Wanted: a Republican dark horse

 Wanted: a Republican dark horse

By:  LeRoy Goldman

Ashville Citizen-Times

May 1, 2015

Hillary Clinton’s coronation as the 2016 presidential nominee of the Democratic Party has begun. Almost certainly it will reach its climax when the Democrats gather in Philadelphia 15 months from now. Whatever you think of Hillary, she’s no fool. And while there is no doubt that becoming president has been and will remain the controlling force of her every move, she also knows that 2016 should be a year that strongly favors the Republicans. Yet she believes she will win, and most election experts agree that outcome is possible or likely.

Understanding why that is the case is really important, especially for the Republicans. History teaches us that 2016 ought to be a Republican year. The electorate’s fatigue with Democratic presidents led to the election of Republicans in 1952 (Eisenhower), 1968 (Nixon), 1980 (Reagan), and 2000 (George W. Bush).

Of course, this sort of predictable fatigue has worked in reverse. It enabled the Democrats to win in 1960 (Kennedy-Johnson), 1976 (Carter), 1992 (Clinton), and 2008 (Obama).

So, 2016 should be a year for the triumphant return of the GOP. Only ideologues of the left are blind to Obama fatigue. He’s been one of the most polarizing presidents in the nation’s history. A very large majority of the American people believe the nation is on the wrong track. America’s standing in the world has been undercut by our adversaries, and questioned by our allies.

Hillary Clinton will be 69 next year. But her candidacy is driven by much more than the fact that her age makes 2016 her last hurrah. She’s banking on the suicidal instincts of right wing Republicans. Their blinding doctrinal purity is Hillary’s ace in the hole.

There are about 20 individuals seeking or considering seeking the Republican nomination. With the possible exception of Jeb Bush, the front runners, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul have something in common. None of them can win the 270 electoral votes it takes to win the presidency. But the ideologues of the right are blind to that reality. More importantly, their lack of clear vision imperils Jeb Bush’s candidacy.

Bush will not win the Iowa caucasus because they will be dominated by doctrinaire right wingers. If he does not win the New Hampshire primary, a real possibility, he’s likely toast, and then door opens for one of the right-wingers who can’t beat Hillary.

To win, the GOP needs a dark horse. And they have one: Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Kasich is 62, and was elected to the House of Representatives from Columbus in 1982, where he served until 2001. In Congress Kasich was a fiscal conservative who was able to work across the aisle with Democrats. In 1995 he became hairman of the House Budget Committee. At that time the federal budget deficit was $163 billion. Kasich was the architect of the 1997 Balanced Budget Act, which led to a budget surplus of $236 billion, the first such surplus since 1969.

In 2010, Kasich was elected governor of Ohio. He was re-elected in 2014 in a landslide, crushing his Democratic opponent by a million votes. He carried 86 of Ohio’s 88 counties, including those that encompass Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, Akron, and Toledo. Kasich won 26 percent of Ohio’s black vote and was endorsed by the state’s oldest and largest black newspaper, the Cleveland Call and Post. He’s become a proven chief executive who has successfully solidified his conservative base while at the same time reaching out to independents and Democrats in a state that is a microcosm of America. That’s the disappearing quality that separates him from the ideologues of the right who can win in the red states, but can’t carry swing states, like Ohio.

John Kasich connects with average Americans. His optimism and energy are infectious. He doesn’t need to fake it.

Most Americans don’t have the time or the interest in pouring through the mountain of data that political junkies thrive on. However, there is an easy and remarkably reliable way to cut through all of these data.

It’s called the I-70 Rust Belt Rule. Interstate Highway 70 crosses Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. The Rust Belt Rule says the candidate who wins at least three of those five states will win the presidency. Pennsylvania and Illinois usually vote Democratic. Indiana and Missouri are usually Republican. The linchpin is Ohio. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. Kasich will.

Goldman lives in Flat Rock. He was member of the federal government’s senior executive service for many years.

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