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Sunday, June 17, 2012

Oh, no, another gray flannel suit




Oh, no, another gray flannel suit

Sloan Wilson's 1955 novel "The Man In the Gray Flannel Suit," and the movie the following year starring Gregory Peck and Jennifer Jones, were hugely popular. Each provided a jarring and penetrating look at conformity, especially in the upper echelons of corporate America.
Organizations of all kinds breed and demand conformity. Regrettably, it's a part of their DNA, and too frequently it's also a fatal disease.
And when we think about Mitt Romney, we also think about Bain Capital, the private equity investment firm that he co-founded a quarter-century ago, which has enabled him to now have a net worth of about a quarter of a billion dollars.
Romney is cut from the gray flannel cloth of corporate conformity. And like so many others cut from that cloth, he's perceived as bloodless, stodgy, aloof, unfriendly and unimaginative. Whether these characterizations are accurate or fair is not the point. And that's because in politics, perceptions are just as important as reality.
Therefore, it's undeniable that one of the problems the standoffish Romney faces in his battle with President Barack Obama is that most Americans like Obama, including many who don't think he's done a particularly good job as president.
Romney can't change who he is and how he's perceived. But he can help his campaign enormously, depending on whom he selects as his running mate. And the Romney campaign surely knows that it is the underdog in this election. Don't be fooled by the plethora of national polls that show the two candidates running neck and neck. They are misleading because the election is not a national election. It's a state-by-state, trench warfare election that in fact comes down to a dozen swing states, including North Carolina.
The winner on Nov. 6 will be the candidate who can carry most of those states. And the Romney campaign knows that Obama has the upper hand in a majority of those battleground states. The president has more pathways that lead to victory in those states than does Romney. Indeed, the eye of the needle that Romney must thread is very narrow.
Two of the most important battleground states are Florida and Ohio. Thus, it's not surprising that the names you hear mentioned the most for Romney's running mate are Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio. Both of them are 21st century versions of men in gray flannel suits.
Marco Rubio is 41 and has served in the Senate since 2010. His parents were immigrants from Cuba. Rubio has been called the "crown prince" of the tea party. Now, there is no doubt that Romney must enlarge his support among the nation's Hispanics if he is to win. And Florida is certainly crucial in that regard. But putting Rubio on the ticket won't help enough with the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in battleground states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.
And it's way too late to be focused on wooing the tea party vote. To win, Romney must appeal to independents and suburban women. Furthermore, Romney should be able to carry Florida without Rubio. If he can't, you can turn off the TV and go to bed. It's over.
Now, Ohio is a different kettle of fish. Frankly, I can't see a way for Romney to defeat the president if he doesn't carry the Buckeye State. And Obama leads in Ohio. He's being helped by his bailout of the auto industry, which Romney opposed. That's why Sen. Portman is the putative front-runner in the veep stakes.
Portman, 57, was elected to the Senate in 2010 after having been a seven-term congressman from Cincinnati. He grew up in his father's business, the Portman Equipment Co. Portman is seasoned, competent, but as buttoned down as they come. His political philosophy is grounded in entrepreneurship. His ability to reach out to working class and independent voters is limited.
And he comes from the most reliably Republican part of Ohio — Cincinnati. To carry Ohio, Romney must be competitive in the middle- and working class suburbs north of Columbus, in places like Toledo, Akron, Cleveland and Youngstown.
Romney needs to break the mold with his choice for vice president. That man is Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey. Christie is articulate, flamboyant, a risk taker, a straight talker and, most importantly, a man who is understood and trusted by working class Americans. In addition, putting Christie on the ticket will put solidly blue New Jersey "in play." It's unlikely Romney will carry the Garden State, but putting Christie on the ticket will force the Democrats to compete in Jersey. And that will cost them heavily because the television advertising they will have to buy will come out of New York City and Philadelphia. And those markets are exceedingly expensive.
Moreover, Christie wants the job. Win or lose in November, he'll be next in line for the GOP presidential nomination. The question is whether Romney can think beyond his buttoned-down collar and his gray flannel suit.


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