Final of a three-part series. For parts one and two, see Friday’s and Sunday’s editions.

By:

LeRoy Goldman

Columnist

BlueRidgeNow.com

Times-News 11-07-2016

Get ready for Madam President

This is the 18th presidential election I have attempted to predict. It's a challenge in large part because polling data for months have shown that a very large majority of the American people don't want to see either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

Clinton is untrustworthy and an architect of the Washington that Americans have come to despise, a Washington designed to serve itself, not us. Meanwhile, Trump has proven he is not prepared by experience or temperament to be president.

That means we can be certain that, regardless of which of them wins Tuesday, America loses.

But before we get too uppity about how the blame for this sorry situation belongs in Washington, or with one or both of the political parties, or with too much cash from too few donors, or with the hackers in the Kremlin, let’s face the truth. Clinton and Trump are on the ballot because we put them there. We are the problem, and as long as we continue to deny that truth, there's no way out of the growing darkness in a polarized America.

But like it or not, we're going to be stuck with one of them.

The presidential election is actually the aggregation of 51 separate elections in the states and the District of Columbia. Voters in each jurisdiction will select electors who are pledged to one candidate or the other. Every state's number of electors is determined by its number of members in the House of Representatives, plus two for its senators.

In all, there are 538 electoral votes (435 House members plus 100 senators plus three for the District of Columbia). Winning the presidency requires at least a majority, 270.

If we look back at the past four presidential elections, an electoral voting pattern emerges. Typically the Democrats can count on winning 19 states and the District of Columbia with 247 electoral votes. The Republicans can count on winning 23 states with 191 electoral votes.

And then there are the eight swing states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, with 100 electoral votes. In 2000 and 2004, the GOP won most of the swing states. In 2008 and 2012, the Democrats won most of them.

This year, the swing states will be more evenly divided. Clinton can survive that, but Trump can't unless he wins at least one state from Clinton's blue fortress. The ones to watch are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

In all presidential elections, both candidates do whatever they think they can get away with to demonize their opponent. But Clinton has won this gutter fight. She's won it because she's had a secret and unexpected weapon — Donald Trump!

Trump has alienated women, Hispanics, African-Americans, Muslims, Jews, Asians, LGBTs, the disabled, independents and evangelicals. That's a tour de force, giving new meaning to Forrest Gump's mama's truism, “Stupid is as stupid does.”

In so doing, it appears Trump has forfeited his chance to win any of Clinton's blue states like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, and that likely dooms him. Republicans can afford to lose badly in cities like Philly, Detroit or Milwaukee, but not if they also lose badly in their surrounding suburbs by forfeiting the women's vote.

It's the lesson the GOP is incapable of learning, and its kiss of death.

However, over the past two weeks, Clinton's comfortable lead has all but vanished, to the dismay of her campaign and most of the media. It's worth noting that the Democrats, some Republicans and most of the press have been saying from the moment Trump declared his candidacy that he had no chance and would flame out. But saying it doesn't make it happen. And now Trump has momentum, and Clinton is playing defense.

The seemingly mysterious explanation for Trump's resiliency hides in plain sight. It's voter fury aimed directly at Washington. Trump's enduring strength is that he promises change, while Clinton is Washington by another name.

The unanswered question is whether he can overtake Clinton at the finish line. Probably not, but it's going to be close.

• Prediction: Clinton wins, but just barely. In addition to her base of 247 electoral votes, she carries Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Colorado (9) and Nevada (6) for a total of 279. Trump adds to his base of 191 electoral votes by carrying Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) and Iowa (6) for a total of 259.

• Caveat: I'm not betting the ranch on this prediction. If Trump snatches one of those three blue states in the Rust Belt, he'll win. If so, it would be an upset for the ages! Move over, Harry Truman.

• Bellwethers: What I'll be watching Tuesday night is the vote in the nation's two best presidential election bellwethers: Hillsborough County, Greater Tampa, Fla., and Vigo County, Terre Haute, Ind. If they both vote the same way, there's your winner.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident and welcomes comments.  Please contact me at:

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