Spiral of self-destruction can be reversed
Not only is America in decline, we
can't figure out a way to reverse it. Breaking that cycle is
essential for an American economic renaissance. It can be done, and
here's how.
First, we must be clear about the
trap we're in. Our economy was hammered five years ago in some ways
worse than the Great Depression. Its recovery has been painfully slow
and faltering. Today we do not know whether it will continue to creep
forward or plunge back into recession.
We keep waiting for the government
in Washington to lead us out of this mess. It hasn't, and it is not
going to. The government is the problem. The government is $15
trillion in debt. For the first time in our history, its credit
worthiness has been downgraded.
Our elected leaders can't agree on
a federal budget, entitlement spending, taxes, immigration, energy or
education. They only agree on one thing — getting re-elected. And
they believe that you and I are stupid enough to give them what they
seek — re-election. And so far they have been right!
Are you patriotic enough to stop
being stupid? We need to learn some of the lessons from Thomas
Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum's book, "That Used To Be Us."
They correctly argue that our two political parties are now
ideologically homogenous and unable to work together on our behalf.
Democrats have become the most conservative force in Washington —
defending every federal program in sight. The Republicans have become
the party of fiscal radicalism and recklessness. Friedman and
Mandelbaum correctly conclude that the Democrats are cowards and the
Republicans are crazy.
To reverse the nation's spiral of
self-destruction, we need to look under our feet. America is awash in
reserves of shale gas and shale oil, immense amounts of both. These
reserves can be recovered and marketed here and around the world.
In America there are two distinct
energy markets. The transportation market, which includes automobiles
and trucks, relies on oil. The electricity market relies upon coal,
natural gas and nuclear power. By utilizing our reserves of shale oil
and gas, this nation can free itself from the shackles of OPEC,
achieve energy independence, create millions of jobs and ignite our
moribund economy.
The Department of Energy's map of
shale plays in the United States vividly demonstrates how extensive
and abundant are these natural resources. They cover enormous swaths
of land stretching from New York to Texas as well as the
Intermountain West and California.
The principal oil shale play is
located at the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming,
while the largest gas shale play is the Marcellus Formation in New
York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.
In July 2011, the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy
reported that the lower 48 states have a total of 750 trillion cubic
feet of recoverable shale gas with more than half of it located in
the Marcellus Formation. The total amount of recoverable natural gas
resources when Alaska and offshore sites are included soars to 4.2
quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to the Institute for
Energy Research.
That is enough natural gas to meet
the nation's electricity demands for 575 years, enough natural gas to
supply homes heated by natural gas for 857 years, and it's more
natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan
combined.
Our reserves of shale oil are
equally impressive. The Green River Formation in the West contains
about 3 trillion barrels of oil. In recent testimony before the House
Energy Subcommittee, the General Accountability Office testified that
the federal government was in a unique position to influence the
development of this oil shale because about three quarters of it was
beneath federal land. The Rand Corp. has estimated that 30 to 60
percent of oil shale at Green River can be recovered. That is an
amount equal to the entire world's proven oil reserves.
Assuming the 3 trillion barrel
estimate is correct and the price of oil is roughly $100 per barrel,
the federal non-tax revenue from royalties alone approaches $37.5
trillion. That's more than double our national debt! And in addition
to the royalty payments, more revenue would be generated through
lease options.
A team of analysts and economists
at Citigroup has estimated that energy independence can be achieved
by 2020 and the United States can become a net exporter of crude oil,
refined products and natural gas. Today there are about 4,300
supertankers plying the world's oceans. Only 59 of them fly the
American flag. The opportunities presented in the combined oil and
gas shale plays could give rise to the construction of a fleet of
American supertankers.
And all of the forgoing has huge
implications for manufacturing and jobs. Studies by Wood Mackenzie,
the American Chemistry Council, the Public Policy Institute of New
York, Penn State University, the Western Energy Alliance and
PricewaterhouseCoopers, to name just a few, document job growth in
the millions if these recoverable resources are brought to market.
What is staring us in the face is
nothing less than a revitalization and re-industrialization of the
American economy. It is the American economic renaissance. The
question is how to organize the effort to seize that opportunity. My
column on Sept. 2 will tackle that question.
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