A Romney return in 2016?

July 17, 2014

LeRoy Goldman

“Oh, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. No, no, no.”

This is what Mitt Romney said to Ashley Parker of the New York Times when she interviewed him last January and asked him about 2016. I have no reason to doubt Romney’s repeated denials. After all, he had failed in his bid to secure the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, a blessing in disguise in that no Republican had any chance of winning that year. And, after winning the nomination in 2012, he and his campaign came to election night believing they were going to win. But he lost the popular vote by four points, and not surprisingly got hammered in the Electoral College because he lost all of the battleground states except North Carolina.

The shock of that unexpected defeat was for Romney and his entire family a cathartic moment. They decided it was time for him and for them to move on. Thus, not only has he repeatedly denied any interest in 2016, he has done nothing to give the lie to those denials. There is no comparison between Romney’s consistent denials and Hillary Clinton’s speaking tour, book tour and faux presidential teases.

But maybe, just maybe, Mitt Romney has a rendezvous with destiny.

It’s Republicans’ turn

Looking back at presidential elections over the past half century reveals a repetitive pattern. Once elected, most presidents get reelected. Ike won twice. LBJ won what would probably have been JFK’s second term. Nixon won twice. Reagan had two terms. Clinton was reelected. George W. Bush had two terms. And President Obama is in his second term.

The other basic pattern that has characterized the American electorate is that after two terms, the voters turn the reins of government over to the opposing party. Thus, the Republicans captured the White House in 1952, 1968, 1980, and 2000, while the Democrats did so in 1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008.

If the pattern holds, the Republicans should have the upper hand in the 2016 presidential election. And there is plenty of evidence that should buoy Republican spirits while depressing those of their Democratic opponents.

Obama’s failures help

President Obama’s approval rating is in the tank. A large majority of the American people continue to believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. The president’s only major legislative accomplishment, Obamacare, ripped the nation in half and was the determinative factor that enabled the GOP to take control of the House of Representatives in 2010.

In addition, the president has not been able to close the deal with Congress on the major issues confronting the country: debt reduction, entitlement reform, tax reform, immigration reform, energy independence and jobs. In foreign relations his track record is similarly barren. The United States is no longer respected by its allies or feared by its enemies. It matters not whether one looks at Eastern Europe, the Middle East or Asia, the United States no longer projects strength, freedom and hope. Instead America projects indecision and incoherence.

Finally, the Obama administration is reeling under the drip, drip, drip of scandals on their watch that they can’t wish away or blame on the House Republicans. You know their names; IRS, Benghazi, VA, NSA, healthcare.gov, and now the flood of children illegally crossing our southern border.

Given all of this, it would appear that the GOP ought to be able to coast to victory in 2016. History is on its side, and the ineptitude and bungling of the Obama administration and their Democratic allies on Capitol Hill have been nothing short of stunning.

An underwhelming field

But ask yourself: Why would Hillary Clinton be making all the right moves to become the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016 if the nomination was doomed to failure? There is no doubt she’s politically savvy. Thus, it’s obvious that she believes she can win. What gives her that confidence?

The answer is that the prospective field of GOP nominees is a field of losers. Ponder these names: Paul, Rubio, Cruz, Santorum, Christie, Walker, Jindal, Perry, Huckabee, Ryan, and Bush. With the exception of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, none of these other aspirants can put together an electoral majority that wins the White House.

And among the 11 contenders, Jeb Bush is the reluctant dragon. It’s not just his mother who doesn’t want him to run. More significantly neither does his wife, Columba.

No, if Republicans are to win in 2016, they must look elsewhere for their nominee. And that is why it’s only a matter of time before the party elders turn to Mitt Romney.

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