Snatching defeat from jaws of victory

In the past century, only three sitting presidents have been defeated for re-election — Herbert Hoover in '32, Jimmy Carter in '80 and George H.W. Bush in '92. Although the circumstances of their defeats were not identical, all of them faced fierce headwinds from a faltering economy with which they could not cope. All of us remember the potency of the advice James Carville gave to Bill Clinton in 1992: "It's the economy stupid."

In fact, no president has ever been re-elected when unemployment was higher than 8 percent. And during President Barack Obama's time in office, the unemployment rate has been higher than 8 percent in every single month but one, his first month in office in January 2009, when it stood at 7.8 percent.

And the nation's economic problems go way beyond the unemployment rate.

The anemic growth of the overall economy is getting worse. For the last quarter, it was only 1.5 percent, and that guarantees that job creation will remain dismal going forward. The overall growth in the economy would need to be about 4 percent in order for there to be robust employment expansion.

So the conclusion seems clear — Obama is history. And I'll lay you long odds that there are plenty of Republicans who have jubilantly drawn that conclusion and are icing down the champagne.

Not so fast, Kemosabe. There's something weird going on this year. And it's something that bears close examination. We know that in most states, the election's over. In states like California and New Jersey, Obama will win going away. In states like Texas and Kentucky, Mitt Romney will win going away. Thus it all comes down to a dozen or fewer battleground states.

And in those battleground states the president leads in all but two, North Carolina and Florida. If those leads hold up on Nov. 6, the result will be a very, very close win for President Obama in the popular vote, but an overwhelming win in the vote that counts — the Electoral College.

In addition, the president's approval rating is the highest that it's been in a year, and it is slowly increasing. It currently stands at 46.8 percent. Electoral history teaches us that if a president has an approval rating higher than 50 percent, he's a shoo-in for re-election.

Now, the American people are not stupid. They know the economy is in the tank. They know the government in Washington is paralyzed and not effectively dealing with the major issues facing the nation. They know the Democrats control most of the levers of power in Washington, and they know the buck stops in the Oval Office.

They also know that candidate Obama promised hope and change and then ran from it like a scalded dog upon taking the oath of office.

And yet, in the face of all of this, and in contradistinction to historical precedent, Obama remains the man to beat. The explanation for this conundrum is much more than luck or the presence of satanic forces. It goes to the fact that Romney has yet to demonstrate that he's ready for prime time. And his time to do so is running out.

If the GOP had a candidate who knew where he wanted to take the country, who had specific and broadly understandable programs to move the nation forward, who could articulate those ideas with force and compassion, and who projected a greater concern for the nation's welfare rather than his own political ambition, then President Obama would not only be on the ropes, he'd be toast. But the GOP has no such candidate. It's got Mitt, and Mitt's made a mess of things.

Ponder this: The Romney campaign has allowed the summer to pass as the Democrats have successfully defined him as Bain Capital's rapacious corporate raider — a man who will stop at nothing in order to grow his vast wealth. In addition, Romney has refused to release all of his tax returns, suggesting that he's got something very damaging to hide.

And then he heads out on the obligatory foreign trip intended to demonstrate that he can handle foreign policy, and he bombs in London by offending the British government and the British people with his comments about their preparations for the Olympic Games. It was a show of arrogant stupidity that defied imagination.

Perhaps he'll right the ship when he makes his selection for vice president. However, the latest trial balloon that has been launched is that of former National Security adviser and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, a Gray Flannel Skirt, who is now back at Stanford University as a professor.

What would she bring to the ticket? Would she cut into the president's advantage with the African-American vote? Nope. Would she cut into the president's advantage with single women? Nope. Would she put her home state of California in play? Nope. Would she cut into the president's advantage with college students and academe? Nope. What she would do is give the Obama campaign the opportunity to remind voters that she supported the unnecessary and ill-fated Bush invasion of Iraq.

It is no wonder that Newsweek magazine's cover story is "Romney: The Wimp Factor."

The reason, lamentably, that President Obama remains the favorite for re-election, even in the face of a crippled economy that he has failed to fix, is that the nation faces a choice between a man who has proven that he can't do the job, but is likable, and a man who can't demonstrate that he could do the job, and isn't.

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