9 are held by Republicans. This is a highly
unfavorable map for the Democrats. Not only do they have to defend
many more seats than does the GOP, it is also the case that Democrats
are having to defend ten seats in states won by Donald Trump in 2016,
while the GOP only has to defend one seat in a state won by Hillary
Clinton in 2016, Nevada. That reality is the principal reason the
GOP will retain control of the Senate, and may well increase its
majority.
As is the case in virtually every senate election, many incumbents
seeking reelection do not face serious competition. This year is no
exception. Let's begin with the low-hanging fruit: Democratic
incumbents will retain their seats in 20 states; Maine, Connecticut,
Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware,
New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota,
Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico. California, Washington, and Hawaii.
Republicans will retain seats in 5 states; Mississippi, Mississippi,
Nebraska, Utah and Wyoming.
Counting the Senators not up for election this year plus the low
hanging fruit gives us 47 Republicans and 43 Democrats. Thus the
balance hangs in the remaining 10 states where the outcome is by no
means clear. Let's go through them one by one:
FLORIDA- Senator Bill Nelson (D) is opposed by Governor Rick Scott
(R). Nelson has never been a magnetic personality in Florida
politics. His service in the Senate has been competent and workman
like. Scott on the other hand has been a very popular Governor and
also has the advantage of having very deep pockets. All things being
equal Scott should win. But all things are not equal. And the
inequality has nothing directly to do with the Senate contest. It
does have to do with the contest for Governor between Republican
Congressman Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum the Mayor of
Tallahassee who is African-American. I know it's difficult to
imagine anyone more Trumpian than president Trump, but, if anyone
fits that description, it's Ron DeSantis. Gillum, the surprise
winner of the Democratic Primary is fiercely Liberal and is supported
by Bernie Sanders. Although the contest is a toss-up, I believe
Gillum will prevail and in doing so will benefit from a surge in
voter turnout by African-Americans. And they will vote for Nelson
too. Gillum drags Nelson over the finish line. 47 Republicans-44
Democrats.
WEST VIRGINIA-Senator Joe Manchin (D) is opposed by the Republican
West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Over the past
quarter century West Virginia has gone from Solid Democrat to Solid
Republican. President Trump carried it in 2016 by more than 40
points. But, if any Democrat can win in West Virginia, it's Joe
Manchin. Prior to coming to the Senate he was an enormously popular
Governor and his folksy, down home personality is a perfect fit for
the state. Manchin wins. 47 Republicans-45 Democrats.
TENNESSEE-Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is opposed by
former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen. Republican Senator Bob
Corker announced earlier this year he would not seek reelection. No
Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Tennessee since Al Gore
won in 1990. Bredesen was a popular Governor of Tennessee, and
Blackburn is both strident and lackluster. But the climb is too
steep fro Bredesen. Blackburn wins. 48 Republicans-45 Democrats
INDIANA-Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly is opposed by Republican
businessman and former state representative, Mike Braun. The Hoosier
state is the one Midwest state that is unlike the rust belt states
that surround it. With the exception of Lake County just east of
Chicago in its northwest corner Indiana was settled more form the
American South than from European immigrants. Thus it is more
conservative and more Republican. Joe Donnelly won easily six years
ago because his Republican opponent self destructed when he said
“rape is something God intended”. If Braun can squeak out enough
votes in the Republican suburbs of Indianapolis, he'll win. The fact
that President Obama was campaigning in Gary yesterday, which is all
African-American, tells us that it's gonna be close. 49
Republicans-45 Democrats.
MONTANA- Democratic Senator Jon Tester is opposed by Republican State
Auditor Matt Rosendale. President Trump carried Montana by 20 points
and will have made an unprecedented four trips to the state to
campaign for Rosendale. There is plenty of bad blood between Trump
and Tester, and Tester showed his independence by not voting to
confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court even though the vote was
extremely unpopular back home. Tester is a third generation
Montanan. Rosendale is from Maryland. Tester wins. 49
Republicans-46 Democrats.
NORTH DAKOTA-Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is opposed by
Republican Congressman Kevin Cramer. President Trump carried North
Dakota by 36 points two years ago. Unlike the situation in Montana,
Heitkamp's opponent is home grown and popular. When Heitkamp voted
against Brett Kavanaugh she sealed her fate. Her fall back position
is to hope for a cabinet appointment in a Democratic Administration
in 2021. Cramer wins. 50 Republicans- 46 Democrats.
MISSOURI- Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill is opposed by
Republican State Attorney General Josh Hawley. Perhaps the bell tolls
for Claire McCaskill this year. Initially elected to the Senate in
2006, she appeared to be doomed for reelection six years ago until
her opponent self destructed by stating, that a woman could not get
pregnant by “legitimate rape”. This time McCaskill faces a well
funded, articulate opponent in a state that president Trump carried
by 20 points. Hawley wins. 51 Republicans- 46 Democrats.
TEXAS- Republican Senator Ted Cruz is opposed by Democratic
Congressman Beto O'Rourke of El Paso. No Democrat has won statewide
office in Texas for a quarter century. But O'Rourke has turned what
most thought would be a walk in the park for Ted Cruz into a spirited
battle. That the President was forced to come to Texas and rename
Cruz from “Lying Ted” to “Beautiful Ted” tells you everything
you need to know. Cruz wins, but political change is on the wing in
the Lone Star State. 52 Republicans- 46 Democrats.
NEVADA- Republican Senator Dean Heller is opposed by Democratic
Congresswoman Jacky Rosen. This race likely will go down to the
wire. It's the only state in this cycle that has an incumbent
Republican running in a state carried by Hillary Clinton two years
ago. And it's a weird state politically. The Democrats are dominant
in Clark County, Vegas, and the GOP is dominant everywhere else. But
Clark County has almost 70% of the states vote, and the key to
victory or defeat lies in the hands of the overwhelmingly Hispanic
members of the Culinary Workers Union who work on the Vegas Strip.
Their political muscle is the handiwork of former Democratic Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid. Reid's machine was instrumental two
years ago in enabling Catherine Cortez Masto to become the first
Latina elected to the United States Senate. Now Reid has thrown his
support to Rosen. He comes up short this time. Heller wins. 53
Republicans- 46 Democrats.
ARIZONA-Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally is opposed by
Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema to fill the seat of retiring
Republican Senator Jeff Flake. The wild card in this race is John
McCain. He was a war hero, a man of integrity, a conservative, and a
man who knew that for the Senate to function it had to work across
the aisle. All those admirable qualities made him the enemy of
President Trump. Tomorrow McCain voters will take their revenge.
Sinema wins. 53 Republicans-47 Democrats.
There you have it. The Republicans retain control of the Senate, and
gain two seats, 53-47.
A CAVEAT
Included in the low hanging fruit states above is New Jersey where
incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez is opposed by Republican Bob Hugin.
New Jersey is an overwhelmingly Democratic state. and polls have
consistently shown Menendez with a commanding lead. But earlier this
year he dodged a bullet when a mistrial was declared in his
corruption trial. Menendez is damaged goods, and I will not be
shocked if lightning were to strike tomorrow and his defeat would
turn out to be the major shocker of 2018 Senate election cycle.
CONCLUSION
This election, contrary to what the politicians of both parties and
the media would have you believe, is not the most important in the
nation's history. Far from that lofty description, it is in fact an
embarrassment of politics at its worst. What we faced before the
election was gridlock in Washington. What we will face when the new
Congress convenes next January is gridlock. Nothing significant will
have changed. Even if the Democrats had captured the House and the
Senate it would have made no never mind. They would have lacked the
60 votes in the Senate to defeat filibusters. And, if by some
miracle, the Democrats could have sent major legislation to the
President, he would veto it, and the Democrats would not have the
votes to override his vetoes.
What will be new next January will be the start of the 2020
Presidential campaign. Presumably that will lead to a battle between
president Trump, assuming he will have found a way to silence Special
Counsel Robert Mueller, and one of many Democrats from the far Left
fringe of the Party who will likely be a female or a minority or both
and whose every other word on the campaign trail will be “ME” or
“TOO”.
If I were king, I'd dump the entire nation's supply of Dulcolax into
the Potomac River on New's Years' Eve and let nature take its course.
Maybe that would provide the explosive shock to the body politic
that is so long overdue and so urgently necessary.
Contact LeRoy Goldman:
