BLUE RIDGE LECTURE—2012, WHO WON TOMORROW'S ELECTION

INTRODUCTION

Thank you and I'm very glad to be back. Let me tell you how I'm planning to organize our time this afternoon. First of all I want you to know that I'm planning to leave more time than I have in past lectures for your questions. Given as close as the race for the White House appears to be, I want you to have ample time to raise your questions about that or any other matter you wish.

I'm going to begin by telling you about a proposal that I had the opportunity to get into the hands of the Romney Campaign shortly after he and his debate coach, Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, were in Asheville about three weeks ago.

Then I plan to reveal The Shadows predictions for the House, Senate, and the White House. As many of you know, the predictions for the House were published in my T-N column yesterday, and the predictions for the Senate and the Presidency will be published tomorrow.

Finally, before we get to your questions, I plan to talk a bit about who lost tomorrow's election.

Now before I outline this proposal that I sent to Governor Romney let's deal with the bias sending such a proposal implies—that I'm a Republican. I'm not a Republican or a Democrat, though in past incarnations I've been both. I'm registered as Unaffiliated. And I suppose that many of you know that T-N's op-ed columnist, Mike Tower, and I co-founded CAPAU—Citizens Against Politics As Usual-- about a year ago. CAPAU calls for the defeat of all Incumbents in Washington, and Barack Obama is an incumbent. If you have questions about our aversion to all incumbents, please raise them in the Q&A session.

In fact one of the things that I enjoy the most about reactions to my columns in the Times-News are those that accuse me of being a closet Democrat or a closet Republican. The discerning reader knows that I turn my heavy artillery on wingnuts of both the Left and the Right.

PROPOSAL TO ROMNEY CAMPAIGN

So, here's what I sent to Governor Romney in mid-October:

“Let's suppose the Romney Campaign believed that it would prevail on November 6^th with a strategy the essence of which assaulted the glaring inadequacies of the Obama Administration's stewardship over the past four years. While there is no doubt that the Obama Administration has failed to deal adequately with the nation's gnawing problems, such a strategy was insufficient from the outset and without a doubt it has not succeeded.

However, the dynamics of the presidential race shifted fundamentally in Governor Romney's favor on October 3^rd as a consequence of his brilliant debate showing, especially when coupled with the president's diffident lack of engagement.

But in that clear victory at the University of Denver danger lurks, real danger. To assume that the win in Denver and the surge toward Governor Romney in the polls that it has produced will assure victory on November 6^th is false. It won't. Because, while Denver stopped the bleeding and reversed the momentum, it did not close the deal with enough voters in the Swing States.

Something more is essential to achieve victory. And that something must be both grander and more substantive than anything the Romney Campaign or the Governor himself has articulated thus far.

The American people, even though they are more polarized and disheartened than any of us have witnessed in our lifetime, are way ahead of politicians and the Government in Washington. They no longer believe in their elected leaders. If they could, they would put all of Washington into Chapter 11. And that means the ONLY path to victory for Governor Romney is one that not only demonstrates that he comprehends the magnitude of the nation's frustration and real peril, but also that he has a formula that holds out real hope for fundamental change in America.

That's right. We're talking about HOPE AND CHANGE. But this time it must be the real deal, not a political slogan.

Repeating the tired and true nostrums like “Washington's the problem, the states are the solution”, or “We must have more defense spending”, or “I'll reform the tax code, but I won't tell you the painful part”, won't get Governor Romney across the finish line. It probably will bamboozle the base, but it won't garner enough Independents in places like the I-4 Corridor, Northern Virginia, Merrimack County New Hampshire, Franklin and Hamilton Counties in Ohio, Columbia County, Wisconsin, Polk County, Iowa, Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties in Colorado, and Clark County Nevada.

No, he must say and keep saying from now to Election Day what the American people already know. America is at a tipping point. America no longer has the luxury of kicking the can down the road. We have no choice but to seize the future or relinquish our national heritage—a heritage which was born in the crucible of war and suffering and which has been a beacon of freedom and individual dignity to all of humanity since Valley Forge. We have reached the point in our national life where either we begin a slow, but inevitable decline, or we have the resolve and are willing to make the sacrifices necessary to assure America's rendezvous with destiny.

And having said that, Governor Romney must then explain to the American people how together we will restore our self confidence, restore our economy, and restore the preeminence of America's unique experiment in self governance, democracy, and individual freedom.

And in describing that restoration and how it will be accomplished, Governor Romney must make explicitly clear that it can only be accomplished on a bipartisan basis. An American Restoration by definition is one that Americans broadly support. The enactment of Social Security in 1935 included 97 Republicans in Congress. The enactment of Medicare in 1965 had the support of 83 Republicans. The only road forward on the profound issues facing the nation is the broadly bipartisan road. And to that end Governor Romney must break new ground. He must be willing to be daring and bold. He must find a way to tell the American people that he not only understands the paralysis in Washington, but that he will end it.

Only a President has the ability to successfully overcome the paralysis that grips Washington. Only a President has a chance to break the logjam of hatred and bitterness that has consumed both parties on Capitol Hill. To do that Governor Romney must explain to the American people that the paralysis of the Government is a NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT of the highest order. He must convince the voters that it is as real and as dangerous as were the Great Depression, Pearl Harbor, and 9/11.

Governor Romney must say that preventing our economy from going over the fiscal cliff can only be accomplished with bipartisan support of the American people and the Democrats on Capitol Hill. And he must pledge that he will openly support each and every member of Congress who will join the effort to restore American greatness. He needs to say that he understands that his job as president will require him to forge consensus with the Democrats AND to support those who join him. Let the magnitude of those last two sentences sink in. Acting on those two sentences will profoundly change everything in Washington—for the better. It will create a race to the middle by members of both parties in the House and the Senate. It will create the condition necessary for the passage of major legislation on a bipartisan basis. And it will isolate and make irrelevant the extremists at both ends of the political spectrum.

Yes, this is radical. Yes, it is risky. Yes, it will create some angst in the GOP base. But—it will work, and when it does—the icy grip of paralysis in Washington will begin to melt. It will begin to melt because throughout the nation a broad consensus will have developed that will demand that the bipartisan calculus that President Romney has begun to forge be nurtured, sustained, and expanded. It's what the Founding Fathers called Democracy.

But we're not there yet, are we? What is the substance of what must be put in place under President Romney's leadership and with bipartisan support on the Hill? If Governor Romney can answer that question beginning with the debate at Hofstra on October 16th and then hammer it home as the centerpiece of the Romney/Ryan Campaign right up to Election Day, he will win. And even though it's likely the Democrats will still control the Senate on November 7^th, the seeds of bipartisanship that candidate Romney will have sewn in the closing days of the Campaign will mean that the days of stalemate on the Hill will be numbered.

SO, WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

America's caught in a vice that is destroying our economy—both the private economy and the public economy. The recent economic meltdown that took hold, as the Bush Administration was ending, flushed over $14 trillion dollars of America's net worth down the toilet. It has destroyed consumer confidence, the driver of our national economy. It has caused American businesses to retain about $2 trillion dollars on their balance sheets because of their uncertainty with respect to whether and how the Government in Washington will cope with the growing economic darkness. It has exploded the national debt to the point that our ability to meet the demands of our creditors has been threatened. It has precipitated the first downgrade of America's credit worthiness in the nation's history. It has produced intractable and sustained unemployment for 23 million American workers. The reality of those relentless economic forces, when coupled with the distrust and hatred between Democrats and Republicans in Washington, are the jaws of the vice that now has the nation in its grip.

Governor Romney has proposed a 5 Point plan to address these problems. His 5 Point program is good as far as it goes. But it doesn't go nearly far enough. In addition, it lacks the kind of traction that will be required to energize and galvanize enough American voters to elect him on November 6^th.

Governor Romney urgently needs to transform it into something much grander—something much bolder—something that a clear majority of Americans can understand and support. Let's call it the AMERICAN ECONOMIC RENNAISANCE, (AER).

What the AER does is to consolidate Governor Romney's 5 Point program into a single message that tells the nation that energy independence is the key that will unshackle our stagnant economy. Achieving energy independence will simultaneously ignite our moribund economy, create millions of good paying and sustainable jobs, rebuild the nation's decaying and obsolete infrastructure, generate a sustained surge in tax revenue that will wipe out the deficit, while at the same time provide the funding necessary for essential government programs and services, and enable the United States to begin to reduce the national debt substantially.

These are not promises to be made lightly, especially since on first blush such promises will appear to be either foolhardy or a lie. Neither is the case! The beauty and simplicity of something that sounds almost too good to be true--is that in this case it is true!

Beneath America lie vast reserves of natural gas and oil. The miracle of America's rebirth and the fuel for America's Economic Renaissance are right under our feet. Safely extracting it, and the technology exists that will enable us to extract it without posing grave risk to our environment, is what will break the grip of the vice that threatens our economy, our national security, our freedom, and our way of life.

The estimated royalty payments to the Government from these reserves under public lands are estimated to be $37.5 trillion dollars. THAT'S TRILLION! That's more than twice the current national debt of $16 trillion dollars! Do I have your attention now?

The map of the lower 48 states oil and gas shale plays from the Energy Information Administration makes evident that about 25 states have significant reserves of oil and/or gas. The principal oil shale play is located at the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, while the largest gas shale play is the Marcellus Formation covering much of New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio.

In July 2011 the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy reported that the lower 48 states have a total of 750 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas with more than half of it located at the Marcellus Formation The total amount of recoverable natural gas resources when Alaska and offshore sites are included soars to 4.2 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas according to the Institute for Energy Research.

That is enough natural gas to meet the nation's electricity demands for 575 years, enough natural gas to supply homes heated by natural gas for 857 years, and it's more natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan combined!

Our reserves of shale oil are equally impressive. The Green River Formation in the inter-mountain west contains about 3 trillion barrels of oil. In recent testimony before the House Energy Subcommittee, the General Accountability Office testified that the Federal Government was in a unique position to influence the development of this oil shale because about three-quarters of it was beneath Federal land. The Rand Corporation has estimated that 30%-60% of the oil shale at Green River is recoverable. That is an amount equal to the entire world's proven oil reserves!

Assuming that the 3 trillion barrel estimate is correct and that the price of oil on the world market is about $100 per barrel, the Federal non-tax revenue from royalties alone approaches $37.5 trillion dollars. In addition to the royalty payments more revenue would be generated through lease options.

A team of analysts and economists at Citigroup has estimated that energy independence can be achieved by 2020 and the United States can become a net exporter of crude oil, refined products, and natural gas. What we are talking about here is nothing less than OPEC playing second fiddle to an new petroleum exporting colossus—AMERICAN PETROLEUM EXPORT (APX). Today there are about 4300 supertankers plying the world's oceans. Only 59 of them fly the American flag. Imagine for a moment just the effect on American jobs and the American economy if we began to build our own fleet of supertankers to supply world petroleum markets for decades to come. Imagine the impact on our balance of trade.

All of the foregoing has huge implications for not just manufacturing jobs but for good paying jobs writ large. And they will be sustainable jobs going forward. Studies by Wood Mackenzie, the American Chemistry Council, the Public Policy Council of New York, the Pennsylvania State University, the Western Energy Alliance, and PricewaterhouseCoopers, to name just a few, document job growth in the millions if these recoverable resources are brought to market.

This is the promise and the potential of the American Economic Renaissance. The AER will do for America in the 21^st century what the Industrial Revolution did for the nation in the 20^th century. We're talking about something that will make efforts like the Marshall Plan after World War II and President Kennedy's proposal to send a man to the moon and return him safely to earth look microscopic by comparison.

Here's an example, one of many, that illuminates how the royalty payments could be put to work to jump start the moribund American economy and create millions of good paying and sustainable jobs. The most recent report card of the American Society of Civil Engineers gives the nation's crumbling infrastructure an overall all grade of D. More specifically, they give aviation a D, dams a D, rail a C-, schools a D, the national power grid a D+, and navigable waterways a D-. Fixing all of this the Society estimates would cost $2.2 trillion dollars. Given all the red ink in the Federal Budget and a national debt of more than $16 trillion dollars, a project of this magnitude is unthinkable. It's completely out of reach. But with access to a stream of royalty payments that is reliably estimated to be more than $30 trillion dollars such a project with all the jobs it would create is not only possible, it's a sure bet.

But an enterprise this big, this complex, this long lasting raises related questions of consequential magnitude. Chief among them are how does the nation organize such an enormous effort so that it functions well and is agile enough to changing circumstances over many years? And how does the nation wisely spend the enormity of the revenues the AER will generate for decades to come?

Not only are the answers to these question important in their own right, they also are crucially related to the dynamics of the Presidential election.

First the the question of organization. The answer begins with two things NOT to do. Don't had this job over to the oil and gas industry. If that happens, they will become vastly wealthier and little else of benefit will occur. Well, if the job shouldn't be handed off to the private sector, how about we give it to the Federal Government? Perish the thought. If the responsibility and authority for a program like this were handed off to the bureaucrats in the Puzzle Palaces that line the Potomac nothing would ever happen but committee meetings and regulation writing.

The answer to this dilemma hides in plain sight in our nation's development over the past 236 years. America has been blessed with extraordinary leaders at times of great challenge and change. For example, our first Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, saw the necessity for a strong, but limited national government. To that end he established a budget, a tax system and a funded debt. President Lincoln not only successfully prosecuted the Civil War he also managed the transition of America from an agrarian society to an industrial one. Think Homestead Act, that opened the West, the Pacific Railway Acts that connected the east to the west by rail, thereby laying the basis for a truly national economy. Teddy Roosevelt was the architect who brought into being the rules that enabled businesses to thrive as well as the necessity for transparent rules and regulations designed to prevent abuses and hold businesses accountable

The organizational structure to manage the AER does not yet exist. It will of necessity have to be an amalgam of Government and the private sector where each participates and neither can run roughshod over the other.

And what about how to spend all that money the AER will generate. Again what not to do is the easy part of the answer. Don't just pay off the national debt. Don't propose to cut taxes, either individual or corporate. Don't turn it over to the Federal bureaucrats or the state bureaucrats for that matter.

No, the smarter, wiser course is to use most of that revenue to move America from the end of the industrial society fully into the emerging global economy where we must compete successfully or perish.

All of this, of course, will need to be worked out. Working it out will be messy, complicated, and intensely controversial. That's to be expected and it's OK. It's the American Way. .

CONCLUSION

If Governor Romney unleashes this strategy at Hofstra on October 16^th, follows it with speeches on the AER in southeastern Ohio, Colorado, and Pennsylvania immediately thereafter, and uses it again in the final debate, he will win this election. The speech in Pennsylvania may well put the Keystone state in play, and the relevance of all of the above to the final debate is because our failing economy, growing debt, and inevitable decline is a NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT.

By doing all of this Governor Romney will achieve a governing mandate on November 6^th. And he will have laid the groundwork for breaking the logjam on Capitol Hill that will enable him to govern effectively, regardless of Democratic control of the Senate.

This strategy will utterly surprise President Obama, throw him on the defensive, and put his Campaign in an unrecoverable position. He can't run on his record. The day he took office most Americans believed that the country was headed in the wrong direction and that reality has not changed for the better in any appreciable way during his four years in office. Moreover, he has not articulated a plan of action for his second term. Governor Romney's AER initiative will expose the fact that President Obama has no countervailing alternative to offer the American people. Once that becomes clear in the minds of Independent voters in the Swing States, the President will lose.

Governor Romney should close his next debate with the President by saying, “The American people are hurting, Mr. President. They know the nation is heading in the wrong direction for them and for their children. Millions of our citizens can't find a job. Millions more have jobs that do not challenge them or put enough bread on the table. You've had four years to fix this problem and you have failed. I know how to put America back to work. And I have just described it in a way that the American people can understand and support. On January 25^th, 2010, Mr. President, you told Diane Sawyer on ABC World News, 'I'd rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president.' I believe the American people will and should hold you to your own standard on November 6^th.”

That concludes the proposal that I sent to Governor Romney.

THE SHADOW'S PREDICTIONS:

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

The GOP currently controls the House 241-191. There are three vacancies. In order to take control of the chamber the Democrats need to gain about 25 seats. It's not going to happen.

Unlike the House election of 2006, 2008, and 2010, Tuesday's election will not be a Wave Election in which one party decimates the other. The ten-year census in 2010 triggered the redrawing of congressional lines in most states. Both parties adopted the same defensive redistricting strategy. Their principal objective was to reconfigure districts wherever possible to shore up incumbents who might otherwise be vulnerable to defeat this year. Having done that both parties then attempted to invade the turf of the other. That process was particularly helpful to the Democrats in in Illinois and California, and it has advantaged the Republicans here in North Carolina.

And that brings us to the race that folks here in the mountains care most about, the 11^th district that Democrat Heath Shuler has represented since 2007. By gaining control of the state legislature in 2010 for the first time in over a century, the GOP was in a position to recast congressional district lines to their advantage. And that is exactly what they did. In so doing they put four incumbent Democrats at risk, including Heath Shuler. And that is why he chose not to seek reelection in a district that no longer includes the Democratic stronghold of Asheville.

The battle here in the 11^th pits Shuler's former Chief of Staff, Hayden Rogers, against Republican Mark Meadows. Meadows, a conservative who has brilliantly avoided being branded as a mouthpiece for the Tea Party will win Tuesday. It will not be close. Meadows wins going away.

The much more interesting question will be whether Meadows will be able to maintain his independence once he becomes a member of the Tea Party dominated Republican Caucus in the House. If he can successfully walk that tightrope, he likely will be this district's Congressman for as long as he wishes. If he can't, he won't be around long enough to get much accomplished.

When the dust settles tomorrow night the Republicans will have lost a handful of seats, but will still retain their majority in the House by a margin of 235-200.

THE SENATE

While the rise of the Tea Party in 2010 enabled the Republicans to take control of the House, its effect on the Senate has been a disaster. Prior to the 2010 election the Democrats controlled the Senate 59-41. After the Republican Wave Election in 2010 the GOP had gained 6 Senate seats and the Democrats margin of control had been reduced to 53-47. But that six seat gain obscures what really happened. If fact the GOP had an excellent opportunity to pick up four additional Senate seats in 2010 which it did not because its nominees were so weak they never had a chance to win. All of these nominees in Delaware, West Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada were Tea Party zealots who turned out to be an embarrassment to themselves, the Republican Party, and the voters in their states. Had the GOP captured those four seats the Republicans would have taken control of the Senate in 2010. Remember these four lost seats as we begin our analysis of the Senate election tomorrow.

The Democrats control the Senate 53-47 headed into tomorrow's election. 33 seats are up in this cycle—23 controlled by the Democrats and 10 controlled by the GOP. After the votes are counted, the Democrat's margin will narrow to 51-49.

And just like the Tea Party needlessly sacrificed four senate seats in 2010 they will be responsible for flushing three more seats down the toilet in this election.

In the Pine Tree state of Maine longtime moderate Republican Olympia Snowe became so disheartened with the Tea Party and the Left Wing radicals she did not seek reelection. She would have been a shoo-in for reelection had she run. That seat will turn over with election of Independent, Angus King, who will caucus with the Democrats.

In the Show-Me state of Missouri the GOP nominee, Congressman Todd Akin, squares off against Senator Claire McCaskill. Akin is a fierce Tea Party stalwart. Like Majority Leader, Harry Reid two years ago, McCaskill was considered to be the most vulnerable Democrat in this year's cycle. The seat was considered to be a certain Republican pick-up. Then Akin opened his mouth and said that “legitimate rape” rarely leads to pregnancies and forces female bodies to shut down. The GOP was forced to disown Akin, and he will lose.

In the Hoosier state of Indiana Richard Mourdock, a Tea Party activist defeated longtime moderate Senator Richard Lugar in the Republican primary election. Mourdock is opposed by Democratic Congressman, Joe Donnelly. Indiana is a Republican state and Governor Romney will win it handily. There was every good reason to expect that Mourdock would also win keeping the seat safely in the Republican column. But in a debate with Donnelly last month he stated, ”I came to realize that life is a gift of God. And I think that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape that it is something that God intended to happen”. Mourdock loses tonight, and another Republican seat is needlessly lost.

In Connecticut Independent-Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman is retiring. The contest is between Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy and Linda McMahon, the Chief Executive of World Wrestling Entertainment. She was the Republican nominee for another open Senate seat in Connecticut two years ago and she lost badly. This time she has run a more formidable campaign, and, like two years ago, she has poured millions of dollars of her own personal wealth into the campaign. But in a Smack Down in the Nutmeg State Linda McMahon is pinned again. Murphy wins.

In an open seat in Virginia former Governor and Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Tim Kaine is opposed by former Republican Governor and Senator, George Allen. Allen was defeated in a bid to seek reelection to the Senate in 2006 when he twice unwisely referred to an Indian-American who was filming an Allen Campaign event in Breaks, Virginia as a “Macaca”. Macaca is a pejorative epithet and uttering it helped to defeat Allen's bid for reelection in 2006, destroyed his Presidential ambitions in 2008, and will contribute to his defeat tomorrow. Tim Kaine wins in the Old Dominion.

In Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin is opposed by former Governor Tommy Thompson in a bid to take the open seat created by the retirement of Democratic Senator Herb Kohl. Baldwin is one of the most liberal members of the House and was the first openly lesbian person elected to the Wisconsin Assembly. The race has been too close to call for months. The Shadow predicts that Thompson will win the Badger State in a squeaker.

The retirement of Democrat Kent Conrad creates another open seat battle in the Peace Garden State of North Dakota, and this one is going to be close—real close. Former state attorney general, Heidi Heitkamp is the Democrat and she is opposed by Republican Congressman Rick Berg. Mitt Romney will carry North Dakota handily. Although Heitkamp has proved to be a skilled, likable, and formidable campaigner, Berg wins this race.

In Montana first term Democratic Senator Jon Tester seeks reelection. He is opposed by Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg. Two strong and opposing political philosophies are alive and well in Montana. The base of the Treasure State's Democratic tradition is rooted in mining and labor unions. The Republican base is rooted in fierce individualism and inherent distrust of government—especially the Federal Government. Tester and Rehberg are each strong candidates and this campaign has been close from the git go. It has been bitterly negative with both sides spending huge amounts of cash on negative advertising. But when all is said and done Senator Tester will be defeated by the rancher who, when he's not voting in Congress, raises cashmere goats.

Arizona features another open seat contest brought about by the retirement of Republican Senator John Kyl. Republican Congressman Jeff Flake is opposed by former United States Surgeon General, Richard Carmona, the Democrat. Carmona is a physician, was Surgeon General in the Administration of Bush 43, was raised in Harlem, is of Puerto Rican descent, and was a member of the U.S. Army Special Forces.

Mitt Romney will carry the reliably Republican Grand Canyon State. But Carmona is a formidable candidate and will make it close. But the GOP should be able to hold this seat.

In the Silver State of Nevada Republican Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate after the forced departure of disgraced Senator John Ensign. Now Heller seeks election. He is opposed by Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley whose district includes “The Strip” in Las Vegas. Berkley is strongly supported by Senate Majority leader, Harry Reid, and there is no doubt that Harry Reid will use his formidable get out the vote machine in Clark County (Las Vegas) for both President Obama and Berkley. But unlike two years ago when that machine put Reid back into the Senate, it won't get the job done for Berkley. Heller wins.

In the Bay State Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, seeks reelection. He is opposed by Democrat, Elizabeth Warren, a former Obama adviser and Harvard professor.. Brown is likable, has been hard working, and is something of a rarity. He's a moderate Republican. Warren is a left wing ideologue. On a level playing field Warren's no match for Brown. But Massachusetts is no level playing field. It's overwhelmingly Democratic and President Obama will carry it decisively. However, this race is The Shadow's upset special. Even though Warren leads in all the polls, I predict Brown will be reelected.

And there you have it. When all is said and done the Democrats will control the Senate by a margin of 51-49. Of course, you can figure out how different it would have been for the Republicans were it not for the Tea Party's penchant for self inflicted destruction. Had the Tea Party not flushed those seven seats down the toilet, the Republicans would control the Senate with a 56 vote majority.

THE PRESIDENCY

There is no doubt that Barack Obama inherited a nation in desperate straits. It was not trouble of his making. He was swept into office on a brilliantly run campaign that promised HOPE AND CHANGE. That is exactly what the American people wanted, voted for, and expected. Now with perfect hindsight, it's evident that President Obama did not deliver on his promise.

One only needs to look at the enactment of three bills that indelibly bear the signature of his first term—the Stimulus, Obamacare, and Financial Reform. Each of them is deeply flawed and each was enacted in a way that took the definition hyper partisanship to a level never previously seen in Washington. Within months of taking office HOPE AND CHANGE degenerated into MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY.

More damaging to the president is that the Stimulus did not come close to jump starting an economy in free fall, and Obamacare polarized the nation. Together they spawned the rise of the Tea Party. And Financial Reform does not address the problem of too big to fail for the Wall Street banks.

Finally and unbelievably, the president has not laid out a set of specific proposals going forward that would serve as a compelling basis for his reelection and second term in office. He appears not to have realized that the Divine Right of Kings doesn't play well in America. Whether such a stupendous blunder arises out of arrogance or incompetence doesn't really matter. What does matter is that Barack Obama's incredible luck, dating all the way back to his election to the State Legislature in Illinois, is going to run out tonight.

There are 538 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win. Unfortunately, there has never been any doubt with respect to how most states will cast their vote for President. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia are solid Blue. That gives the President 237 electoral votes. Twenty-three states are solid Red. That gives Governor Romney 191 electoral votes. There are nine battleground states with 110 electoral votes. They are: FL(29), NC(15), VA(13), NH(4), OH(18), WI(10), IA(6), CO(9), and NV(6).

That so many states are uncompetitive is a reflection of the polarizing racial and gender divide that has crippled the Federal Government. The Blues are overwhelmingly made up of single or divorced white women, individuals possessing high levels of education and income, African-Americans, and Latinos. The Reds are overwhelmingly made up of white men, married white women, evangelical Christians, and individual without a college education. In Washington their elected representatives hate one another.

Thus, almost the entire presidential campaign has been waged in the nine battleground states. Among the nine, Ohio is the most significant. Ohio has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1944, except in 1960. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. That makes Ohio the 800 pound gorilla for any Republican seeking the presidency. To win tomorrow's election Governor Romney must win Ohio. And win it he will.

Governor Romney will do well enough in suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland to slightly offset Obama's huge margins in the cores of those cities. In addition, Romney will roll up very large numbers in southeastern Ohio where most of the state's evangelical Christians reside and where coal is, and natural gas soon will be, king.

Governor Romney will also win at least five of the remaining battleground states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado. The president will likely win the remaining three battleground states: Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada.

Governor Romney will claim the White House with 279 electoral votes. President Obama will win 259 electoral votes. The popular vote will be very close—Romney 50.4%, Obama 48.7%.

But know this, if Romney wins, America will not be out of the woods. A Tea Party controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate is a proven recipe for catastrophe. Whether President Romney can bring a recalcitrant and rebellious Congress to heel remains to be seen. It will require a level of imagination, boldness of ideas, and guts that none of us has yet seen him demonstrate.

Now, if The Shadow is wrong and we end up with another four years of Barack Obama, the nation will have saddled itself with a man whose ability to act the role of the President is remarkable. It has been a performance worthy of an Oscar. But acting like a President versus being an effective President at a time of national crisis are not the same. Obama and his campaign assumed you wouldn't notice the difference.

WHO LOST TOMORROW'S ELECTION?

We began with the question of who won tomorrow's election. Let's end with who lost it. I think that's the really important question. If the President is reelected tomorrow, and you think that Mitt Romney lost the election, you're wrong. If Governor Romney wins tomorrow night, and you think the President lost the election, you're wrong.

In fact, it probably won't make any difference which of them wins tomorrow night. Let me just repeat that for emphasis. It probably won't make any difference whether President Obama or Governor Romney wins tomorrow night. Why? Because in either case America loses!

Now I know that's counter intuitive. I know that most of you believe strongly that it's vital that one of these two men win and the other lose. And there is no doubt in my mind or yours that the vast majority of voters believe that America will either move forward or backward depending on whether the President or Governor Romney takes the oath of office next January 20^th.

I'm here to tell you that's not the case. America's been stuck in a rut for almost two decades. At a minimum it dates from 1995 when Newt Gingrich engineered the Republican takeover of the House which ended 40 years of House Republicans wandering in the wilderness. A couple of year later the Monica Lewinsky affair hit the front pages and that emasculated President Clinton. Speaker Gingrich smelled blood, the impeachment process began, and deadlock overran Washington.

President Bush and his Republican majorities on Capitol Hill wrongly took us into war in Iraq, exploded the deficit and the debt, and never saw the coming economic implosion on the horizon.

President Obama and his Democratic majorities on the Hill promised Hope and Change and didn't deliver on the promise. Instead the adopted a take it or leave it approach on both Obamacare and the Stimulus legislation. That approach tore the country in half. And that gave rise to the Tea Party which has been on a scorched earth policy since taking over the House two years ago.

During this period America's has been adrift. We teeter on the edge of national decline. None of the major problems the nation faces is being addressed. Tomorrow's election, no matter who wins, almost certainly will not change this calculus of deadlock and drift.

It's not their fault. It's our fault. The American people are too selfish, too partisan, and too stupid. It's a deserved fate of our own making. It's an indictment of democracy and self government.

Thank you.

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