Tuesday should be telling for GOP

It's only a 275 mile drive from Richmond to Trenton. But given the dynamics of the two gubernatorial elections that will reach their climax this Tuesday, these two state capitals might just as well be on opposite sides of our Milky Way Galaxy.

There appears to be little doubt that Republican, Ken Cuccinelli, will be defeated in Virginia, while Republican Governor, Chris Christie will be reelected in New Jersey. Cuccinelli is likely to lose by as much as 10%, and Christie may win by more than 25%. The oddity, of course, is that Virginia has been a solidly Republican state until very recently. On the other hand New Jersey is a solidly Blue, reliably Democratic state.

Understanding the anomalous nature of a Republican loss in Virginia, coupled with a Republican victory in New Jersey, can teach us a lot about whether the GOP can win back the Senate in 2014 and the White House in 2016, or whether it might lose the House in 2014 and be pulverized by Hillary Clinton 2016.

THE OLD DOMINION

The Governor's race in Virginia is a three-way battle among the Commonwealth's Attorney General, Republican Ken Cuccinelli, businessman and former Democratic National Committee Chairman, Terry McAuliffe, and lawyer and businessman, Libertarian Robert Sarvis.

From 1952 until 2004 Virginia's Presidential electoral votes have been cast for Republicans with the exception of 1964. But President Obama carried the Old Dominion in both 2008 and 2012. And now Virginia is no longer Red. It's Purple.

Significant demographic changes in Virginia account for its transformation. Chief among those changes is the explosive population growth in Northern Virginia, the Washington suburbs. Much of that growth is accounted for by an influx of Hispanics. A disproportionately large number of these individuals vote Democratic. And many of them are Federal employees.

Cuccinelli has not been able to navigate successfully between the ideologically driven Tea Party wing and the more pragmatic and moderate Republicans in Northern Virgina and in the Richmond suburbs of Henrico and Chersterfield counties. The presence of third party candidate, Libertarian Robert Sarvis, on the ballot continues to bleed Tea Party supporters from Cuccinelli. Lastly, the radioactive fallout from the recent Government shutdown and debt ceiling crises have hurt the Cuccinelli campaign badly, probably mortally, in the vote-rich suburbs outside the Washington Beltway.

McAuliffe is extremely wealthy and an inveterate optimist. He has a $10 million dollar advantage over Cuccinelli in campaign funds, and more importantly he has the Clintons. Bill and Hillary Clinton have been McAuliffe's close personal friends for decades. The families vacation together. McAuliffe has raised over $400 million for the Clinton's presidential campaigns. He was the Chairman of Hillary's unsuccessful 2008 bid for the White House. In 1999 when the Clinton's needed financial assistance to purchase their lavish home in Chappaqua, NY, McAuliffe personally secured their mortgage with $1.5 million in cash. Now the Clintons are campaigning for McAuliffe in Virginia. And it's more than friendship. The Clinton's want to be able to leverage a state Democratic Machine in Richmond in 2016.

THE GARDEN STATE

In New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie seeks a second term. He is opposed by Democratic State Senator Barbara Buono. Virtually all polling organizations show Christie with a huge edge, approaching 2:1. Barbara Buono will be buried under an avalanche of Christie votes Tuesday night. What remains unknown is how big the margin will be and, more importantly, how well Christie does with Hispanics, African-Americans, and Independents.

Christie is a conservative Republican who has demonstrated that he can not only win in a Blue state like New Jersey, but that he can govern successfully even though the Democrats control both chambers of the State legislature. How many news reports have you heard that describe impasse in Trenton like the impasse in Washington? If Christie couldn't effectively reach across the aisle and work with Democrats to solve problems, he would not be on his way to overwhelming reelection.

About 18% of New Jersey's population is Hispanic. Only seven states have a larger Hispanic population. And in mid October Governor Christie spoke to supporters at the Sabor Latino restaurant in Dover, New Jersey. What he said is what distinguishes him from folks like Ken Cuccinelli and those at right fanatical fringe of the Republican party who suffer from a doctrinally-induced coma.

Christie said, “The eyes of America will be on New Jersey on November 5^th. What they're going to see is a coalition supporting the governor like no other Republican has anywhere in the country: Hispanic voters, African-American voters, members of the building trade unions, people who live in the suburbs, people who live in cities, people who live on our farms”.

New Jersey law precludes a governor from serving more than two consecutive terms. So what's coming is a titanic struggle for the soul and the future of the Republican Party that will play out over the battle for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2016.

One of Trenton's famous landmarks is the TRENTON MAKES: THE WORLD TAKES Bridge over the Delaware River. Those words, illuminated in neon, can easily be seen by passengers taking the high speed trains from Washington and Philadelphia north to New York and Boston. In 2016 Chris Christie is hoping to redefine that 1935 motto into WHAT TRENTON MADE, AMERICA TAKES. His chief adversary is his own party!