North Carolina is purple, not blue – at least not yet

North Carolina is purple, not blue – at least not yet

Lee Goldman:  May 17, 2014

"The Shadow Knows"

Over the past two decades the national government in Washington has been brought to a halt by growing partisan hatred and distrust between Republicans and Democrats. In the 1990s Bill and Hillary Clinton, together with Newt Gingrich, poisoned the well of bipartisan cooperation. Think Hillarycare, Monica Lewinsky and impeachment.

President Bush’s war in Iraq, coupled with profligate spending throughout his two terms in office, escalated partisan rancor and emasculated Bush and the GOP brand. In Peter Baker’s recent book, “Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House,’’ Baker quotes a senior official in the Bush administration who said, “the only reason we went into Iraq is we were looking for somebody’s ass to kick.” By 2008 the Republican carnage was so great that any Democrat, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or Bugs Bunny, was a shoo-in.

But President Obama, whose campaign mantra was, “Change We Can Believe In,” didn’t deliver on his promise. Instead he overreached with his incomprehensible health proposal, rammed it through Congress with no Republican support, and created such a virulent political backlash that in 2010 it enabled radical tea party Republicans to seize control of the House and enlarge their foothold in the Senate. These Republican radicals loathe Obama. Their world view is circumscribed by their hatred of the president and their obsession to repeal, rather than fix, Obamacare. The net result is that Congress’ approval rating is in the toilet and Obama is a lame duck.

But there is more here to be concerned about than bitter philosophical differences between two increasingly ideologically driven political parties. There is mounting evidence that the GOP has been in the process of systematically destroying itself and its ability to successfully govern the nation.

In 2010 the GOP fell short in its attempt to regain control of the Senate. It fell short because it nominated ideological zealots in three states, Delaware, Colorado and Nevada, who had no chance to win. Not having learned their lesson, the GOP repeated their suicidal blunder in 2012 in Missouri and Indiana. Thus, as we approach the 2014 election, the GOP needs to gain a net of six seats (instead of one) to capture the Senate. Amazingly, they have a shot.

The Senate race in North Carolina is crucial if the GOP is to win back the Senate this year. Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan will face off against Republican Thom Tillis. In their recent primary election, Republicans chose Tillis over a pair of far right Republicans who would not have stood a chance against Hagan. But Tillis is a self-proclaimed conservative. What remains to be seen is whether he’s willing and able to espouse policies that will appeal to a large majority of the 1.7 million unaffiliated voters in our state. If he doesn’t, he’ll lose. If Tillis believes that Hagan’s vote for Obamacare will be enough to defeat her, he’s wrong.

And there is much more at stake here than whether Tillis wins or the GOP reclaims the Senate this fall. The 2014 election is simply the run-up to the 2016 presidential election. And there too North Carolina is crucial. It’s crucial because it is one of only a few states, the purple states, that determine who wins the White House. Those eight states include North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. In the recent past New Mexico and West Virginia were purple. Georgia, Arizona and Texas, with a bonanza of 38 electoral votes, are becoming purple.

What is not discussed, but what is crucially important, is the direction in which states transition from red through purple to blue or vice versa. Only West Virginia, with a paltry 5 electoral votes, of the 13 states listed above has moved from blue to red. All of the others are moving in the opposite direction, from red to blue. Why?

In politics demography is destiny, and the face of America is changing. That change can be captured in a single word — Hispanic. For example, based on the 2010 census, the Hispanic population in North Carolina increased 100 percent in the last decade.

The doctrinal zealots who have called the shots in the Republican Party have chosen to deny this reality. If they don’t wise up soon, it’s a death sentence. Watching the Tillis Senate campaign will help illuminate whether the GOP has come to its senses.

LeRoy Goldman is an unaffiliated voter who lives in Flat Rock. He can be reached at: EmailMe