My early line on Romney, Obama

It all began when I cut my fifth-grade classes on Oct. 25, 1948, to hear President Harry Truman speak in Gary, Ind., from the back of his Whistle-Stop Campaign train, the Ferdinand Magellan.

It was only a week before the election, and Truman trailed his rival, New York Gov. Thomas Dewey. The "experts" agreed: Truman was a loser.

When he finished, I walked to Gary's Memorial Auditorium and heard him speak again. I came away convinced that this honest, plain-spoken man was going to win. I even bet my fifth-grade girlfriend $5, a king's ransom for a 10-year-old boy back then, that Truman would win. And to the dismay of the experts, but not Harry or me, he won.

As a delivery boy for the Chicago Tribune, I could hardly contain myself the morning after the election as I delivered the Trib that carried the infamous headline that erroneously screamed, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." My girlfriend paid up and never spoke to me again. I was hooked for life on predicting elections.

So here we go again. It's six months till the election. In politics, six months can be an eternity. But that said, let's handicap the coming battle between President Barack Obama and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.

For starters, let's remember something that won't change in the next six months. America is a deeply and closely divided nation politically. And that powerful reality contributes greatly to the fact that the government in Washington has been paralyzed for at least the past 15 years.

The red/blue divide is so deep that we know right now how 37 states and the District of Columbia will vote. For example, there is no chance, no chance at all, that Obama can carry states like Utah, Texas or South Carolina. And there is no chance, no chance at all, that Romney can carry states like Massachusetts, Maryland or California.

And so the winner will be determined by what happens in a baker's dozen of 13 "purple" states with their crucial 156 electoral votes. They are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

Obama's victory in 2008 was a blowout. He won by 10 million votes and by a landslide in the Electoral College, 365-173.

But 2012 is going to be different. The popular vote is going to be close, very close. But what counts, literally, is the vote in the Electoral College. And that will depend on Romney's daring and courage.

Incumbents have built-in advantages when seeking re-election, and Obama is no exception. And, unlike Romney, he is likable, and that is an enormous advantage. He has a superb campaign organization, and it will have access to more than $1 billion.

Romney is stiff and uncharismatic as a campaigner, and he's prone to gaffes. In addition, the dynamics of the Republican primaries have forced Romney far to the right, out into right-wingnut land, and that has cost him dearly among independents, suburban women and Hispanics.

These three groups hold the keys to victory or defeat this November. The independent vote will be crucial in all 13 purple states. The suburban women's vote will be especially vital in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Colorado. And the Hispanic vote will cast a large shadow across Virginia, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

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3We all know the central issue will be the economy and jobs. Obama will argue that he inherited a catastrophe from President George W. Bush and the GOP. He will say he has stopped the hemorrhaging and has begun to dig the nation out of this mess. He will say that with a second term America's future will again be bright.

To have a chance to win, and he does have a chance, Romney must counter with something much bolder and more substantive than simply attacking Obama, the Democrats and their policies. He must lay out a specific set of proposals that deal with economic growth, job creation, entitlement reform, tax reform, health care reform, energy independence, immigration reform and ending the war in Afghanistan.

If, instead, he just attacks Obama and then says "Rah-rah for the private sector," he's finished.

And he must do all of this before the Democrats have a chance to define him as a willing and compliant hostage of the right wingnuts and their satraps. Thus, he needs to do it now. Waiting until the convention is too late. The candidate who trails on Labor Day almost always loses in November.

If Romney sets forth such a bold and comprehensive agenda and hammers it relentlessly right up to Nov. 6, he can win. Sure, such a strategy will infuriate the right wingnuts. But so what? They loathe Obama so thoroughly that their votes are already in the bank.

Romney must be daring enough to go all-in, or he will come close, but lose.

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