2016
Secretariat of the GOP presidential race
BY
LEROY GOLDMAN
Charlotte Observer 9-23-2015
Special
to the Observer
We know Hillary Clinton
believes America urgently needs a female president. And we know that
she believes 2016 is the year. She’s right, and the only way we
can be certain that she’s right is if the nominee of both parties
is a woman. I believe the odds now favor that outcome – Hillary
Clinton and Carly Fiorina.
Clinton
remains the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
But the GOP race is wide open.
The
Reagan Presidential Library hosted the second GOP debate last week.
Fifteen of the 16 GOP hopefuls duked it out in front of President
Reagan’s Air Force One. It was high drama – funny at times,
combative, substantive. Most importantly, it began the process of
separating the field into winners and losers.
History
teaches us that Republicans should win the White House next year.
The American people usually turn the reins of power over to the
other party after one party has had two terms in office. It happened
in 1952, 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, and 2008.
What
threatens a GOP victory in 2016 is that it’s fractured right down
the middle. Its two warring camps include the Establishment
Republicans and their longstanding ties to the business community
and the Insurgent Republicans with their ties to the Tea Party.
These warring factions despise one another. It’s They distrust one
another as much as they oppose Barack Obama and his policies. Look,
for example, at the Insurgents’ efforts to depose House Speaker
John Boehner and their counterproductive willingness to again shut
down the federal government.
If
the GOP fails to nominate someone who can bridge this chasm, it will
fall short next year. It’s Hillary’s key to victory.
None
of the GOP hopefuls has, as yet, demonstrated how he or she can not
only bridge the divide that has torn the GOP in half, but also how
to effectively reach out to Independents and minorities, especially
in the swing states that will determine who wins.
That
said, the recent debate has begun the winnowing process. Only six of
the GOP hopefuls still have a presidential pulse post-debate. Three
are primarily Establishment candidates: Jeb Bush, John Kasich and
Marco Rubio. The other three are Insurgents: Donald Trump, Ben
Carson and Carly Fiorina.
Three
of them, however, are walking dead, though they and their most
ardent supporters have yet to realize it. Bush lacks the requisite
fire in the belly, and he can’t change his last name. When Carson
opens his mouth we realize that he is sincere, and hasn’t a clue
how to master the levers of power in Washington. Trump is Carson
absent the sincerity. Put a fork in them. They’re done.
Fiorina,
however, has surprised to the upside in both GOP debates. In each
debate she was the clear winner. She’s poised, confident, and she
far outdistances all of her rivals in her grasp of both domestic and
foreign policy issues. She is tenacious and, as a woman, will be
able to confront Clinton in ways that no man could. If she taps
either Rubio or Kasich as her running mate, she can heal the GOP and
reach out to Independents and minorities.
In
a light moment Jake Tapper, the debate’s moderator, asked each
candidate to pick their Secret Service codename. Fiorina
provocatively chose “Secretariat.” Secretariat was the
thoroughbred who won the Triple Crown in 1973 by winning the Belmont
Stakes in the fastest time ever and by an astonishing 31 lengths!
Put
your money on Fiorina while the betting odds are still eye-poppingly
attractive!
Goldman worked on Capitol Hill and at the National Institutes of Health. He has retired to Flat Rock and can be reached at: EmailMe
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