Who will be the biggest loser - Clinton, Trump, or us?

 Who will be the biggest loser - Clinton, Trump, or us?

LeRoy Goldman

Guest Columnist

Citizen-Times

July 29, 2016

Only an American TV reality show could make a success out of deeming the biggest loser to be the winner. But that’s the way it works on “The Biggest Loser,” the long-running NBC TV reality show that pits teams of morbidly obese individuals against one another to see which of them can lose the most weight. Although I have never seen a single episode of the show, I’m confident that its staying power has everything to do with the fact that it resonates with the three quarters of the American people who are overweight or obese. For them it’s vicarious weight loss. 

But this year the presidential election has become the political version of the The Biggest Loser. And this one’s not vicarious. All of us get to have a say in determining which of the two losers, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, wins. It’s a “Reality” show gone real.

Based upon what you hear on television and read in the newspapers and on the web, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in most polls and appears to be the likely winner on Nov. 8. For example, the Las Vegas betting line makes her the favorite, as does Nate Silver’s 538 statistical model.

But don’t get ahead of yourself. A year ago none of the political elites in either party took Trump’s quest for the GOP nomination seriously. Yet Trump has proven them all wrong.

Clinton’s greatest asset is the structural advantage that the Democrats have in the Electoral College. If you look at the last four presidential elections, the same basic pattern repeats itself. The Democrats can count on winning 19 states and the District of Columbia netting them 247 of the 270 electoral votes it takes to win the presidency. The GOP can count on winning 23 states but only 191 electoral votes.

That leaves the eight swing states with their total of 100 electoral votes. Clinton only needs to win 23 of those 100 swing state electoral votes. For example, were Clinton to win the swing state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes, she’s President. Trump, on the other hand, faces a much more formidable challenge. He’s got to win at least 79 of the 100 electoral votes in the eight swing states.

Clinton’s Campaign is built on the assumption that this year’s election will repeat this basic electoral pattern that advantages Democrats with their concentrations of non-white voters in populous states like California, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. It’s their ace in the hole.

But what if they’ve miscalculated?

The latest Rasmussen poll shows that only 21 percent of likely voters believe the nation is headed in the right direction. An astounding 72 percent believe we’re headed in the wrong direction. Clinton’s Campaign thumbs its nose at the national outcry for change. It proposes more of the same, in effect Obama’s third term, but with her at the helm. But she’s no Obama in at least one crucial respect.

The July NYT/CBS national poll of voters reveals that 67 percent do not believe Clinton is honest and trustworthy. Imbedded in that cohort are many Independents and Democrats. Thus, an untrustworthy Clinton is attempting to sell the same old, same old to an angry electorate. In sharp contrast, Trump has indicted the entirety of Washington’s political class. Hillary Clinton’s past quarter century in Washington makes her the perfect poster child and punching bag for his onslaught.

If 2016 turns out to be a change election, Hillary Clinton will lose. If so, expect significant changes in the “traditional” Electoral College map. If Trump wins, he will carry several normally Democratic states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. And that will negate the Democrat’s Electoral College ace in the hole.

In case you’re wondering, I’ve got no dog in this fight. If the election were held today, I would not vote for either Clinton or Trump.

The tragedy is that America is about to elect an individual who will be unwilling or unable to make and implement the tough decisions necessary to arrest national decline and heal national division. Clinton and Trump in their own unique ways are losers. Electing either of them makes us the biggest loser.

How much better it would be for all of us, if both of them were relegated to being the finalists on the TV reality show. For that they both have way more than enough of the right stuffing.

LeRoy Goldman lives in Flat Rock and can be reached at:

EmailMe