BLUE
RIDGE LECTURE—2012, WHO WON TOMORROW'S ELECTION
INTRODUCTION
Thank
you and I'm very glad to be back. Let me tell you how I'm planning
to organize our time this afternoon. First of all I want you to know
that I'm planning to leave more time than I have in past lectures for
your questions. Given as close as the race for the White House
appears to be, I want you to have ample time to raise your questions
about that or any other matter you wish.
I'm
going to begin by telling you about a proposal that I had the
opportunity to get into the hands of the Romney Campaign shortly
after he and his debate coach, Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, were in
Asheville about three weeks ago.
Then
I plan to reveal The Shadows predictions for the House, Senate, and
the White House. As many of you know, the predictions for the House
were published in my T-N column yesterday, and the predictions for
the Senate and the Presidency will be published tomorrow.
Finally,
before we get to your questions, I plan to talk a bit about who lost
tomorrow's election.
Now
before I outline this proposal that I sent to Governor Romney let's
deal with the bias sending such a proposal implies—that I'm a
Republican. I'm not a Republican or a Democrat, though in past
incarnations I've been both. I'm registered as Unaffiliated. And I
suppose that many of you know that T-N's op-ed columnist, Mike Tower,
and I co-founded CAPAU—Citizens Against Politics As Usual-- about a
year ago. CAPAU calls for the defeat of all Incumbents in
Washington, and Barack Obama is an incumbent. If you have questions
about our aversion to all incumbents, please raise them in the Q&A
session.
In
fact one of the things that I enjoy the most about reactions to my
columns in the Times-News are those that accuse me of being a closet
Democrat or a closet Republican. The discerning reader knows that I
turn my heavy artillery on wingnuts of both the Left and the Right.
PROPOSAL
TO ROMNEY CAMPAIGN
So,
here's what I sent to Governor Romney in mid-October:
“Let's
suppose the Romney Campaign believed that it would prevail on
November 6th
with a strategy the essence of which assaulted the glaring
inadequacies of the Obama Administration's stewardship over the past
four years. While there is no doubt that the Obama Administration
has failed to deal adequately with the nation's gnawing problems,
such a strategy was insufficient from the outset and without a doubt
it has not succeeded.
However,
the dynamics of the presidential race shifted fundamentally in
Governor Romney's favor on October 3rd
as a consequence of his brilliant debate showing, especially when
coupled with the president's diffident lack of engagement.
But
in that clear victory at the University of Denver danger lurks, real
danger. To assume that the win in Denver and the surge toward
Governor Romney in the polls that it has produced will assure victory
on November 6th
is false. It won't. Because, while Denver stopped the bleeding and
reversed the momentum, it did not close the deal with enough voters
in the Swing States.
Something
more is essential to achieve victory. And that something must be
both grander and more substantive than anything the Romney Campaign
or the Governor himself has articulated thus far.
The
American people, even though they are more polarized and disheartened
than any of us have witnessed in our lifetime, are way ahead of
politicians and the Government in Washington. They no longer believe
in their elected leaders. If they could, they would put all of
Washington into Chapter 11. And that means the ONLY path to victory
for Governor Romney is one that not only demonstrates that he
comprehends the magnitude of the nation's frustration and real peril,
but also that he has a formula that holds out real hope for
fundamental change in America.
That's
right. We're talking about HOPE AND CHANGE. But this time it must
be the real deal, not a political slogan.
Repeating
the tired and true nostrums like “Washington's the problem, the
states are the solution”, or “We must have more defense
spending”, or “I'll reform the tax code, but I won't tell you the
painful part”, won't get Governor Romney across the finish line.
It probably will bamboozle the base, but it won't garner enough
Independents in places like the I-4 Corridor, Northern Virginia,
Merrimack County New Hampshire, Franklin and Hamilton Counties in
Ohio, Columbia County, Wisconsin, Polk County, Iowa, Arapahoe and
Jefferson Counties in Colorado, and Clark County Nevada.
No,
he must say and keep saying from now to Election Day what the
American people already know. America is at a tipping point.
America no longer has the luxury of kicking the can down the road.
We have no choice but to seize the future or relinquish our national
heritage—a heritage which was born in the crucible of war and
suffering and which has been a beacon of freedom and individual
dignity to all of humanity since Valley Forge. We have reached the
point in our national life where either we begin a slow, but
inevitable decline, or we have the resolve and are willing to make
the sacrifices necessary to assure America's rendezvous with destiny.
And
having said that, Governor Romney must then explain to the American
people how together we will restore our self confidence, restore our
economy, and restore the preeminence of America's unique experiment
in self governance, democracy, and individual freedom.
And
in describing that restoration and how it will be accomplished,
Governor Romney must make explicitly clear that it can only be
accomplished on a bipartisan basis. An American Restoration by
definition is one that Americans broadly support. The enactment of
Social Security in 1935 included 97 Republicans in Congress. The
enactment of Medicare in 1965 had the support of 83 Republicans. The
only road forward on the profound issues facing the nation is the
broadly bipartisan road. And to that end Governor Romney must break
new ground. He must be willing to be daring and bold. He must find
a way to tell the American people that he not only understands the
paralysis in Washington, but that he will end it.
Only
a President has the ability to successfully overcome the paralysis
that grips Washington. Only a President has a chance to break the
logjam of hatred and bitterness that has consumed both parties on
Capitol Hill. To do that Governor Romney must explain to the
American people that the paralysis of the Government is a NATIONAL
SECURITY THREAT of the highest order. He must convince the voters
that it is as real and as dangerous as were the Great Depression,
Pearl Harbor, and 9/11.
Governor
Romney must say that preventing our economy from going over the
fiscal cliff can only be accomplished with bipartisan support of the
American people and the Democrats on Capitol Hill. And he must
pledge that he will openly support each and every member of Congress
who will join the effort to restore American greatness. He needs to
say that he understands that his job as president will require him to
forge consensus with the Democrats AND to support those who join him.
Let the magnitude of those last two sentences sink in. Acting on
those two sentences will profoundly change everything in
Washington—for the better. It will create a race to the middle by
members of both parties in the House and the Senate. It will create
the condition necessary for the passage of major legislation on a
bipartisan basis. And it will isolate and make irrelevant the
extremists at both ends of the political spectrum.
Yes,
this is radical. Yes, it is risky. Yes, it will create some angst
in the GOP base. But—it will work, and when it does—the icy grip
of paralysis in Washington will begin to melt. It will begin to melt
because throughout the nation a broad consensus will have developed
that will demand that the bipartisan calculus that President Romney
has begun to forge be nurtured, sustained, and expanded. It's what
the Founding Fathers called Democracy.
But
we're not there yet, are we? What is the substance of what must be
put in place under President Romney's leadership and with bipartisan
support on the Hill? If Governor Romney can answer that question
beginning with the debate at Hofstra on October 16th and then hammer
it home as the centerpiece of the Romney/Ryan Campaign right up to
Election Day, he will win. And even though it's likely the
Democrats will still control the Senate on November 7th,
the seeds of bipartisanship that candidate Romney will have sewn in
the closing days of the Campaign will mean that the days of stalemate
on the Hill will be numbered.
SO,
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
America's
caught in a vice that is destroying our economy—both the private
economy and the public economy. The recent economic meltdown that
took hold, as the Bush Administration was ending, flushed over $14
trillion dollars of America's net worth down the toilet. It has
destroyed consumer confidence, the driver of our national economy.
It has caused American businesses to retain about $2 trillion dollars
on their balance sheets because of their uncertainty with respect to
whether and how the Government in Washington will cope with the
growing economic darkness. It has exploded the national debt to the
point that our ability to meet the demands of our creditors has been
threatened. It has precipitated the first downgrade of America's
credit worthiness in the nation's history. It has produced
intractable and sustained unemployment for 23 million American
workers. The reality of those relentless economic forces, when
coupled with the distrust and hatred between Democrats and
Republicans in Washington, are the jaws of the vice that now has the
nation in its grip.
Governor
Romney has proposed a 5 Point plan to address these problems. His 5
Point program is good as far as it goes. But it doesn't go nearly
far enough. In addition, it lacks the kind of traction that will be
required to energize and galvanize enough American voters to elect
him on November 6th.
Governor
Romney urgently needs to transform it into something much
grander—something much bolder—something that a clear majority of
Americans can understand and support. Let's call it the AMERICAN
ECONOMIC RENNAISANCE, (AER).
What
the AER does is to consolidate Governor Romney's 5 Point program into
a single message that tells the nation that energy independence is
the key that will unshackle our stagnant economy. Achieving energy
independence will simultaneously ignite our moribund economy, create
millions of good paying and sustainable jobs, rebuild the nation's
decaying and obsolete infrastructure, generate a sustained surge in
tax revenue that will wipe out the deficit, while at the same time
provide the funding necessary for essential government programs and
services, and enable the United States to begin to reduce the
national debt substantially.
These
are not promises to be made lightly, especially since on first blush
such promises will appear to be either foolhardy or a lie. Neither is
the case! The beauty and simplicity of something that sounds almost
too good to be true--is that in this case it is true!
Beneath
America lie vast reserves of natural gas and oil. The miracle of
America's rebirth and the fuel for America's Economic Renaissance are
right under our feet. Safely extracting it, and the technology
exists that will enable us to extract it without posing grave risk to
our environment, is what will break the grip of the vice that
threatens our economy, our national security, our freedom, and our
way of life.
The
estimated royalty payments to the Government from these reserves
under public lands are estimated to be $37.5 trillion dollars.
THAT'S TRILLION! That's more than twice the current national debt of
$16 trillion dollars! Do I have your attention now?
The
map of the lower 48 states oil and gas shale plays from the Energy
Information Administration makes evident that about 25 states have
significant reserves of oil and/or gas. The principal oil shale play
is located at the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and
Wyoming, while the largest gas shale play is the Marcellus Formation
covering much of New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio.
In
July 2011 the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S.
Department of Energy reported that the lower 48 states have a total
of 750 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas with more than
half of it located at the Marcellus Formation The total amount of
recoverable natural gas resources when Alaska and offshore sites are
included soars to 4.2 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas according
to the Institute for Energy Research.
That
is enough natural gas to meet the nation's electricity demands for
575 years, enough natural gas to supply homes heated by natural gas
for 857 years, and it's more natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan combined!
Our
reserves of shale oil are equally impressive. The Green River
Formation in the inter-mountain west contains about 3 trillion
barrels of oil. In recent testimony before the House Energy
Subcommittee, the General Accountability Office testified that the
Federal Government was in a unique position to influence the
development of this oil shale because about three-quarters of it was
beneath Federal land. The Rand Corporation has estimated that
30%-60% of the oil shale at Green River is recoverable. That is an
amount equal to the entire world's proven oil reserves!
Assuming
that the 3 trillion barrel estimate is correct and that the price of
oil on the world market is about $100 per barrel, the Federal non-tax
revenue from royalties alone approaches $37.5 trillion dollars. In
addition to the royalty payments more revenue would be generated
through lease options.
A
team of analysts and economists at Citigroup has estimated that
energy independence can be achieved by 2020 and the United States can
become a net exporter of crude oil, refined products, and natural
gas. What we are talking about here is nothing less than OPEC
playing second fiddle to an new petroleum exporting colossus—AMERICAN
PETROLEUM EXPORT (APX). Today there are about 4300 supertankers
plying the world's oceans. Only 59 of them fly the American flag.
Imagine for a moment just the effect on American jobs and the
American economy if we began to build our own fleet of supertankers
to supply world petroleum markets for decades to come. Imagine the
impact on our balance of trade.
All
of the foregoing has huge implications for not just manufacturing
jobs but for good paying jobs writ large. And they will be
sustainable jobs going forward. Studies by Wood Mackenzie, the
American Chemistry Council, the Public Policy Council of New York,
the Pennsylvania State University, the Western Energy Alliance, and
PricewaterhouseCoopers, to name just a few, document job growth in
the millions if these recoverable resources are brought to market.
This
is the promise and the potential of the American Economic
Renaissance. The AER will do for America in the 21st
century what the Industrial Revolution did for the nation in the 20th
century. We're talking about something that will make efforts like
the Marshall Plan after World War II and President Kennedy's proposal
to send a man to the moon and return him safely to earth look
microscopic by comparison.
Here's
an example, one of many, that illuminates how the royalty payments
could be put to work to jump start the moribund American economy and
create millions of good paying and sustainable jobs. The most recent
report card of the American Society of Civil Engineers gives the
nation's crumbling infrastructure an overall all grade of D. More
specifically, they give aviation a D, dams a D, rail a C-, schools a
D, the national power grid a D+, and navigable waterways a D-.
Fixing all of this the Society estimates would cost $2.2 trillion
dollars. Given all the red ink in the Federal Budget and a national
debt of more than $16 trillion dollars, a project of this magnitude
is unthinkable. It's completely out of reach. But with access to a
stream of royalty payments that is reliably estimated to be more than
$30 trillion dollars such a project with all the jobs it would create
is not only possible, it's a sure bet.
But
an enterprise this big, this complex, this long lasting raises
related questions of consequential magnitude. Chief among them are
how does the nation organize such an enormous effort so that it
functions well and is agile enough to changing circumstances over
many years? And how does the nation wisely spend the enormity of the
revenues the AER will generate for decades to come?
Not
only are the answers to these question important in their own right,
they also are crucially related to the dynamics of the Presidential
election.
First
the the question of organization. The answer begins with two things
NOT to do. Don't had this job over to the oil and gas industry. If
that happens, they will become vastly wealthier and little else of
benefit will occur. Well, if the job shouldn't be handed off to the
private sector, how about we give it to the Federal Government?
Perish the thought. If the responsibility and authority for a
program like this were handed off to the bureaucrats in the Puzzle
Palaces that line the Potomac nothing would ever happen but committee
meetings and regulation writing.
The
answer to this dilemma hides in plain sight in our nation's
development over the past 236 years. America has been blessed with
extraordinary leaders at times of great challenge and change. For
example, our first Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, saw
the necessity for a strong, but limited national government. To that
end he established a budget, a tax system and a funded debt.
President Lincoln not only successfully prosecuted the Civil War he
also managed the transition of America from an agrarian society to an
industrial one. Think Homestead Act, that opened the West, the
Pacific Railway Acts that connected the east to the west by rail,
thereby laying the basis for a truly national economy. Teddy
Roosevelt was the architect who brought into being the rules that
enabled businesses to thrive as well as the necessity for transparent
rules and regulations designed to prevent abuses and hold businesses
accountable
The
organizational structure to manage the AER does not yet exist. It
will of necessity have to be an amalgam of Government and the private
sector where each participates and neither can run roughshod over the
other.
And
what about how to spend all that money the AER will generate. Again
what not to do is the easy part of the answer. Don't just pay off
the national debt. Don't propose to cut taxes, either individual or
corporate. Don't turn it over to the Federal bureaucrats or the
state bureaucrats for that matter.
No,
the smarter, wiser course is to use most of that revenue to move
America from the end of the industrial society fully into the
emerging global economy where we must compete successfully or perish.
All
of this, of course, will need to be worked out. Working it out will
be messy, complicated, and intensely controversial. That's to be
expected and it's OK. It's the American Way. .
CONCLUSION
If
Governor Romney unleashes this strategy at Hofstra on October 16th,
follows it with speeches on the AER in southeastern Ohio, Colorado,
and Pennsylvania immediately thereafter, and uses it again in the
final debate, he will win this election. The speech in Pennsylvania
may well put the Keystone state in play, and the relevance of all of
the above to the final debate is because our failing economy, growing
debt, and inevitable decline is a NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT.
By
doing all of this Governor Romney will achieve a governing mandate on
November 6th.
And he will have laid the groundwork for breaking the logjam on
Capitol Hill that will enable him to govern effectively, regardless
of Democratic control of the Senate.
This
strategy will utterly surprise President Obama, throw him on the
defensive, and put his Campaign in an unrecoverable position. He
can't run on his record. The day he took office most Americans
believed that the country was headed in the wrong direction and that
reality has not changed for the better in any appreciable way during
his four years in office. Moreover, he has not articulated a plan of
action for his second term. Governor Romney's AER initiative will
expose the fact that President Obama has no countervailing
alternative to offer the American people. Once that becomes clear in
the minds of Independent voters in the Swing States, the President
will lose.
Governor
Romney should close his next debate with the President by saying,
“The American people are hurting, Mr. President. They know the
nation is heading in the wrong direction for them and for their
children. Millions of our citizens can't find a job. Millions more
have jobs that do not challenge them or put enough bread on the
table. You've had four years to fix this problem and you have
failed. I know how to put America back to work. And I have just
described it in a way that the American people can understand and
support. On January 25th,
2010, Mr. President, you told Diane Sawyer on ABC World News, 'I'd
rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term
president.' I believe the American people will and should hold you
to your own standard on November 6th.”
That
concludes the proposal that I sent to Governor Romney.
THE
SHADOW'S PREDICTIONS:
THE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
The
GOP currently controls the House 241-191. There are three vacancies.
In order to take control of the chamber the Democrats need to gain
about 25 seats. It's not going to happen.
Unlike
the House election of 2006, 2008, and 2010, Tuesday's election will
not be a Wave Election in which one party decimates the other. The
ten-year census in 2010 triggered the redrawing of congressional
lines in most states. Both parties adopted the same defensive
redistricting strategy. Their principal objective was to reconfigure
districts wherever possible to shore up incumbents who might
otherwise be vulnerable to defeat this year. Having done that both
parties then attempted to invade the turf of the other. That process
was particularly helpful to the Democrats in in Illinois and
California, and it has advantaged the Republicans here in North
Carolina.
And
that brings us to the race that folks here in the mountains care most
about, the 11th
district that Democrat Heath Shuler has represented since 2007. By
gaining control of the state legislature in 2010 for the first time
in over a century, the GOP was in a position to recast congressional
district lines to their advantage. And that is exactly what they
did. In so doing they put four incumbent Democrats at risk,
including Heath Shuler. And that is why he chose not to seek
reelection in a district that no longer includes the Democratic
stronghold of Asheville.
The
battle here in the 11th
pits Shuler's former Chief of Staff, Hayden Rogers, against
Republican Mark Meadows. Meadows, a conservative who has brilliantly
avoided being branded as a mouthpiece for the Tea Party will win
Tuesday. It will not be close. Meadows wins going away.
The
much more interesting question will be whether Meadows will be able
to maintain his independence once he becomes a member of the Tea
Party dominated Republican Caucus in the House. If he can
successfully walk that tightrope, he likely will be this district's
Congressman for as long as he wishes. If he can't, he won't be
around long enough to get much accomplished.
When
the dust settles tomorrow night the Republicans will have lost a
handful of seats, but will still retain their majority in the House
by a margin of 235-200.
THE
SENATE
While
the rise of the Tea Party in 2010 enabled the Republicans to take
control of the House, its effect on the Senate has been a disaster.
Prior to the 2010 election the Democrats controlled the Senate 59-41.
After the Republican Wave Election in 2010 the GOP had gained 6
Senate seats and the Democrats margin of control had been reduced to
53-47. But that six seat gain obscures what really happened. If
fact the GOP had an excellent opportunity to pick up four additional
Senate seats in 2010 which it did not because its nominees were so
weak they never had a chance to win. All of these nominees in
Delaware, West Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada were Tea Party zealots
who turned out to be an embarrassment to themselves, the Republican
Party, and the voters in their states. Had the GOP captured those
four seats the Republicans would have taken control of the Senate in
2010. Remember these four lost seats as we begin our analysis of the
Senate election tomorrow.
The
Democrats control the Senate 53-47 headed into tomorrow's election.
33 seats are up in this cycle—23 controlled by the Democrats and 10
controlled by the GOP. After the votes are counted, the Democrat's
margin will narrow to 51-49.
And
just like the Tea Party needlessly sacrificed four senate seats in
2010 they will be responsible for flushing three more seats down the
toilet in this election.
In
the Pine Tree state of Maine longtime moderate Republican Olympia
Snowe became so disheartened with the Tea Party and the Left Wing
radicals she did not seek reelection. She would have been a shoo-in
for reelection had she run. That seat will turn over with election
of Independent, Angus King, who will caucus with the Democrats.
In
the Show-Me state of Missouri the GOP nominee, Congressman Todd Akin,
squares off against Senator Claire McCaskill. Akin is a fierce Tea
Party stalwart. Like Majority Leader, Harry Reid two years ago,
McCaskill was considered to be the most vulnerable Democrat in this
year's cycle. The seat was considered to be a certain Republican
pick-up. Then Akin opened his mouth and said that “legitimate
rape” rarely leads to pregnancies and forces female bodies to shut
down. The GOP was forced to disown Akin, and he will lose.
In
the Hoosier state of Indiana Richard Mourdock, a Tea Party activist
defeated longtime moderate Senator Richard Lugar in the Republican
primary election. Mourdock is opposed by Democratic Congressman, Joe
Donnelly. Indiana is a Republican state and Governor Romney will win
it handily. There was every good reason to expect that Mourdock
would also win keeping the seat safely in the Republican column. But
in a debate with Donnelly last month he stated, ”I came to realize
that life is a gift of God. And I think that even when life begins
in that horrible situation of rape that it is something that God
intended to happen”. Mourdock loses tonight, and another
Republican seat is needlessly lost.
In
Connecticut Independent-Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman is retiring.
The contest is between Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy and Linda
McMahon, the Chief Executive of World Wrestling Entertainment. She
was the Republican nominee for another open Senate seat in
Connecticut two years ago and she lost badly. This time she has run
a more formidable campaign, and, like two years ago, she has poured
millions of dollars of her own personal wealth into the campaign.
But in a Smack Down in the Nutmeg State Linda McMahon is pinned
again. Murphy wins.
In
an open seat in Virginia former Governor and Chairman of the
Democratic National Committee, Tim Kaine is opposed by former
Republican Governor and Senator, George Allen. Allen was defeated
in a bid to seek reelection to the Senate in 2006 when he twice
unwisely referred to an Indian-American who was filming an Allen
Campaign event in Breaks, Virginia as a “Macaca”. Macaca is a
pejorative epithet and uttering it helped to defeat Allen's bid for
reelection in 2006, destroyed his Presidential ambitions in 2008, and
will contribute to his defeat tomorrow. Tim Kaine wins in the Old
Dominion.
In
Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin is opposed by former
Governor Tommy Thompson in a bid to take the open seat created by the
retirement of Democratic Senator Herb Kohl. Baldwin is one of the
most liberal members of the House and was the first openly lesbian
person elected to the Wisconsin Assembly. The race has been too
close to call for months. The Shadow predicts that Thompson will win
the Badger State in a squeaker.
The
retirement of Democrat Kent Conrad creates another open seat battle
in the Peace Garden State of North Dakota, and this one is going to
be close—real close. Former state attorney general, Heidi Heitkamp
is the Democrat and she is opposed by Republican Congressman Rick
Berg. Mitt Romney will carry North Dakota handily. Although
Heitkamp has proved to be a skilled, likable, and formidable
campaigner, Berg wins this race.
In
Montana first term Democratic Senator Jon Tester seeks reelection.
He is opposed by Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg. Two strong
and opposing political philosophies are alive and well in Montana.
The base of the Treasure State's Democratic tradition is rooted in
mining and labor unions. The Republican base is rooted in fierce
individualism and inherent distrust of government—especially the
Federal Government. Tester and Rehberg are each strong candidates
and this campaign has been close from the git go. It has been
bitterly negative with both sides spending huge amounts of cash on
negative advertising. But when all is said and done Senator Tester
will be defeated by the rancher who, when he's not voting in
Congress, raises cashmere goats.
Arizona
features another open seat contest brought about by the retirement of
Republican Senator John Kyl. Republican Congressman Jeff Flake is
opposed by former United States Surgeon General, Richard Carmona, the
Democrat. Carmona is a physician, was Surgeon General in the
Administration of Bush 43, was raised in Harlem, is of Puerto Rican
descent, and was a member of the U.S. Army Special Forces.
Mitt
Romney will carry the reliably Republican Grand Canyon State. But
Carmona is a formidable candidate and will make it close. But the
GOP should be able to hold this seat.
In
the Silver State of Nevada Republican Dean Heller was appointed to
the Senate after the forced departure of disgraced Senator John
Ensign. Now Heller seeks election. He is opposed by Democratic
Congresswoman Shelley Berkley whose district includes “The Strip”
in Las Vegas. Berkley is strongly supported by Senate Majority
leader, Harry Reid, and there is no doubt that Harry Reid will use
his formidable get out the vote machine in Clark County (Las Vegas)
for both President Obama and Berkley. But unlike two years ago when
that machine put Reid back into the Senate, it won't get the job done
for Berkley. Heller wins.
In
the Bay State Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, seeks reelection.
He is opposed by Democrat, Elizabeth Warren, a former Obama adviser
and Harvard professor.. Brown is likable, has been hard working, and
is something of a rarity. He's a moderate Republican. Warren is a
left wing ideologue. On a level playing field Warren's no match for
Brown. But Massachusetts is no level playing field. It's
overwhelmingly Democratic and President Obama will carry it
decisively. However, this race is The Shadow's upset special. Even
though Warren leads in all the polls, I predict Brown will be
reelected.
And
there you have it. When all is said and done the Democrats will
control the Senate by a margin of 51-49. Of course, you can figure
out how different it would have been for the Republicans were it not
for the Tea Party's penchant for self inflicted destruction. Had the
Tea Party not flushed those seven seats down the toilet, the
Republicans would control the Senate with a 56 vote majority.
THE
PRESIDENCY
There
is no doubt that Barack Obama inherited a nation in desperate
straits. It was not trouble of his making. He was swept into office
on a brilliantly run campaign that promised HOPE AND CHANGE. That is
exactly what the American people wanted, voted for, and expected.
Now with perfect hindsight, it's evident that President Obama did not
deliver on his promise.
One
only needs to look at the enactment of three bills that indelibly
bear the signature of his first term—the Stimulus, Obamacare, and
Financial Reform. Each of them is deeply flawed and each was enacted
in a way that took the definition hyper partisanship to a level never
previously seen in Washington. Within months of taking office HOPE
AND CHANGE degenerated into MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY.
More
damaging to the president is that the Stimulus did not come close to
jump starting an economy in free fall, and Obamacare polarized the
nation. Together they spawned the rise of the Tea Party. And
Financial Reform does not address the problem of too big to fail for
the Wall Street banks.
Finally
and unbelievably, the president has not laid out a set of specific
proposals going forward that would serve as a compelling basis for
his reelection and second term in office. He appears not to have
realized that the Divine Right of Kings doesn't play well in America.
Whether such a stupendous blunder arises out of arrogance or
incompetence doesn't really matter. What does matter is that Barack
Obama's incredible luck, dating all the way back to his election to
the State Legislature in Illinois, is going to run out tonight.
There
are 538 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win. Unfortunately, there
has never been any doubt with respect to how most states will cast
their vote for President. Eighteen states and the District of
Columbia are solid Blue. That gives the President 237 electoral
votes. Twenty-three states are solid Red. That gives Governor
Romney 191 electoral votes. There are nine battleground states with
110 electoral votes. They are: FL(29), NC(15), VA(13), NH(4),
OH(18), WI(10), IA(6), CO(9), and NV(6).
That
so many states are uncompetitive is a reflection of the polarizing
racial and gender divide that has crippled the Federal Government.
The Blues are overwhelmingly made up of single or divorced white
women, individuals possessing high levels of education and income,
African-Americans, and Latinos. The Reds are overwhelmingly made up
of white men, married white women, evangelical Christians, and
individual without a college education. In Washington their elected
representatives hate one another.
Thus,
almost the entire presidential campaign has been waged in the nine
battleground states. Among the nine, Ohio is the most significant.
Ohio has voted with the winner in every presidential election since
1944, except in 1960. No Republican has ever won the White House
without carrying Ohio. That makes Ohio the 800 pound gorilla for any
Republican seeking the presidency. To win tomorrow's election
Governor Romney must win Ohio. And win it he will.
Governor
Romney will do well enough in suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, and
Cleveland to slightly offset Obama's huge margins in the cores of
those cities. In addition, Romney will roll up very large numbers in
southeastern Ohio where most of the state's evangelical Christians
reside and where coal is, and natural gas soon will be, king.
Governor
Romney will also win at least five of the remaining battleground
states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and
Colorado. The president will likely win the remaining three
battleground states: Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada.
Governor
Romney will claim the White House with 279 electoral votes.
President Obama will win 259 electoral votes. The popular vote will
be very close—Romney 50.4%, Obama 48.7%.
But
know this, if Romney wins, America will not be out of the woods. A
Tea Party controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate is a
proven recipe for catastrophe. Whether President Romney can bring a
recalcitrant and rebellious Congress to heel remains to be seen. It
will require a level of imagination, boldness of ideas, and guts that
none of us has yet seen him demonstrate.
Now,
if The Shadow is wrong and we end up with another four years of
Barack Obama, the nation will have saddled itself with a man whose
ability to act the role of the President is remarkable. It has been
a performance worthy of an Oscar. But acting like a President versus
being an effective President at a time of national crisis are not the
same. Obama and his campaign assumed you wouldn't notice the
difference.
WHO
LOST TOMORROW'S ELECTION?
We
began with the question of who won tomorrow's election. Let's end
with who lost it. I think that's the really important question. If
the President is reelected tomorrow, and you think that Mitt Romney
lost the election, you're wrong. If Governor Romney wins tomorrow
night, and you think the President lost the election, you're wrong.
In
fact, it probably won't make any difference which of them wins
tomorrow night. Let me just repeat that for emphasis. It probably
won't make any difference whether President Obama or Governor Romney
wins tomorrow night. Why? Because in either case America loses!
Now
I know that's counter intuitive. I know that most of you believe
strongly that it's vital that one of these two men win and the other
lose. And there is no doubt in my mind or yours that the vast
majority of voters believe that America will either move forward or
backward depending on whether the President or Governor Romney takes
the oath of office next January 20th.
I'm
here to tell you that's not the case. America's been stuck in a rut
for almost two decades. At a minimum it dates from 1995 when Newt
Gingrich engineered the Republican takeover of the House which ended
40 years of House Republicans wandering in the wilderness. A couple
of year later the Monica Lewinsky affair hit the front pages and that
emasculated President Clinton. Speaker Gingrich smelled blood, the
impeachment process began, and deadlock overran Washington.
President
Bush and his Republican majorities on Capitol Hill wrongly took us
into war in Iraq, exploded the deficit and the debt, and never saw
the coming economic implosion on the horizon.
President
Obama and his Democratic majorities on the Hill promised Hope and
Change and didn't deliver on the promise. Instead the adopted a take
it or leave it approach on both Obamacare and the Stimulus
legislation. That approach tore the country in half. And that gave
rise to the Tea Party which has been on a scorched earth policy since
taking over the House two years ago.
During
this period America's has been adrift. We teeter on the edge of
national decline. None of the major problems the nation faces is
being addressed. Tomorrow's election, no matter who wins, almost
certainly will not change this calculus of deadlock and drift.
It's
not their fault. It's our fault. The American people are too
selfish, too partisan, and too stupid. It's a deserved fate of our
own making. It's an indictment of democracy and self government.
Thank
you.
