Three crazy Kims are three too many
At the end of World War II, Josef
Stalin needed to install a puppet leader in North Korea. He turned to
Lavrenty Beria, head of the NKVD (Soviet secret police), for advice.
Beria recommended Kim Il-sung, who
became North Korea's head of state from its establishment in 1948
until his death in 1994. Thus began a dynasty of totalitarian tyrants
that went on to include his son, Kim Jong-il, and now includes his
28-year-old son, Kim Jong-un.
In June 1950, North Korea invaded
South Korea. When hostilities ceased three years later, the Korean
Peninsula was cut in half at the 38th parallel. A Demilitarized Zone
(DMZ) separates the two hostile nations.
Since then, the two nations have
gone in opposite directions. South Korea is free and has become a
prosperous engine of commerce and enterprise. It is non-nuclear but
relies upon the treaty arrangement it has with our nation to defend
it, if attacked. The United States has about 30,000 troops in South
Korea.
North Korea has been a hermetically
sealed police state since its founding. It is impoverished and has
endured terrible famines. At least 25 percent of its meager GDP is
devoted to its military and nuclear ambitions. Its State Security
Department has operated concentration camps since the 1950s that
specialize in murder, torture, starvation, forced abortion, rape and
medical experimentation. North Koreans are sent to the Gulag without
benefit of trial.
The North Korean Army numbers 1.1
million with another 8.2 million in reserve. It is the fourth largest
army in the world. North Korea has trained revolutionary and
terrorist groups from more than 60 countries, including the Palestine
Liberation Organization and the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic
Revolution. Its substantial export of armaments and missile
technology is carried out by a front organization, the Korea Mining
and Development Training Corp., which has sold missile technology to
Iran.
North Korea has been actively
developing nuclear weapons and delivery systems for years. The United
States estimates that it possesses enough nuclear material for two to
nine nuclear warheads.
Efforts by the U.S. to use
diplomacy, sanctions, appeals to China, and food and energy
assistance have all met with failure to convince North Korea to turn
away from its military and nuclear ambitions. And now the rise of the
untested Kim Jong-un has made a bad situation incomparably worse.
American foreign policy has failed
to cope with North Korea's growing nuclear capability because it
assumes a modicum of rational self-interest exists in Pyongyang. It
doesn't. Kim is crazy. It runs in his family. And Kim doesn't have a
Bushmaster with a high-capacity magazine. He's got nukes and an
insatiable appetite for more. Think of him as Adam Lanza on
radioactive steroids.
Pyongyang expelled the inspectors
from the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2009. Kim has recently
announced he will restart a plutonium/uranium refining reactor at
Yongbyon. In February, he authorized the nation's third nuclear test.
Now he's barred South Koreans from the only cooperative industrial
complex in the North. In addition, he has declared a state of war
with South Korea and vowed to launch nuclear missiles at the United
States.
Most "experts" in the
West discount all of this as bravado. If they are wrong, it's a
gigantic and unpardonable miscalculation on our part.
Three-quarters of Kim's 1.1 million
army and 10,000 artillery pieces are massed within 60 miles of the
DMZ, less than 100 miles from Seoul. A war between these two nations
would be savage. Seoul would be pulverized. Civilian casualties would
be enormous. South Korea's economy would be plunged into darkness,
and that darkness would infect the global marketplace from Asia to
America within days.
But even if the experts are right
and none of that happens, the continuation of the status quo only
results in ever increasing numbers of nuclear weapons for Kim's
regime, already the most militarized society on Earth. And the status
quo increases the probability that nations like South Korea and Japan
will feel compelled to go nuclear, too.
If that happens, expect Vietnam to
follow suit. That's an outcome that not only the United States
opposes, so would China. That commonality of interest offers the best
way out of this growing crisis.
President Barack Obama should send
Jon Huntsman, his former U.S. ambassador to Beijing, on a secret
mission to China. Huntsman speaks Mandarin, and he and the leaders in
Beijing know and respect one another. The message that Huntsman
should carry to Beijing is simple. Neither county's interest is
served if South Korea, Japan and Vietnam join the nuclear club.
Neither country's interest is served if Kim attacks the South.
Neither country's interest is served if Kim continues his obsession
to acquire nuclear weapons.
Huntsman must press China to force
the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons program and remove
Kim. There is no doubt that China can do that if it wishes. Finally,
Huntsman's message must enable Beijing to read between the lines and
understand that if they don't act, America will.
Our action, if necessary, should be
pre-emptive and massive. It should destroy the entirety of Kim's
nuclear infrastructure and his military machine. The strike should
make use of enough tactical nuclear weapons to assure success. Their
use would have an additional salutary effect — in Tehran!
The Shadow's brushing up on his
Mandarin, but Goldman can be reached at: EmailMe
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