Paul Ryan’s Hail Mary

By

LeRoy Goldman

GUEST COLUMNIST

Asheville Citizen-Times

April 22, 2016

Not long ago House Speaker Paul Ryan made it official. He’s not seeking the GOP presidential nomination this year. He said, “Let me be clear, I do not want nor will I accept the Republican nomination... Count me out.”

Some will assume that he’s being coy, and that he really is angling to be the nominee who emerges from a deadlocked Republican convention this July in Cleveland. After all, it was not all that long ago that he repeatedly stated that he had no interest in becoming Speaker of the House. We all know how that ended. Maybe he’s up to the same game again. Don’t think so.

An alternative theory is both straightforward and plausible. Ryan is young, 46. Thus, time is on his side. He can wait, and wait, and wait — until 2036, if necessary. Maybe he’s simply being cautious until the current mess blows over. Don’t think so.

One of Paul Ryan’s many strengths is that he’s really smart about the intersection between politics and policy. Not only does that set him apart and above his Republican peers, it has enabled him to see clearly the depth of the calamity the GOP now faces. The operative question is not who will win the nomination, or whether that person can win in November. The operative question is whether the Republican Party can adapt and reform itself, or die.

Ryan’s “count me out” comment is all about the effort to radically reform and preserve the Republican Party. It’s a daunting task, a Hail Mary like none before. Have you ever seen a Hail Mary where the quarterback not only throws the pass, but also catches it in the end zone? Of course, you haven’t. But that’s what Paul Ryan is attempting to do with the catch of his own pass coming in a year divisible by four sometime between 2020 and 2036.

Ryan understands that, while it might be possible to secure the nomination in a deadlocked convention this summer, it would only make him part of the rubble as the party first implodes and then loses in November. Ryan understands what his nomination in Cleveland would trigger. He knows it would enable both Trump and Cruz to convince their supporters that indeed the GOP runs a crooked craps game. That’s a road Ryan won’t take, and that’s why he said, “count me out.”

But Ryan also knows another truth. He knows that both Trump and Cruz are losers in November. More than anything else their ascendancy illuminates the GOP’s death spiral. Trump is a con man with not a clue about how to govern. Cruz is a modern day Joe McCarthy who will flame out so brilliantly that he may cost the GOP control of the Senate.

Ryan’s strategy is to expand the party, not shrink it. To accomplish that he knows that the party must prove to voters that it is open and welcoming, and that it has workable policies in both realms of domestic and foreign policy. He knows that calling for the repeal of Obamacare with no replacement won’t fly. He knows that bombing ISIS into oblivion isn’t possible. He intends to come forward with alternatives to the GOP’s obsession with blind opposition. If you believe in a two-party system, wish him luck.

It’s not hard to imagine the relish Democrats will have reading this. What a delight! Here they have Hillary Clinton, who is a shrill voice of the past, who is caught between a black president she must defend and millions of Democrats, especially young Democrats, who find a 74-year-old socialist preferable to her, and who is thought to be untrustworthy by two-thirds of the nation. And she’s going to win anyway. It’s a miracle! Don’t think so.

Danger lurks in Democratland. They too run a crooked craps game. The excitement that Bernie Sanders has engendered is not unlike what propels Trump, fury directed at the political establishment. The Democrats’ destructive day of reckoning is inevitable. It will be poetic justice if it occurs during Hillary’s presidency.

Pay close attention to two things. First, will Sanders make nice with Hillary and bury the hatchet by the time of the convention in Philadelphia? Probably so, and, if he does, he will betray the central tenant of his remarkable campaign, the call for a political revolution. More importantly, watch the reaction among his supporters if he betrays them. It likely triggers the firestorm that ultimately engulfs the Democratic Party and Hillary’s presidency.

This is My Opinion ----- What Do You Think ?

Please Contact Me at:  EmailMe