Paul Ryan’s Hail Mary

By

LeRoy Goldman

GUEST COLUMNIST

Asheville Citizen-Times

April 22, 2016

Not long ago House Speaker Paul Ryan made it official. He’s not seeking the GOP presidential nomination this year. He said, “Let me be clear, I do not want nor will I accept the Republican nomination... Count me out.”

Some will assume that he’s being coy, and that he really is angling to be the nominee who emerges from a deadlocked Republican convention this July in Cleveland. After all, it was not all that long ago that he repeatedly stated that he had no interest in becoming Speaker of the House. We all know how that ended. Maybe he’s up to the same game again. Don’t think so.

An alternative theory is both straightforward and plausible. Ryan is young, 46. Thus, time is on his side. He can wait, and wait, and wait — until 2036, if necessary. Maybe he’s simply being cautious until the current mess blows over. Don’t think so.

One of Paul Ryan’s many strengths is that he’s really smart about the intersection between politics and policy. Not only does that set him apart and above his Republican peers, it has enabled him to see clearly the depth of the calamity the GOP now faces. The operative question is not who will win the nomination, or whether that person can win in November. The operative question is whether the Republican Party can adapt and reform itself, or die.

Ryan’s “count me out” comment is all about the effort to radically reform and preserve the Republican Party. It’s a daunting task, a Hail Mary like none before. Have you ever seen a Hail Mary where the quarterback not only throws the pass, but also catches it in the end zone? Of course, you haven’t. But that’s what Paul Ryan is attempting to do with the catch of his own pass coming in a year divisible by four sometime between 2020 and 2036.

Ryan understands that, while it might be possible to secure the nomination in a deadlocked convention this summer, it would only make him part of the rubble as the party first implodes and then loses in November. Ryan understands what his nomination in Cleveland would trigger. He knows it would enable both Trump and Cruz to convince their supporters that indeed the GOP runs a crooked craps game. That’s a road Ryan won’t take, and that’s why he said, “count me out.”

But Ryan also knows another truth. He knows that both Trump and Cruz are losers in November. More than anything else their ascendancy illuminates the GOP’s death spiral. Trump is a con man with not a clue about how to govern. Cruz is a modern day Joe McCarthy who will flame out so brilliantly that he may cost the GOP control of the Senate.

Ryan’s strategy is to expand the party, not shrink it. To accomplish that he knows that the party must prove to voters that it is open and welcoming, and that it has workable policies in both realms of domestic and foreign policy. He knows that calling for the repeal of Obamacare with no replacement won’t fly. He knows that bombing ISIS into oblivion isn’t possible. He intends to come forward with alternatives to the GOP’s obsession with blind opposition. If you believe in a two-party system, wish him luck.

It’s not hard to imagine the relish Democrats will have reading this. What a delight! Here they have Hillary Clinton, who is a shrill voice of the past, who is caught between a black president she must defend and millions of Democrats, especially young Democrats, who find a 74-year-old socialist preferable to her, and who is thought to be untrustworthy by two-thirds of the nation. And she’s going to win anyway. It’s a miracle! Don’t think so.

Danger lurks in Democratland. They too run a crooked craps game. The excitement that Bernie Sanders has engendered is not unlike what propels Trump, fury directed at the political establishment. The Democrats’ destructive day of reckoning is inevitable. It will be poetic justice if it occurs during Hillary’s presidency.

Pay close attention to two things. First, will Sanders make nice with Hillary and bury the hatchet by the time of the convention in Philadelphia? Probably so, and, if he does, he will betray the central tenant of his remarkable campaign, the call for a political revolution. More importantly, watch the reaction among his supporters if he betrays them. It likely triggers the firestorm that ultimately engulfs the Democratic Party and Hillary’s presidency.

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Call it America's second civil war

By

LeRoy Goldman

BlueRidgeNow

April 17, 2016

Do you remember President John F. Kennedy’s call for diversity in his commencement address at American University on June 10, 1963? Kennedy proposed new talks with the Soviet Union aimed at reducing nuclear testing. He said, “And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity.”

Today we could benefit by applying the lessons of Kennedy’s call for diversity and tolerance to the corrosive polarization that grips American society and government. The Pew Research Center has been meticulously documenting this growing schism for years.

Pew’s research shows that more Americans than ever hold intensely partisan political views. These partisans believe the opposing party’s policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation’s well-being. The 2016 race for the White House doubles down on this counterproductive and dangerous partisanship.

Let’s start with a notion that many will find really hard to accept, especially those who are entrenched Republican conservatives and those who are entrenched Democratic liberals.

Take a deep breath and open your mind. Do you realize that Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are far more alike than they are different from one another? They are. The next president, no matter which of the four, will have no real chance of successfully implementing his or her agenda, and that assumes the winner even has a coherent agenda. So far, all we have are vacuous slogans like “Fighting For Us” from Clinton and “Make America Great Again” from Trump.

The similarity among these four Tweedledees and Tweedledums is real and disqualifying. They all assume you and I are stupid enough to not notice that they have no specific set of achievable policy proposals to address the nation’s many domestic and international security challenges.

And worst of all, each of them seeks the presidency for personal gain rather than for the opportunity it gives them to serve us. Were it otherwise, they would be in overdrive telling us in detail what they plan to do for us and, more importantly, how they would achieve it in stalemated Washington.

None of them deserves our vote.

None of them will run a campaign that reaches out broadly to America. The Democrats will attempt to win by relying upon their stalwarts in Blue Missile Silo America — single women, African-Americans, Hispanics, Jews, Muslims and LGBTs. The Republicans will rely on their stalwarts in Red Missile Silo America — white men, married women, the tea party and evangelicals. We have become a warring nation riven by gender and race. It’s America’s second civil war.

If Clinton or Sanders wins this November, the GOP-controlled House will be the graveyard of major legislation sent to the Hill. If Trump or Cruz wins, the Senate filibuster will produce the same deadly result.

It’s vital to remember that this long-standing stalemate in Washington is not inevitable. It’s not due to any fundamental flaw in the Constitution. It can be fixed, but the fix must come from us, not these Washington slugs.

Come back with me now to the '70s, a time when Washington worked. I had the privilege then to work in the Senate, so I can speak firsthand. At the time, Congress was controlled by large Democratic majorities. Prior to the 1976 election, we had to deal with Republican presidents, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.

And guess what? The Senate worked together with them cooperatively on both domestic and foreign policy issues: clean air and water, the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency, the war on cancer, health manpower, the opening to China, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and ending the Vietnam War.

How did this happen? For openers, both parties on the Hill were heterogeneous, not homogenous. While most Democrats in the Senate were liberal, for every Kennedy and Walter Mondale there was a conservative like John Stennis of Mississippi. While most Republicans were conservative, for every Bob Dole and Barry Goldwater, there was a liberal like Jack Javits of New York.

That intraparty diversity made an enormous and beneficial difference. It necessarily bred trust and compromise that transcended blind party loyalty.

Moreover, our standard operating procedure on all legislation was to work hand in hand with the Republicans. Amendments they proposed in committee or on the Senate floor that improved the legislation were willingly accepted. Amendments that we could not accept were ones the GOP was nonetheless permitted to offer during floor debate. Thus, use of the Senate filibuster to block legislation was rare. It was never employed on a health care bill out of my committee.

Simply repeating what we’ve done for the past 20 years and expecting a better outcome is madness. Americans must summon the courage to reject their blue and red safe spaces before it’s too late.

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The GOP will fall victim to own angry, evangelical excesses

The GOP will fall victim to own angry, evangelical excesses | The Charlotte Observer

By

LeRoy Goldman

April 6, 2016

Chuck Todd, the moderator of MSNBC's MTP Daily, asked a panel of political experts recently to assess the fight for the GOP presidential nomination. His question was, “Where is the beating heart of the GOP?” None of them answered the question. They all deflected. Why? Because it was the wrong question. Wrong because the elephant's heart no longer beats. The autopsy this November will determine the cause of death was suicide.

The Republican Party has become its own worst enemy – a victim of its angry and evangelical excesses. It can no longer win a national election. That stark reality is hard, if not impossible, for many Republicans to comprehend or change because in Congress and in most states the GOP is ascendant.

The Republicans recaptured the House in 2010, added the Senate in 2014, control 31 Governor's Mansions, and also control 68 of 98 state legislative chambers. In no less than 23 states, including North Carolina, the GOP controls the Governor's Mansion and both chambers of the state legislature. Much of that electoral success stems directly from voter antipathy to President Obama's overreach, beginning with Obamacare in 2009 and culminating with the Iran nuclear agreement last year. Thus it would seem that any suggestion that the GOP is on life support is either wishful thinking by an overly zealous Democrat or simply inaccurate. Neither is the case.

The war to win the GOP presidential nomination – and it is a war – is one that no one would have predicted a year ago. Certainly it was obvious that there would be multiple combatants. It was just as clear that most would be very conservative such as Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and Marco Rubio and some would be mainstream moderates such as Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich. While the outcome was opaque, the battle lines seemed clear, only because nobody gave so much as a passing thought to Donald Trump. More importantly, the GOP power brokers paid no mind to what fuels Trump's tank – grassroots Republican fury directed at them for being the marionettes of K Street and Wall Street.

And, thus, a field of 17 GOP presidential hopefuls is now down to three, Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. And here's the bizarre twist. It's clear that the GOP nominee will be either Trump or Cruz, both of whom are losers to Hillary Clinton in November based on the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 11 percent and 3 percent respectively. On the other hand Kasich, who has virtually no shot at the nomination, defeats Clinton by 7 percent in the RCP polling. There you have the GOP Death Wish.

Now it is not uncommon or particularly significant for either party to nominate a weak candidate when it knows a loss looms in November.

But this year the GOP should win handily. Obama has been the most polarizing president in the nation's history. His approval numbers have been in the tank for most of the past two years. Two-thirds of the nation believes the country is on the wrong track. Hillary Clinton is distrusted by a majority of voters, including many Democrats. Furthermore, in order to assure herself of overwhelming support among African-Americans and Hispanics, she is forced to embrace Obama and his policies. It's a losing calculus.

However, the GOP, dominated mainly by angry whites and evangelical zealots, is going to elect her as it commits suicide. Disregarding the adage that when you're in a hole stop digging, the GOP has dug one big enough to bury an elephant.

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