March Madness: The road to the Final One

By

LeRoy Goldman

Guest Columnist

Asheville Citizen-Times

March 18, 2016

Initially there were 22 individuals running for President, 17 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Today only five remain, Clinton, Sanders, Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Virtually all of the conventional thinking by the soothsayers in both parties has been proven ridiculously wrong.

On the Republican side, while the pundits were right in anticipating a dog fight, most of them expected that the nominee would be an establishment Republican like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, or Mitt Romney, while dismissing the candidacy of Donald Trump as an irrelevant and horrible joke.

On the Democratic side the pundits confidently expected that Hillary Clinton’s nomination was inevitable, and that her opponents would be handily and quickly swept aside.

In last Tuesday’s primaries Hillary Clinton ran the table in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri. Donald Trump prevailed in all of them but Ohio where John Kasich won. With his loss in Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign.

In the all-important delegate count, Clinton has about 1,565 delegates to Sanders’ 858. Winning the Democratic nomination requires 2,382. On the Republican side, Trump has about 690 with Ted Cruz at 420, Rubio at 172, and Kasich at 138. Winning the GOP nomination requires 1237 delegates.

Neither race is over, and here’s why: Bernie Sanders has enough money to fight on all the way to the convention. More importantly, he may have an ace in the hole that he wisely never mentions — the FBI investigation of Clinton. If that investigation comes down hard on Clinton, her campaign will self-destruct and hundreds of her unbound superdelegates will jump ship.

If Trump falls short of 1,237 delegates on the first ballot at the convention, a distinct possibility, that triggers a contested convention. And maybe, just maybe, enough delegates will have a “Come to Jesus” moment and realize that both of their front runners are November losers. If so, all bets are off.

I know enough about presidential elections and how atypical this one is to not pretend that I know how it will sort itself out at the conventions this summer and at the ballot box in November. But I do know that the Road to the Final One leaves little room for a result that repairs the rupture in our politics and restores governance. But little room isn’t no room.

Of the five left standing, one has not yet demonstrated anything beyond braggadocio that serves his purpose of inflaming the legitimate frustrations of scores of millions of Americans who have been abandoned by the powerful and politically correct in both political parties. He’s Elmer Gantry channeling Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot.

Another is an individual who is obsessed with winning at any cost and is also distrusted by a large majority of the American people, including many in her own party. She’s Tricky Dick in drag channeling her husband.

Another is a candidate so dogmatically rigid that he makes President Obama appear flexible. He’s Joe McCarthy channeling Barry Goldwater.

The fourth is a candidate who repeatedly calls for a political revolution, but lacks the courage to lead it by his refusal to confront Hillary over her allegiance to Wall Street, her failings as Secretary of State, and the fact that she’s not “Fighting For Us”, but rather for herself. He’s Henry Wallace channeling Eugene V. Debs.

The fifth is different. He is humble, not arrogant. He’s not obsessed with winning the White House. He has a solid record of accomplishment as governor of a Rust Belt state that was hammered by the economic meltdown of 2008-09. He has succeeded in reaching across the aisle to forge workable policy and legislative coalitions with Democrats. He was re-elected two years ago by carrying 86 of Ohio’s 88 counties, including Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), while also winning an astounding 26 percent of the African-American vote in a state the GOP must win in November. He’s himself channeling Harry Truman.

However, among the five left standing, he’s dead last. Most Americans have never heard of John Kasich. Most talking heads wrote his candidacy off long ago. He’s only won a single state, his own. But, if Trump and Cruz prevent each other from wining a majority of delegates before the convention, Kasich’s competence, compassion, and common sense may enable him to unify the party and lead them to the victory in November that otherwise will be lost.

Perhaps 2016 will be the year a “Bubble Team” is the Final One.

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