Republicans to recapture Senate, enlarge majority in house

Published: Asheville Citizen-Times

LeRoy Goldman 6:03 p.m. EST November 2, 2014

The stars are properly aligned for the GOP in the election 

Tuesday November 4, 2014

History is on their side. Congressional elections in the sixth year of a president's term usually deliver a harsh rebuke to the president and his party. It happened to Ike in 1958, to Nixon in 1974 and to George W. Bush in 2006. It's about to happen again.

In addition, the Republicans have a huge advantage in the Senate in that many of the seats Democrats are attempting to defend this year are in red states in the Midwest and the South. Moreover, voter turnout is lower in non-presidential elections and that hurts the Democrats too because fewer young people and minorities vote.

And there's plenty of polling data that are harbingers of trouble for the Obama administration and Democrats. The president's approval rating has been in the tank for months. Most Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. And there is a growing consensus that the Obama administration simply can't govern competently. The drip, drip, drip of incompetence may be hard to quantify, but it's real and ultimately crippling. Over the past year, Americans have witnessed the failed rollout of Obamacare, the willingness of the VA to allow veterans to die unnecessarily, the botched response to the ISIS threat, a Secret Service that is too stupid to lock the front door of the White House and now Ebola.

The Republicans control the House of Representative by a margin of 234-201. Tuesday night they will modestly increase that margin. The reason their gains will be minimal is that they harvested all of the low-hanging fruit in the election of 2010 when they picked up 63 seats in the House and simultaneously gained 720 seats in state legislatures throughout the nation. They then used their new majorities to gerrymander large numbers of congressional districts in many states, including ours here in the mountains. Mark Meadows wins without breaking a sweat.

Gerrymandering is an equal-opportunity evil. The Democrats are experts at it too. In the 12th District of Michigan, Democrat Debbie Dingell will win Tuesday night replacing her husband, John, who was initially elected in 1955. John replaced his father who was first elected in 1932. Thanks to gerrymandering, this district has become the Divine Right of Dingells.

Don't think for a moment that you pick your congressman on election night. They pick you way before the election by gerrymandering most House districts.

When all is said and done Tuesday, the GOP will control the House 242-193.

The real battle Tuesday is for control of the Senate, where the Democrats currently have a 55-45 majority. Thirty-six seats are up for election — 21 Democrats and 15 Republicans. The GOP needs to gain at least six seats to take control of the Senate. It's going to happen. Here's how.

Democrats will successfully defend 11 of their 21, and the GOP will successfully defend 12 of their 15. Thus, the real battleground is the remaining 13 states: Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Kansas, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina.

Three popular Democratic senators are not seeking reelection in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. The GOP picks up all three. Republicans also will successfully defend seats in Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas, though Georgia may require a run-off on Jan. 6, and Kansas is a barn-burner between Republican Senator Roberts and Independent Greg Orman, who won't say which party he will caucus with.

Three incumbent Democrats will be defeated in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana, though Louisiana may require a run-off in December.

That leaves the four Democratically controlled swing states of New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorad, and North Carolina. Pay close attention to New Hampshire, where Scott Brown attempts to oust Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen has led in the polls for months. She probably wins, but the longer into the night the race goes uncalled by the networks, the better the outlook for the GOP nationwide.

In Iowa and Colorado, respectively, Republicans Joni Ernst and Cory Gardner win.

Here in North Carolina, Obama's and Harry Reid's doormat, Kay Hagan, is reelected thanks to the bungled job Thom Tillis did as House Speaker in Raleigh on the education issue and the ineptitude of his Senate campaign. Sadly, the most expensive Senate race in United States' history forces us to pick a winner from two losers.

Final tally: Republicans 53, Democrats 47

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