March Madness: The road to the Final One
By
LeRoy Goldman
Guest Columnist
Asheville Citizen-Times
March 18, 2016
Initially
there were 22 individuals running for President, 17 Republicans and 5
Democrats. Today only five remain, Clinton, Sanders, Trump, Cruz and
Kasich. Virtually all of the conventional thinking by the soothsayers
in both parties has been proven ridiculously wrong.
On
the Republican side, while the pundits were right in anticipating a
dog fight, most of them expected that the nominee would be an
establishment Republican like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, or Mitt Romney,
while dismissing the candidacy of Donald Trump as an irrelevant and
horrible joke.
On
the Democratic side the pundits confidently expected that Hillary
Clinton’s nomination was inevitable, and that her opponents would
be handily and quickly swept aside.
In
last Tuesday’s primaries Hillary Clinton ran the table in Florida,
North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri. Donald Trump prevailed
in all of them but Ohio where John Kasich won. With his loss in
Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign.
In
the all-important delegate count, Clinton has about 1,565 delegates
to Sanders’ 858. Winning the Democratic nomination requires 2,382.
On the Republican side, Trump has about 690 with Ted Cruz at 420,
Rubio at 172, and Kasich at 138. Winning the GOP nomination requires
1237 delegates.
Neither
race is over, and here’s why: Bernie Sanders has enough money to
fight on all the way to the convention. More importantly, he may have
an ace in the hole that he wisely never mentions — the FBI
investigation of Clinton. If that investigation comes down hard on
Clinton, her campaign will self-destruct and hundreds of her unbound
superdelegates will jump ship.
If
Trump falls short of 1,237 delegates on the first ballot at the
convention, a distinct possibility, that triggers a contested
convention. And maybe, just maybe, enough delegates will have a “Come
to Jesus” moment and realize that both of their front runners are
November losers. If so, all bets are off.
I
know enough about presidential elections and how atypical this one is
to not pretend that I know how it will sort itself out at the
conventions this summer and at the ballot box in November. But I do
know that the Road to the Final One leaves little room for a result
that repairs the rupture in our politics and restores governance. But
little room isn’t no room.
Of
the five left standing, one has not yet demonstrated anything beyond
braggadocio that serves his purpose of inflaming the legitimate
frustrations of scores of millions of Americans who have been
abandoned by the powerful and politically correct in both political
parties. He’s Elmer Gantry channeling Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot.
Another
is an individual who is obsessed with winning at any cost and is also
distrusted by a large majority of the American people, including many
in her own party. She’s Tricky Dick in drag channeling her husband.
Another
is a candidate so dogmatically rigid that he makes President Obama
appear flexible. He’s Joe McCarthy channeling Barry Goldwater.
The
fourth is a candidate who repeatedly calls for a political
revolution, but lacks the courage to lead it by his refusal to
confront Hillary over her allegiance to Wall Street, her failings as
Secretary of State, and the fact that she’s not “Fighting For
Us”, but rather for herself. He’s Henry Wallace channeling Eugene
V. Debs.
The
fifth is different. He is humble, not arrogant. He’s not obsessed
with winning the White House. He has a solid record of accomplishment
as governor of a Rust Belt state that was hammered by the economic
meltdown of 2008-09. He has succeeded in reaching across the aisle to
forge workable policy and legislative coalitions with Democrats. He
was re-elected two years ago by carrying 86 of Ohio’s 88 counties,
including Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), while also winning an
astounding 26 percent of the African-American vote in a state the GOP
must win in November. He’s himself channeling Harry Truman.
However,
among the five left standing, he’s dead last. Most Americans have
never heard of John Kasich. Most talking heads wrote his candidacy
off long ago. He’s only won a single state, his own. But, if Trump
and Cruz prevent each other from wining a majority of delegates
before the convention, Kasich’s competence, compassion, and common
sense may enable him to unify the party and lead them to the victory
in November that otherwise will be lost.
Perhaps
2016 will be the year a “Bubble Team” is the Final One.
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