Expect GOP to maintain House control

Today's column forecasts the election for the House of Representatives, and it previews Tuesday's column that will predict the Senate and the presidency.

The GOP currently controls the House, 241-191. There are three vacancies. In order to take control of the chamber, the Democrats need to gain about 25 seats Tuesday. It's not going to happen.

Unlike the House elections in 2006, 2008 and 2010, Tuesday's election will not be a wave election in which one party decimates the other. The 10-year census in 2010 triggered the redrawing of congressional district lines in most states. Both parties adopted the same defensive redistricting strategy. Their principal objective was to reconfigure districts wherever possible to shore up incumbents who might otherwise be vulnerable to defeat this year. Having done that, both parties then attempted to invade the turf of the other. That process was particularly helpful to the Democrats in Illinois and California, and it has worked to the Republicans' advantage here in North Carolina.

And that brings us to the race that folks here in the mountains care most about, the 11th Congressional District that Democrat Heath Shuler has represented since 2007. By gaining control of the state legislature in 2010 for the first time in more than a century, Republicans were in a position to recast congressional district lines to their advantage. And that is exactly what they did. In so doing, they put four incumbent Democrats at risk, including Shuler. And that's why he chose not to seek re-election in a district that no longer includes the Democratic stronghold of Asheville.

The battle here in the 11th District pits Shuler's former chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, against Republican Mark Meadows. Meadows, a conservative who has brilliantly avoided being branded as a mouthpiece for the tea party, will win Tuesday. It will not be close. Meadows wins going away.

The much more interesting question will be whether Meadows will be able to maintain his independence once he becomes a member of the tea party-dominated Republican caucus in the House. If he can successfully walk that tightrope, he likely will be this district's congressman for as long as he wishes. If he can't, he won't be around long enough to get much accomplished.

When the dust settles, the Republicans will lose a handful of seats but still retain their majority by a margin of 235-200.

The battles for the Senate and the White House are a completely different kettle of fish. The outcome for both is opaque. The Democrats currently control the Senate 53-47. Thirty-three seats are up this year, 23 controlled by the Democrats and 10 by the GOP. Almost a dozen of those 33 seats are within the margin of error. Tuesday's column will sort them out.

It's hard to defeat a sitting president. Since the beginning of the modern era of American politics with the election of Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, it's only happened three times: Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992.

On first blush, it would appear that Barack Obama's days in the White House are numbered. He promised America he would break the gridlock in Washington. With control of all of the levers of power during his first two years in office, he didn't come close.

The economy remains deeply troubled. Joblessness remains high. The federal government is awash in red ink. The threat of recession is real. His signature accomplishments, Obamacare and the stimulus, divided the nation. That division gave birth to the tea party radicals who took control of the House in 2010.

The inconvenient truth is that Obama was not adequately prepared to be president in 2008. But after eight years of George W. Bush and GOP excesses on Capitol Hill, his election was assured. Candidate Obama never got vetted in a way that would have revealed his inadequacies. Most of the media, academe, Hollywood and the power centers from midtown Manhattan to the elite salons in Georgetown simply adopted the missionary position for Obama. They're yet to get off their backs. He seeks re-election having not laid out an agenda.

But the president's ace in the hole is Mitt Romney. For months during the Republican primaries, Romney performed flip-flopping somersaults in order to appease the right-wing zealots in the GOP. For the past several months, he's been somersaulting back to the center in a desperate effort to attract independent voters. The net effect is that no one really knows who he is or what he'd do, if elected.

Both men face the same intractable problem — a totally polarized electorate, one polarized by gender and race. White men will vote overwhelmingly for Romney. Single or divorced white women will overwhelmingly support the president. White voters in general will vote for Romney. African-Americans and Hispanics will vote for the president, both in huge numbers. This racial and gender divide is what has paralyzed Washington. Tuesday's election, no matter who wins, will make it worse.

But say you can't wait till Tuesday to know who wins. Use the Washington Redskin rule. It's worked in every election but one since 1936. If the Redskins win their last home game before the election (today versus the Carolina Panthers), the incumbent (Obama) wins. If the Skins lose, the challenger (Romney) wins. Easy, no?

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