GOP will keep Senate ... barely

GOP will keep Senate ... barely

By:

LeRoy Goldman

Columnist

BlueRidgeNow.com

Times-News Online

November 6, 2016

Second of a three-part series. Coming Monday: Predicting the presidential race.

The Republicans currently control the Senate, 54-46. Thirty-four Senate seats are up this year. The Democrats are defending 10 and the Republicans are defending 24.

Thus the battle begins with the an advantage to the Democrats because they have fewer seats at risk. This is so because the last time these seats were up was 2010, and that was a Republican year as voters delivered a strong rebuke to President Barack Obama based upon their opposition to Obamacare.

In 2010, the Republicans picked up Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Arkansas. The four in the Rust Belt are now in varying stages of jeopardy. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s start with the Senate races that appear the easiest to call.

There are 24 such seats, 15 controlled by the GOP and nine controlled by the Democrats. In these states, I predict none will shift from one party to the other. Remember, incumbents seeking re-election typically have an enormous advantage over their opponents. In the main, that advantage is due to higher name recognition and because they have a far larger war chest from which to fund their campaigns.

The GOP will retain seats in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Utah. The Democrats will retain sets in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington.

Senate control, therefore, will be determined in the remaining 10 battleground states. Each of these contests is close enough so that their fate may well be significantly influenced by the top line vote for the presidency. And in the closing days of the campaign, the presidential race has tightened rapidly and significantly.

Battleground states

• Florida: Incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is opposed by Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy. Rubio has had a single-digit lead in the polls throughout the campaign. Keep your eye on the vote in Hillsborough County (Greater Tampa). The winner there will carry the Sunshine State. Rubio survives.

• Illinois: Incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk is opposed by Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. Kirk sleeps with the fishes in what has become the Royal Blue Land of Lincoln. A Democratic gain.

• Wisconsin: Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, a conservative firebrand, is opposed by former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Johnson loses. Democratic gain.

• New Hampshire: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is opposed by Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte has led by a whisker throughout much of the campaign. She’s tried to walk the tightrope of Trump I love you, I love you not. But she loses her balance. Hassan wins. Democratic gain.

• Indiana: Republican Congressman Todd Young opposes former Democratic Sen. and Gov. Evan Bayh for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Dan Coats. Indiana is a traditionally Republican state, and Young has managed to successfully brand Bayh as a card-carrying member of the Washington establishment. Bayh bites the dust. Young wins.

• Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey opposes Democrat Katie McGinty. McGinty benefits from the hammering Trump will take in the four suburban Philadelphia counties: Chester, Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery. Moderate Republican women in those suburbs reject Trump and Toomey with him. Democratic gain.

• Arizona: Republican Sen. John McCain is opposed by Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. McCain has run scared and run hard. It pays off next Tuesday. He wins.

• Missouri: Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is opposed by Missouri’s Secretary of State Jason Kander. Missouri is a normally Republican state and Blunt has maintained a small but consistent lead of a couple of points. Kander is a Washington outsider who has run a brilliant campaign. Blunt survives, but just barely.

• Nevada: Republican Congressman Joe Heck is opposed by Democratic former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. This is the battle to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Reid is all in for Cortez Masto. Reid’s ace in the hole are the votes of Hispanics in the 60,000-member culinary workers union, most of whom who work on the Vegas Strip. But this time Reid’s magic fails him and the Democrats. Heck wins. Republican gain.

• North Carolina: Republican Sen. Richard Burr is opposed by former N.C. Rep. Deborah Ross. Burr has cleverly exposed Ross as too far left for the Tar Heel State. He also benefits from a downturn in African-American turnout. Burr wins.

PREDICTION: Republicans 51, Democrats 49.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident and welcomes comments.  Please contact me at:

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