House Predictions

Times-News columnist LeRoy Goldman shares election predictions in the first of a three-part series.

By LEROY GOLDMANTimes-News Columnist

* First of a three-part series. Coming Sunday: predictions of the U.S. Senate races.

The conventional thinking for months has been that the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives on Tuesday, but that their majority will be reduced.

Had FBI Director James Comey not dropped his bombshell last Friday concerning new and possibly pertinent information concerning the FBI investigation of possible misuse of classified material by Hillary Clinton when she served as secretary of state, I was prepared to argue that the conventional thinking might well have been off the mark. I was prepared to argue that there was a real chance the Republicans might see their majority in the House gutted or even obliterated by a wave election.

But what Comey did takes that option off the table. He informed Congress in a letter that the FBI had discovered new information possibly pertinent to its investigation of Clinton's home-brewed email system. That new information is in a computer owned by Anthony Weiner, estranged husband of Huma Abedin, one of Clinton's closest political advisers who worked for her at the State Department.

Comey's letter, an October Surprise if there ever was one, will significantly affect the campaign's closing days, expose the internal intrigue within the FBI and between it and its Department of Justice superiors, and possibly have deleterious legal consequences for Clinton and/or her closest aides.

But Comey's letter was brief and opaque, and for good reason. He and the FBI don't yet know what's in the hundreds of thousands of new emails it has discovered.

But here's a capsule summary of what we do know: Last July, Comey held a news conference and then testified before Congress that no reasonable prosecutor would bring charges against Clinton concerning her handling of classified information on her private email system. He did, however, state that she was “extremely careless.” For that, Democrats praised Comey and Republicans condemned him. Regardless of that divergence of reaction, the matter seemed to be closed.

But the FBI was also conducting a completely independent investigation aimed at determining whether Anthony Weiner had been sexting with an underage girl. In that respect, the FBI took possession of Weiner's computer. On it were discovered hundreds of thousands of emails from Abedin that may be pertinent to the FBI's investigation of Clinton.

Comey's letter to Congress alerted it and the public of the FBI’s new discovery. The Clinton campaign and Democrats have now turned their heavy artillery on Comey, alleging he's trying to improperly influence the presidential election.

That allegation is nonsense. But understanding why Comey did what he did is crucial. Comey's letter to Congress was the best of only bad options for him. This is so because there are in the FBI those who believe Comey should have recommended criminal charges against Hillary Clinton last July. Their growing angst now borders on rebellion.

Had Comey not gone public, he risked the information being leaked to the media by the dissidents in the FBI. Then it would have appeared he was concealing the information and covering for Clinton. To his credit, he did not allow that to happen.

What no one yet knows is the content of the emails on Weiner's computer.

But this much is clear. The focus of the election has now shifted from Donald Trump to Clinton, and that's bad for her. That means voters are being reminded of something most already believe: Clinton is untrustworthy.

That won't cause most Democrats to not vote for her. But it will energize Republicans and will likely increase their turnout. And that will likely narrow the gap between Trump and Clinton nationally and in the battleground states.

And lastly, it will benefit down-ballot Republican candidates for the House and the Senate.

That's what saves the day for the GOP House majority. The GOP currently controls the House 247-188. For the Democrats to reclaim the House majority, they have to gain a net of 30 seats. It's not happening. Prediction: Republicans: 231 (-16 seats), Democrats: 204 (+16).

Watch this subset of vulnerable Republican-held seats. The Democrats would have to win virtually all of them, and others like them, to threaten the Republican majority:

1. Florida-26, Miami-Dade, Carlos Curbelo.

2. Iowa-3, Southwest, Des Moines, David Young.

3. New Hampshire-1, Southeast, Manchester, Frank Guinta.

4. Illinois-10, Chicago, Northern suburbs, Robert Dold.

5. New York-24, Upstate N.Y., Syracuse, John Katko.

6. Florida-7, North of Orlando, John Mica.

7. Virginia-10, Northern Virginia, Washington suburbs, Barbara Comstock.

8. Michigan-7, Southern Michigan, Ann Arbor suburbs, Tim Walberg.

LeRoy Goldman is a Flat Rock resident. Reach him at:

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