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Sunday, August 19, 2012


Spiral of self-destruction can be reversed 

Not only is America in decline, we can't figure out a way to reverse it. Breaking that cycle is essential for an American economic renaissance. It can be done, and here's how.
First, we must be clear about the trap we're in. Our economy was hammered five years ago in some ways worse than the Great Depression. Its recovery has been painfully slow and faltering. Today we do not know whether it will continue to creep forward or plunge back into recession.
We keep waiting for the government in Washington to lead us out of this mess. It hasn't, and it is not going to. The government is the problem. The government is $15 trillion in debt. For the first time in our history, its credit worthiness has been downgraded.
Our elected leaders can't agree on a federal budget, entitlement spending, taxes, immigration, energy or education. They only agree on one thing — getting re-elected. And they believe that you and I are stupid enough to give them what they seek — re-election. And so far they have been right!
Are you patriotic enough to stop being stupid? We need to learn some of the lessons from Thomas Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum's book, "That Used To Be Us." They correctly argue that our two political parties are now ideologically homogenous and unable to work together on our behalf. Democrats have become the most conservative force in Washington — defending every federal program in sight. The Republicans have become the party of fiscal radicalism and recklessness. Friedman and Mandelbaum correctly conclude that the Democrats are cowards and the Republicans are crazy.
To reverse the nation's spiral of self-destruction, we need to look under our feet. America is awash in reserves of shale gas and shale oil, immense amounts of both. These reserves can be recovered and marketed here and around the world.
In America there are two distinct energy markets. The transportation market, which includes automobiles and trucks, relies on oil. The electricity market relies upon coal, natural gas and nuclear power. By utilizing our reserves of shale oil and gas, this nation can free itself from the shackles of OPEC, achieve energy independence, create millions of jobs and ignite our moribund economy.
The Department of Energy's map of shale plays in the United States vividly demonstrates how extensive and abundant are these natural resources. They cover enormous swaths of land stretching from New York to Texas as well as the Intermountain West and California.
The principal oil shale play is located at the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, while the largest gas shale play is the Marcellus Formation in New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.
In July 2011, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy reported that the lower 48 states have a total of 750 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas with more than half of it located in the Marcellus Formation. The total amount of recoverable natural gas resources when Alaska and offshore sites are included soars to 4.2 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to the Institute for Energy Research.
That is enough natural gas to meet the nation's electricity demands for 575 years, enough natural gas to supply homes heated by natural gas for 857 years, and it's more natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan combined.
Our reserves of shale oil are equally impressive. The Green River Formation in the West contains about 3 trillion barrels of oil. In recent testimony before the House Energy Subcommittee, the General Accountability Office testified that the federal government was in a unique position to influence the development of this oil shale because about three quarters of it was beneath federal land. The Rand Corp. has estimated that 30 to 60 percent of oil shale at Green River can be recovered. That is an amount equal to the entire world's proven oil reserves.
Assuming the 3 trillion barrel estimate is correct and the price of oil is roughly $100 per barrel, the federal non-tax revenue from royalties alone approaches $37.5 trillion. That's more than double our national debt! And in addition to the royalty payments, more revenue would be generated through lease options.
A team of analysts and economists at Citigroup has estimated that energy independence can be achieved by 2020 and the United States can become a net exporter of crude oil, refined products and natural gas. Today there are about 4,300 supertankers plying the world's oceans. Only 59 of them fly the American flag. The opportunities presented in the combined oil and gas shale plays could give rise to the construction of a fleet of American supertankers.
And all of the forgoing has huge implications for manufacturing and jobs. Studies by Wood Mackenzie, the American Chemistry Council, the Public Policy Institute of New York, Penn State University, the Western Energy Alliance and PricewaterhouseCoopers, to name just a few, document job growth in the millions if these recoverable resources are brought to market.
What is staring us in the face is nothing less than a revitalization and re-industrialization of the American economy. It is the American economic renaissance. The question is how to organize the effort to seize that opportunity. My column on Sept. 2 will tackle that question.

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